Indian Cashew Kernels Steady While Domestic Mandi Prices Whipsaw

Indian cashew kernel export prices are holding broadly steady in early September, with only marginal week‑on‑week moves, even as domestic mandi prices show sharp short‑term volatility. Internationally, Vietnam’s whole kernels remain flat while some broken grades edge higher, signaling selective demand strength and a narrower discount between pieces and wholes. Indian cashew markets are split between relatively stable kernel export offers and choppy spot auctions for raw cashews. Wholesale mandi data in India show a roughly 20% rebound in average cashew rates over the last week after a steep drop in August, while export‑oriented kernel prices in New Delhi have traded sideways in recent sessions. In Vietnam, benchmark WW320 and WW240 kernel prices are unchanged since July, but demand for broken and pieces is lifting those grades slightly. Near‑term, comfortable kernel supply and normal weather in key coastal belts point to a largely range‑bound export market.

Prices

Unless otherwise stated, all prices are approximate and converted to EUR at 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR and 1 INR ≈ 0.011 EUR.

Supply & Demand

Indian wholesale mandi data show cashew auction prices rebounding strongly in early September: median rates across reporting states rose about 21.5% between 4 and 11 September 2026, to roughly ₹16,000 per quintal (≈1.58 EUR/kg), though they remain about 47% below levels seen a month earlier. This pattern reflects a sharp August correction followed by bargain buying and some local demand recovery.

At the same time, some local mandis have reported single‑session price drops above 50% as sudden inflows of raw nuts met thin buying, underscoring the fragility of domestic spot sentiment. Export‑focused kernel offers from India have not mirrored this volatility, suggesting processors are managing stocks and hedging rather than marking kernel prices to short‑term raw nut swings.

Vietnam, the largest cashew kernel shipper, exported about 65,880 tonnes of kernels in August 2026, down roughly 5% year‑on‑year, even as average export prices rose modestly to around 7,203 USD/ton (≈6.63 EUR/kg). This combination of slightly firmer prices but weaker volumes points to cautious downstream buying in key markets such as the US, EU and China.

Vietnamese processors report a “deserted” kernel market with limited new buying interest, especially for average‑quality offers. Yet SVC’s latest benchmark shows whole‑kernel offers unchanged while LP and other broken grades edge up, implying that value‑oriented buyers are shifting to cheaper fragments for snack blends and confectionery, narrowing the spread between whole and broken kernels.

Weather & Crop Conditions (India)

Cashew in India is concentrated along the western coastal belt (Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala) and parts of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. In early September, forecasts for coastal Karnataka, a key cashew zone, indicate typical late‑monsoon conditions: daytime highs around 30–34°C, warm nights and intermittent showers, but no extreme heat or flooding signals in the coming days.

Given that India is between main flowering and harvest cycles in many orchards, current weather has limited immediate impact on supply. Moist but not excessively wet conditions support vegetative growth and next season’s potential, while logistics from warehouses and mandis are operating normally. Overall, near‑term supply risk from weather in Indian cashew regions appears low.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Raw vs kernel disconnect: Indian raw cashew and local processed prices in mandis have been highly volatile, but kernel export quotes in New Delhi and rival origins remain stable, hinting at comfortable kernel stocks and reluctance to chase short‑lived spot spikes.
• Vietnam price structure: WW320 and WW240 are flat, but DW320 and LP are up 0.10 USD/kg, compressing the discount on broken grades and signaling stronger demand in price‑sensitive channels.
• Soft global demand: Recent Vietnamese export data (volume down ~5% YoY) and trader commentary about a “quiet” market confirm that Q4 demand is not yet in full swing, despite the typical pre‑holiday buying window.
• India’s export competitiveness: With Vietnamese benchmarks for WW320 around 7.00 USD/kg FOB and Indian WW‑equivalent offers near that range, India must compete on quality, reliability and value‑added formats rather than price alone in the near term.

3–10 Day Outlook & Trading View

With stable export offers and no immediate weather threats in Indian cashew belts, the short‑term market is likely to remain range‑bound. Domestic mandi prices may stay choppy as arrivals fluctuate, but international kernel benchmarks show few catalysts for a sustained rally in the next week.

Trading Recommendations (7–14 days)

• Buyers (roasters, importers): Use current stability to secure nearby W320/W240 coverage on a hand‑to‑mouth basis rather than locking large forward volumes; consider partial substitution into LP/SWP while broken‑grade discounts are still meaningful.
• Indian processors: Avoid aggressive kernel discounting to clear stocks; instead, manage raw‑nut procurement carefully as mandi prices swing, using low‑price days to top up inventories.
• Traders: Focus on spreads between whole and broken kernels; the recent firming in broken grades in Vietnam suggests this discount could narrow further if snack demand improves into late September.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

*Indicative working ranges based on latest reported levels and FX conversions; actual traded prices may differ by origin, quality, lot size and contract terms.