Cashew Market Tightrope: Firm RCN, Squeezed Margins and Festival Demand

The global cashew market is finely balanced as firm raw cashew nut (RCN) prices collide with only moderate kernel demand. Indian festival buying and tight high‑outturn RCN supply are supporting raw material values, while Vietnam’s processors face margin pressure and East Africa prepares to enter the market with new-season crops. Raw nut imports into Vietnam have slowed and become more expensive, India’s domestic kernel prices have risen sharply, and Côte d’Ivoire is consolidating its role as both a major RCN origin and a growing processed-kernel supplier. Weather in Tanzania and Mozambique remains favourable ahead of harvest, positioning East Africa as the key swing factor for RCN prices into Q4. Kernel price benchmarks in Vietnam and India are broadly steady to slightly firmer, but still lag the increase in raw costs.

Prices

RCN prices remain firm, especially for higher-outturn lots destined for India. Recent CNF Ho Chi Minh offers from West Africa cluster around USD 1,400–1,610/tonne depending on outturn, with Côte d’Ivoire 46–47 lb material commanding a clear premium over lower-grade parcels. This premium underscores strong competition for quality nuts ahead of India’s festival season.

Vietnam’s August 2026 RCN imports fell 30.85% year on year to 186,471 tonnes, yet the average import price rose 9.63% to about USD 1,596/tonne. For January–August, volumes slipped 2.13% while average prices increased 8.14% to around USD 1,658/tonne, confirming a structural firming in raw material costs rather than a short-lived spike.

On the kernel side, benchmark W320 offers from Vietnam remain around USD 3.05–3.35/lb FOB, with some Western bids still nearer USD 3.00–3.10/lb for nearby shipments. 【⁠cite⁠⁢turn0search2⁠⁠】 Current transactional indications align closely with listed offers: WW320 at roughly USD 7.00/kg and WW240 at USD 7.80–7.90/kg FOB Ho Chi Minh, with whole grades broadly flat over recent weeks while broken grades (LP, DW320, SK) have edged about USD 0.10/kg higher. 【⁠cite⁠⁢turn0search0⁠⁢turn0search11⁠⁠】

Supply & Demand

Vietnam’s import structure is shifting rather than collapsing. January–July RCN arrivals edged up 1.91% year on year to 1.933 million tonnes, even as August volumes dropped sharply. Cambodia strengthened its position as Vietnam’s dominant RCN origin with nearly 1.0 million tonnes shipped (+10.57% year on year), while Nigeria, Ghana and Indonesia saw exports to Vietnam fall 30–40%, and adjusted Côte d’Ivoire flows to Vietnam were significantly lower once old-crop material is excluded.

On the export side, Vietnam shipped 65,880 tonnes of kernels in August, down 5.38% by volume but with export value marginally higher due to a 5.9% increase in average prices to roughly USD 7,203/tonne. January–August kernel exports slipped 0.89% to 477,894 tonnes, but value rose 2.85% and average export prices climbed to about USD 7,061/tonne. Full‑year kernel exports are expected to finish at least 3% lower, highlighting how high raw-material costs and limited new demand are constraining trade expansion.

India is currently the most dynamic demand centre. Domestic festival stocking has driven strong buying for W320 and W400 in consumer channels and for broken grades in sweets, snacks and confectionery. Spot prices across major Indian hubs rose 5–11% between late July and end‑August, with W320 in Gujarat near INR 950/kg and in Mangalore around INR 900+/kg, underscoring a broad-based uptrend rather than isolated spikes.

Côte d’Ivoire continues to diversify away from a pure raw-nut role, exporting 76,262 tonnes of processed kernels in January–July 2026 at an average CIF value around USD 5,230/tonne. Vietnam, Europe, the United States and China are now key destinations, underlining West Africa’s growing importance in the kernel trade and setting the stage for greater intra-origin competition with Asia over time.

Fundamentals & Margins

The fundamental tension in the market lies in the spread between firm RCN prices and only modest kernel price gains. Vietnamese processors are paying more per tonne for raw nuts while RCN import volumes are flat to lower, compressing processing margins. Many smaller shelling units in Vietnam have already suspended operations because kernel prices near USD 3.00–3.10/lb do not fully cover elevated raw-nut and processing costs.

