Cashew Market Holds Firm as Tanzania Prepares for Big New Crop
Global cashew prices stay firm as Vietnam margins tighten, China and US demand support kernels, and Tanzania targets a 750,000‑tonne crop before October auctions.
Prices
Vietnam’s kernel market remains comparatively weak in demand but firm in offers. W320 sellers are generally reluctant to move below about $3.15/lb, with some business around $3.10/lb and premium BRC-certified shippers near $3.20–$3.30/lb. W240 is quoted around $3.45–$3.55/lb, with higher prices for larger grades increasingly rationing demand, especially from Türkiye.
Raw nut values continue to cap downside. Indicative CNF Ho Chi Minh City offers are around $1,840/MT for Indonesia 52 lbs / 200 count, $1,540/MT for Ivory Coast 45 lbs / 185 count and $1,400/MT for Ghana 42 lbs / 200 count. RCN traders remain reluctant to lower offers, expecting kernel prices to improve as peak seasonal shipments approach later in Q4.
Current EUR quotations confirm a broadly steady undertone rather than a break lower. In New Delhi, conventional cashew kernels W240 are indicated at 7.6 EUR/MT FOB and organic W240 at 8 EUR/MT FOB, while organic W320 stands at 8.75 EUR/MT FOB and W450 at 6.4 EUR/MT FOB. In Hanoi, WW240 is offered at 7.97 EUR/MT FOB and WW320 at 7.07 EUR/MT FOB, with broken grades such as LP at 5.47 EUR/MT FOB and SP at 4.52 EUR/MT FOB. In Dordrecht, WW320 is indicated around 5.2 EUR/MT FCA, with FS at 3.9 EUR/MT FCA and LWP at 3.75 EUR/MT FCA, all broadly stable over recent updates.
| Origin | Grade | Delivery term | Latest price (EUR) | Recent trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India (New Delhi) | Cashew kernels, brownish white W240 | FOB | 7.6 | Stable vs. early September |
| India (New Delhi) | Cashew kernels, W320, organic | FOB | 8.75 | Unchanged on month |
| Vietnam (Hanoi) | Cashew kernels, WW320 | FOB | 7.07 | Sideways, supported |
| Netherlands (Dordrecht) | Cashew kernels, WW320 | FCA | 5.2 | Slightly firmer vs. late August |
Supply & Demand
Vietnam’s RCN import data underline the structural tightness in raw material costs. January–August 2026 imports reached about 2.119 million tonnes, down 2.3% year-on-year, but import value rose 5.7% as the average import price climbed 8.2% to $1,658/MT. Cambodia supplied roughly 1.017 million tonnes and now accounts for nearly half of Vietnam’s RCN inflows, while volumes from Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Ghana and Indonesia declined.
On the kernel side, Vietnam exported around 477,894 tonnes in January–August, down only 0.9% year-on-year, yet export value increased 2.9% as the average export price rose to $7,061/MT. China and the US remain the primary growth engines, with Chinese imports up about 6% year-on-year and US volumes up roughly 8%. Additional growth has come from Israel, Canada, Spain and Australia, partly offsetting sharp declines into the UAE, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, Russia and the UK.
Despite this relatively healthy export picture, buying behaviour is cautious. Importers are largely covering short term and avoiding long forward commitments, reflecting macro uncertainty and still-fragile end consumer demand. This keeps spot kernel trading thin and concentrated in key grades such as W320 and W240, with buyers highly price-sensitive at current levels.
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Weather & Origins Focus
Tanzania is emerging as the key near-term swing factor. The 2026/27 marketing season is scheduled to open on October 19, with the Cashewnut Board of Tanzania targeting a 750,000‑tonne crop. Weather conditions in major southern producing regions, including Lindi, Mtwara, Masasi, Newala, Tandahimba and Tunduru, are broadly supportive, and the next one to two weeks will be critical for fruit retention and nut development.
In Mozambique, northern areas such as Nampula and Cabo Delgado have enjoyed favourable conditions in early September, with daytime temperatures near 29–31°C, cooler nights and modest humidity aiding flowering and early fruit set. Low rainfall is currently limiting fungal pressure, supporting expectations for a decent crop. Together, Tanzania and Mozambique are likely to deliver ample East African RCN supply provided weather remains benign through October.
India, by contrast, is dealing more with cost and currency than with weather at this stage. High imported RCN prices and rupee weakness are keeping domestic kernel prices supported even as the first phase of festival buying has eased. This combination is preventing a deeper correction, particularly in export-oriented whole grades.
Fundamentals & Policy
The market is currently defined by a mismatch between raw nut economics and kernel demand. Vietnamese processors face difficult parity as RCN prices remain high relative to kernel offers, compressing margins and discouraging aggressive sales. Traders holding RCN are similarly reluctant to reduce prices, betting on firmer kernel quotes as the peak shipping window progresses.
Structural policy shifts in key origins are also reshaping trade flows. Ghanaian processors are lobbying for taxes and levies on raw cashew exports to secure domestic processing volumes, while Nigeria has opted for a more gradual industry development roadmap rather than an outright export ban. Ivory Coast is investing in downstream value addition, signing a partnership to develop cardanol production from cashew nut shell liquid, which could enhance local margins and shift some value away from pure kernel exports.
Operational risks also remain in focus. Vietnamese authorities have warned exporters about renewed fraud risks involving shipments to Italy, echoing earlier container-related scams. Meanwhile, Cambodian buyers are signalling potential demand for about 144,000 tonnes of RCN, underlining regional competition for raw material as processors in multiple origins seek to secure throughput for 2026/27.
Outlook & Trading Strategy
The near-term outlook is for a broadly sideways but underpinned market. Weak kernel demand, especially for mid-range grades, is being offset by high RCN replacement costs and currency headwinds in key origins. The October 19 start of Tanzania’s auctions will be the next major catalyst; early auction prices and volumes will signal whether raw nut values can adjust closer to processing economics or whether margin pressure persists into Q4.
For the next one to two months, the balance of probabilities points to rangebound kernel prices with modest upside risk if China and US buying accelerates into year-end. Any weather disruptions in Tanzania or Mozambique during the critical fruiting window would quickly translate into firmer RCN offers. Conversely, a smooth East African harvest combined with continued tepid demand could eventually cap further price appreciation in kernels towards late Q4.
Trading recommendations
- Kernel buyers (roasters, retailers): Consider layering in coverage on W320 and W240 for Q4–Q1 while prices remain stable but supported, avoiding over-commitment ahead of Tanzania’s auction outcome. Focus on origin diversification between Vietnam, India and Africa to mitigate basis risk.
- Processors: Be cautious about locking in high-priced RCN without corresponding forward kernel sales. Prioritise efficiency, quality premiums (e.g. BRC-certified lots) and value-added channels where differential pricing better covers current replacement costs.
- RCN traders: Maintain disciplined sales strategies into the Tanzania auction start, but be prepared for quicker marketing if early prices indicate that processors will not absorb further cost escalation.
3‑day directional outlook
- Vietnam FOB (WW320/WW240): Sideways to slightly firm; limited selling pressure and stable export interest from China and the US.
- India FOB (W240/W320): Firm bias, with rupee weakness and high imported RCN costs cushioning any dip in post‑festival demand.
- Europe FCA (WW320, broken grades): Mostly steady; modest end‑user restocking expected, but no strong upside trigger ahead of Tanzanian auction clarity.