Cashew Market Turns Upward as Vietnam Prices Finally Move

Vietnamese cashew kernel prices are finally edging higher after months of flat trading, with whole-kernel grades WW320 and WW240 posting the first meaningful moves since July. At the same time, Indian demand remains robust even though raw cashew imports in January–July ran about 8% below last year, tightening the balance and lending support to global prices. The market is shifting from a prolonged sideways phase into a gently firmer trend. Buyers face a more constructive tone from Vietnamese processors as raw nut costs rise and nearby selling interest lightens, while Indian kernel demand into the festive season stays strong. Whole grades have begun to move first, but broken and piece grades are no longer as cheap relative to wholes as earlier in the year. The upside remains controlled for now, yet the risk balance is clearly tilting away from further downside.

Prices

According to the latest indications, Vietnam FOB values for premium whole kernels stand around US$7.10/kg for WW320 and US$8.00/kg for WW240, each up US$0.10 and marking the first price increase for whole kernels since July. This is mirrored in our EUR benchmarks: Vietnam WW320 FOB Hanoi is currently quoted at 7.17 EUR/kg, with WW240 at 8.07 EUR/kg, both slightly above late-September levels.

Other Vietnamese grades have also firmed modestly, though less sharply than whole kernels. For example, LWP is indicated at 5.58 EUR/kg FOB Hanoi, with WS at 6.07 EUR/kg and SP at 4.62 EUR/kg. In India, FOB New Delhi prices remain comparatively stable but firm, with conventional W320 around 7.15 EUR/kg and W240 around 7.65 EUR/kg, underlining the support from strong domestic and regional demand.

Supply & Demand

The key driver of the current uptrend is the combination of firmer raw cashew nut (RCN) costs in Vietnam and resilient kernel demand in India and Europe. Recent market updates highlight that Vietnamese FOB prices for WW320 and WW240 have started to move higher on stronger raw nut prices and steady European interest.

On the demand side, India continues to absorb significant kernel volumes, with domestic buying described as strong across most grades. At the same time, Indian raw cashew imports in January–July were roughly 8% below the previous year, reflecting shipment delays from West Africa and leaving less cushion in the raw material supply chain. This tighter import flow, paired with solid festival-season demand, is pushing processors to pay more for RCN and, increasingly, to pass part of that cost on into kernel prices.

Fundamentals

For most of Q3, global cashew fundamentals were characterised by high raw nut prices and flat whole-kernel quotations, while broken grades moved up earlier in the season. Recent Vietnamese data confirm that whole grades such as WW320 and WW240 had remained unchanged through much of the lean season before the current US$0.10/kg adjustment.

The delayed reaction in wholes suggests that processors were initially absorbing narrower crush margins, hoping for stronger kernel demand before testing higher offers. With Indian raw imports lagging and raw nut prices staying firm on limited high-outturn origins, that margin pressure has become more visible. Spot and nearby demand for larger kernels remains relatively better than for standard and smaller grades, keeping a moderate premium for WW240 over WW320 intact.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Weather is not a dominant near-term driver as main-crop harvesting windows in West Africa and Asia lie ahead, but the market is already positioning for the next RCN campaign against the backdrop of tight carryover stocks and firm freight costs. In this context, the latest uptick in Vietnamese whole-kernel prices looks less like a one-off adjustment and more like the start of a gently firmer price corridor into the year-end demand peak.

• For roasters and importers: Consider advancing cover on Vietnam WW320/WW240 for Q4–early Q1 needs while the current rise is still limited; focus on origin and grade diversification rather than waiting for a pullback that fundamentals do not clearly justify.
• For processors: Use the improved whole-kernel pricing window to rebuild margins but avoid aggressive offer hikes that might choke off still price-sensitive demand in the US and EU snack segments.
• For traders: The WW240/WW320 spread is likely to remain supported; relative-value strategies favour holding a long bias in larger whole grades versus lower-grade pieces so long as Indian demand signals stay firm.

3-day Regional Directional View

• Vietnam FOB (WW240/WW320): Slight upward bias as sellers test marginally higher offers, with limited resistance from buyers for nearby shipments.
• India FOB (main grades): Mostly steady to firm, underpinned by strong domestic offtake and cautious raw nut coverage.
• EU (Netherlands FCA, bulk kernels): Mildly firmer tone following the move in origin prices, but buyers still negotiating hard on forward positions.