Cashew Market Stays Firm as China and Europe Pull on Large Kernels

Global cashew prices remain firm, underpinned by steady raw cashew nut (RCN) costs in Vietnam, robust Chinese appetite for large kernels and active Indian buying, while EU demand continues to expand. Lower RCN imports into Vietnam and India tighten the nearby balance, just as Tanzania’s new crop approaches and becomes the next key supply test. The current market is characterized by resilient whole-kernel prices and gradual, disciplined buying rather than aggressive stock-building. Vietnam’s RCN market shows little sign of easing, with stronger differentials for larger nuts as Chinese buyers concentrate on W180, W210 and W240 grades for upcoming holiday programs. India’s kernel demand is broadly healthy but RCN inflows are lagging last year, forcing a shift in origin mix. In Europe, rising kernel imports and higher import values signal sustained end-market demand and a tilt toward more direct sourcing from African processors.

Prices

Vietnamese kernel prices remain firm across the main grades. W320 kernels are trading around $3.10–3.12/lb for medium-good quality, with better qualities for Middle Eastern buyers at $3.15–3.20/lb. Premium large grades are commanding higher levels, with W180 at $4.35–4.60/lb, W210 at $4.10–4.40/lb and W240 at $3.45–3.60/lb, reflecting strong Chinese demand for larger sizes.

Indicative RCN offers into Ho Chi Minh City highlight the firmness of raw material: Indonesian 52 lbs material around $1,840/MT CNF, Côte d'Ivoire 45 lbs at $1,540/MT, Ghana 44 lbs at $1,500/MT and Ghana 43 lbs at $1,470/MT. These levels, together with slightly higher average export prices from Vietnam, are maintaining a solid floor under kernel quotations.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam imported 2.236 million tonnes of RCN from January to mid-September 2026, a 2.7% year-on-year decline. Kernel exports slipped 1.5% to 506,023 tonnes in the same period, yet the average export price rose nearly 4% to $7,069/MT. This combination of slightly lower volumes and higher prices underlines a balanced-to-tight global supply picture, particularly for higher-grade kernels.

In India, RCN imports fell more sharply, down 8.1% year on year to 752,044 tonnes in January–July. The drop is largely due to shipment delays from Côte d'Ivoire and slower exports from Burkina Faso and Togo. Despite this, full-year Indian RCN imports are still expected to exceed 1.2 million tonnes, helped by sharply higher arrivals from Tanzania and Mozambique, which have more than offset reduced West African flows.

European demand is an additional bullish factor. EU kernel imports rose 8.15% year on year to 128,279 tonnes in January–June 2026, while import value increased 16.5% to about $963.7 million, implying higher average unit values. Direct EU imports from African origins surged 36.55% to 30,868 tonnes in January–July, with Côte d'Ivoire supplying over 80% of this volume, reflecting a structural shift toward origin processing in West Africa.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather conditions in Tanzania’s main southern cashew belt are generally favorable, with no signs of widespread stress reported during the latest observation period. There is some concern about unseasonal rainfall during flowering and early fruit setting, but no clear evidence yet of significant yield losses. National meteorological guidance for late September points to largely seasonal patterns in southern coastal regions, supporting a broadly normal crop outlook.

Tanzania’s new-crop auctions are expected to start from October 19, with the official 2026/27 season opening in mid-October. Given Tanzania’s role as a key off-season supplier of large-sized RCN, the size and quality of this crop will be critical for global raw material availability through Q4 and early Q1. Any weather-related downgrades or logistical delays could quickly tighten RCN supply and support further firmness in kernel prices.

Fundamentals & Flows

The sourcing pattern into India has shifted markedly in 2026. Imports from Tanzania have more than doubled to 215,638 tonnes, and Mozambique shipments are up 95% to 35,827 tonnes in January–July. In contrast, Côte d'Ivoire shipments to India are down 42%, and Togo’s exports have fallen nearly 82%. This rebalancing distributes supply risks more across Eastern Africa but increases India’s exposure to the upcoming Tanzanian crop.

India’s kernel exports slipped 4.7% year on year to 18,151 tonnes in January–July, suggesting that more product is being absorbed domestically at current price levels. For Vietnam, slightly lower kernel export volumes but higher average prices point to disciplined selling into a firm demand environment, with capacities running close to normal but without aggressive discounting. EU demand growth and higher unit import values further indicate that downstream buyers are willing to accept increased prices for reliable supply of preferred grades.

Overall, the fundamental picture remains moderately tight: RCN inflows are lagging 2025 levels in both Vietnam and India, while consumer demand in China, India and Europe continues to favor whole white kernels, particularly W180–W320. This is reflected in the firmness of both USD kernel benchmarks and EUR-denominated FOB/FCA offers across Vietnam, India and the EU.

Trading Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)

• Processors / Shellers: With firm RCN offers and only modest downside risk before Tanzania’s auctions clarify supply, maintaining coverage on at least 4–6 weeks of raw nuts appears prudent, especially for factories targeting large grades demanded by China.
• Importers in EU & Middle East: Consider securing Q4–early Q1 needs for W240–W320 now, as continued Chinese buying of large kernels and any delays in Tanzanian exports could lift offers further. Blending in more broken grades can help manage average cost.
• Roasters & Retailers: End-users with exposure to promotional programs over Christmas and Lunar New Year should lock in volumes rather than wait for price dips, as current firmness is grounded in real RCN tightness rather than speculative activity.

3-Day Regional Price Indication / Direction

• Vietnam (Hanoi, FOB): WW240 around 8.02 EUR and WW320 at 7.12 EUR are likely to remain firm to marginally higher as long as RCN offers stay elevated and Chinese large-grade demand persists.
• India (New Delhi, FOB): Whole whites (W240–W320) around 7.10–7.60 EUR show a steady tone, with upside risk if RCN arrivals remain below expectations ahead of peak festival demand.
• EU (Netherlands, FCA Dordrecht): WW320 at 5.20 EUR and other kernel types stable, with a mildly bullish bias driven by firm origin prices and robust EU import demand.