Cashew Market Steadies as Tanzanian Auctions Loom and Diwali Demand Nears
Cashew market tightens as buyers secure Vietnam kernels into 2027, Tanzania’s harvest looms and India awaits Diwali-led demand. Focus on prices and supply risks.
Prices
Vietnamese FOB kernel offers remain firm, with W320 indicated around USD 3.10–3.35 per lb, W240 at USD 3.50–3.60, W210 at USD 4.10–4.40 and W180 at USD 4.50–4.60. Reported trades for medium BRC W320 are clustered near USD 3.10–3.12 per lb, while premium packers are achieving around USD 3.25 per lb, highlighting a widening quality spread.
Recent Euro-denominated indications confirm this firm tone: in Hanoi, Cashew kernels WW320 (FOB) are quoted at EUR 7.17, WW240 at EUR 8.07 and LWP at EUR 5.58. In New Delhi, non-organic W320 stands at EUR 7.15 and W240 at EUR 7.65 FOB, while in Dordrecht, WW320 (FCA) is at EUR 5.25. These levels show a modest upward drift over recent weeks, consistent with stronger kernel enquiries and still-cautious raw nut procurement.
| Origin / Location | Grade | Delivery | Latest Price (EUR) | Previous Price (EUR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam, Hanoi | WW320 | FOB | 7.17 | 7.12 |
| Vietnam, Hanoi | WW240 | FOB | 8.07 | 8.02 |
| India, New Delhi | W320 | FOB | 7.15 | 7.15 |
| India, New Delhi | W240 | FOB | 7.65 | 7.65 |
| Netherlands, Dordrecht | WW320 | FCA | 5.25 | 5.20 |
Supply & Demand
Vietnam is at the centre of current kernel trade flows, with buyers from North America, Europe and East Asia actively seeking coverage for Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year and Lunar New Year. Demand is concentrated in whole grades (WW320 and WW240), but resistance to higher offers is limiting any sharp price escalation. Processors remain cautious buyers of raw cashew nuts (RCN), given the tight margin between CNF raw nut costs and achievable kernel sales.
In the RCN market, indicative CNF Ho Chi Minh City offers for Côte d’Ivoire-origin nuts stand near USD 1,375–1,505 per tonne, with Mozambique-origin material around USD 1,590 per tonne for 46 lb outturn and 195 nut count. Trading volumes, however, are muted as the trade eyes the imminent Tanzanian crop. India’s internal demand is steady to subdued, with wholesalers and stockists in major centres maintaining enquiries but avoiding aggressive pre-Diwali accumulation, especially after substantial kernel price gains since May.
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Fundamentals & Policy
Tanzania is poised to be the key swing factor for raw nut availability in the coming months. The first auctions in Masasi are scheduled for October 12, and national production is expected to exceed 500,000 tonnes this season, making the country a pivotal supplier to Asian processors. Southern Tanzania has generally enjoyed favourable dry conditions for harvesting and drying, and the short-term outlook for Masasi points to hot, mostly sunny weather, supportive of ongoing field and post-harvest work.
Mozambique is preparing for its 2026/27 cashew marketing season amid important policy shifts. The farmgate reference price, last set at 45 meticals per kg, is under review, while a higher 22% export surtax on raw nuts aims to channel more material to local processors. At the same time, factories are gaining flexibility to export surplus raw nuts. These changes will determine how much RCN remains for domestic crushing versus exports to Vietnam and India, with Nampula and Zambézia regions facing hotter and generally wetter conditions in October–November and very warm short-term weather.
India’s fundamentals are shaped by a relatively tight domestic balance after strong price increases between early May and late September across key grades and centres. W180 in Mangalore rose about 16.67%, W210 17.65% and W320 7.32%, while W240 and W320 in Kollam gained 13.36% and 11.40% respectively. As of October 5, W320 quotations were highest in Ahmedabad and firm across major hubs, though differences in local taxes and logistics make these quotes not directly comparable on a delivered basis. Diwali-related buying is expected to support demand, but elevated price levels may keep restocking gradual rather than explosive.
Outlook & Trading Recommendations
In the near term, the cashew market is likely to remain firm but rangebound. International kernel coverage for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 is increasing, limiting downside, while persistent buyer resistance and the approaching East African harvest cap the upside. Key short-term drivers include Tanzanian auction results, actual throughput of Vietnamese kernel shipments, Mozambique’s reference price decisions and the timing and intensity of Indian festive demand.
Trading outlook
- Kernel buyers: Consider securing at least partial coverage for whole grades (WW320/WW240) through Q1 2027 at current firm but stable levels, especially with reliable Vietnamese and Indian packers, while keeping some flexibility for potential post-harvest softening if Tanzanian volumes are strong.
- Processors: Maintain disciplined RCN purchasing, focusing on quality and competitive outturns from Côte d’Ivoire and Mozambique until Tanzanian auction price signals are clear; avoid overextending on raw nuts while kernel buyers still resist higher offers.
- Indian buyers: Time festive and post-Diwali procurement carefully; current domestic prices already incorporate significant increases since May, so staggered buying may reduce exposure to any correction if global raw supply improves.
3-day directional outlook (kernels)
- Vietnam FOB (Hanoi): WW320, WW240 – bias sideways to slightly firm as export enquiries continue but no broad-based price spike is evident.
- India FOB (New Delhi): W320, W240 – bias sideways, with Diwali buying expectations supporting current levels but limited room for near-term gains.
- Europe FCA (Dordrecht): WW320, broken grades – bias sideways, tracking origin prices and freight rather than local fundamentals over the next few days.