Cashew Kernels Edge Higher as Vietnam Tightens Offers, EU Demand Steady

Cashew kernel prices are firm to slightly higher, led by Vietnam, while India and the Netherlands remain broadly stable with a mild upward bias. Buying interest from Europe stays consistent but cautious, keeping whole grades supported and broken grades more competitively priced. Near-term, the market looks balanced with a modestly bullish tilt rather than a clear breakout. Cashew trading across Vietnam, India and the Netherlands is entering late Q3 with quietly supportive fundamentals. Vietnamese processors report no meaningful recovery in export demand but are holding kernel offers steady to slightly higher, prioritising margin protection over volume. Indian exporters continue to serve both domestic and overseas markets, supported by steady kernel exports and raw nut imports, while Dutch buyers act as a stable gateway into the wider EU snack market. Weather in key growing zones is seasonally wet but not disruptive, suggesting that short‑term price direction will be driven more by demand and logistics than by crop risk.

Prices

Prices below are current quotations in EUR, using the exact delivery terms shown.

Key takeaway: Vietnam has nudged offers higher across whole and broken grades, while Indian FOB and Dutch FCA quotations are unchanged at mid‑September levels.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam remains the leading import hub for raw cashew nuts and a top exporter of kernels, with recent trade data confirming strong inbound raw nut flows into Vietnam and India for processing and re‑export. A Vietnamese exporter commentary from early September notes that the export cashew kernel market has yet to show clear recovery, indicating that sellers are resisting deeper discounts despite only moderate demand.

In India, official export statistics up to July 2026 show steady cashew kernel shipments, in line with the country’s role as a major global supplier. Domestic Indian demand remains structurally strong, with cashew widely used in snacks, bakery and confectionery, which helps underpin baseline offtake even when export demand fluctuates.

The Netherlands continues to function as a key European gateway for processed cashew, with dozens of active buyers and several hundred recent shipments clustered around the Rotterdam/Dordrecht logistics hub. Demand from EU snack and ingredient manufacturers appears steady but price‑sensitive, favouring competitive origin offers and efficient container logistics rather than aggressive spot bidding.

Weather & Crop Outlook (IN, VN)

In Vietnam, the current 10‑day forecast from September 19 points to typical late‑monsoon conditions: scattered showers and thunderstorms over many regions with short sunny intervals, but no major extreme events highlighted nationally. Cashew production zones in the Central Highlands and Southeast are largely past the critical flowering and nut‑setting stages at this time of year, so current rains mainly affect post‑harvest logistics rather than 2026 crop volumes.

India’s main cashew belt (Goa, Karnataka, Kerala and parts of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh) is also in the late phase of the southwest monsoon by mid‑September, a period when heavy rains can briefly disrupt inland transport but rarely alter the already‑harvested crop. Public forecasts for the coming days show no extraordinary weather threats over peninsular India beyond normal seasonal rainfall. Taken together, weather is a neutral short‑term driver; supply and demand factors remain far more important for price direction.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

Recent Vietnamese trade and industry commentary describes a market where whole kernels are broadly stable while broken grades adjust more quickly to demand, matching the current pattern of firmer Vietnamese quotes on WW240/WW320 and modest increases on LWP/WS/SP. Export‑oriented processors report sufficient raw nut availability, helped by ongoing shipments from African origins into Vietnam and India, so the recent firmness is more about cost coverage and cautious selling than shortage.

On the demand side, global consumption trends for cashew as a healthy snack remain positive, but buyers in Europe and North America are selective on price and contract length. Trade data show continued growth in raw and kernel flows into Vietnam and India, underlining their central role in the global processing chain. In the Netherlands, the breadth of active processed‑cashew buyers suggests a competitive downstream landscape, with importers able to switch between origins if differentials widen. Overall, fundamentals point to a well‑supplied yet firm market rather than a tight one.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View

Trading outlook (next 1–2 weeks)

• Buyers needing nearby coverage of Vietnamese whole grades (WW240/WW320) may consider partial bookings at current Hanoi FOB levels, as processors show limited willingness to cut offers further in the short term.
• For broken and lower grades (WS, LWP, LP, SP), there is still some room for negotiation, especially on volume parcels, but the recent small uptick suggests downside is limited for now.
• Indian FOB kernels around New Delhi look fairly valued versus Vietnam; importers can use India to diversify origin risk rather than chase deep discounts.
• EU buyers lifting ex‑warehouse/FCA Dordrecht should continue to benefit from stable pricing; focus on optimising freight and warehousing costs rather than timing a major price break.

3‑day regional directional bias (price tendency)

• Vietnam (Hanoi, FOB): Sideways to slightly firm for WW240/WW320 and main broken grades, supported by exporters’ steady offer levels and no immediate bearish supply shock.
• India (New Delhi, FOB/FCA): Largely sideways; strong domestic demand and ongoing exports offset any pressure from softer global sentiment, keeping prices anchored around current quotes.
• Netherlands (Dordrecht, FCA): Sideways; EU demand is steady but not aggressive, and current FCA levels for both conventional and organic kernels are likely to hold over the next few days.