Indicative Vietnamese FOB kernel offers currently span roughly USD 4.35–4.55/lb for W180, USD 3.45–3.60/lb for W240 and USD 3.05–3.35/lb for W320, with broken and pieces such as LP at USD 1.95–2.20/lb and SP at USD 1.35–1.60/lb. These levels are broadly in line with other recent trade reports, which show WW320 holding at around USD 7.00/kg FOB and WW240 near USD 7.90/kg. 【⁠cite⁠⁢turn0search2⁠⁢turn0search4⁠⁢turn0search11⁠⁠】

By contrast, India’s FOB kernel prices for W240 and W320 are higher than Vietnam’s and African origins: approximately USD 4.00/lb and USD 3.80/lb respectively, versus about USD 3.5–3.6/lb (W240) and USD 3.2–3.3/lb (W320) in Vietnam and around USD 3.45/lb for W320 from Africa. This premium reflects strong domestic demand, higher cost structures and the value placed on Indian origin in certain segments.

African kernel values, while somewhat indicative, confirm this hierarchy: late‑August FOB offers in West Africa ranged around USD 3.65–3.80/lb for W240 and USD 3.40–3.50/lb for W320, with broken and industrial grades substantially discounted. These levels keep Africa competitive with Vietnam on price while offering origin diversification, especially for buyers seeking to balance exposure to Asian processors.

Currency moves add another layer. A somewhat firmer Indian rupee versus the US dollar in early September has modestly supported local INR kernel prices, while currencies in major African suppliers such as Tanzania and Nigeria continue to influence grower returns and export parity levels. For now, FX has been a secondary driver compared with physical supply and demand, but sudden shifts could quickly alter export competitiveness.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather conditions in early September across Tanzania and Mozambique have been generally favourable for cashew trees, with temperatures around 11–15°C at night and up to 30°C by day, and light rainfall (below 10 mm) leaving mostly dry conditions. These parameters are supportive of nut development and harvest preparation, and both countries are approaching their 2026/27 seasons in a positive agronomic context.

The Tanzanian harvest is roughly five to six weeks away, and Mozambique’s about eight weeks, placing fresh East African supply firmly on the horizon for Q4. Tanzania’s long‑term strategy to boost production towards 1 million tonnes by 2030 and attract new processing investments, alongside similar initiatives in Mozambique, could gradually shift more value addition into Africa. In the near term, however, the key question is whether the upcoming East African crop will be large and high quality enough to ease current RCN tightness.

Trading Outlook

• Near term (next 4–6 weeks): Expect continued firmness in high‑outturn RCN, supported by Indian festival demand and limited high-quality African offers. Kernel prices are likely to remain range‑bound, with W320 around USD 3.00–3.35/lb FOB Vietnam and India maintaining a premium.
• Into East African harvest (6–10 weeks): If Tanzania and Mozambique crops meet current expectations, additional RCN supply should gradually cap further upside in raw-nut prices and may allow some easing in procurement costs late in the year. Any weather disruptions or logistical bottlenecks would conversely prolong tightness.
• Margins & origin selection: Buyers should monitor Vietnam’s processing margins; further shutdowns of small facilities could reduce spot kernel availability and increase reliance on larger packers and African processors. Indian kernels will likely remain a premium niche, especially for branded retail and gifting products.

Strategic Pointers for Market Participants

• Kernel buyers (roasters, retailers, ingredient users): Consider forward coverage for W320 and key broken grades through the Indian festival window, prioritising Vietnam and African origins where discounts to India remain material. For industrial users, the narrowing discount between whole and broken suggests reassessing grade selection where visual appearance is less critical.
• Importers and traders: Maintain diversified RCN sourcing between Cambodia and West Africa while closely tracking East African crop news. Given firm RCN and fragile processing margins, avoid overcommitting to low‑priced kernel sales without secured raw cover.
• Processors in origin countries: Focus on high-outturn, traceable lots and maximise by-product realisation (e.g., shells, CNSL) to offset thin kernel margins. Investment in efficiency and automation will be crucial as competition from new African processing capacity intensifies.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Vietnam (FOB Ho Chi Minh / Hanoi): WW320 and WW240 expected to trade broadly sideways in EUR terms over the next three days, with a slight firm bias for broken grades LP/WS/LP in response to steady industrial demand.
• India (FOB New Delhi): W240 and W320 likely to stay firm to slightly higher in EUR as domestic festival demand persists and the rupee remains relatively supported.
• Europe (FCA Netherlands): WW320 and LWP indications stable, reflecting sufficient nearby stocks; any short‑term move is more likely driven by FX and freight adjustments than by origin price shifts.