Cashew market under pressure but downside looks limited

Cashew prices in New Delhi remain under pressure, but selling is disciplined and the downside appears limited in the near term. In the Delhi wholesale market, cashew is quoted around USD 11.83/kg (≈ EUR 10.95/kg), with spot demand from retailers, sweets manufacturers and dry-fruit traders described as sluggish. However, holders of higher-quality kernels are resisting deeper discounts, which is helping to stabilize values despite weak offtake. A gradual recovery in festival and gifting demand, together with steady export interest, could keep prices broadly range-bound over the coming weeks.

Prices & Spreads

Wholesale kernel prices in New Delhi indicate a soft but not collapsing market. Indicative FCA/FOB offers in early June show only marginal week-on-week changes, signaling consolidation rather than a new down-leg.

The narrow increases of about EUR 0.03/kg across key Indian grades underline a market that is under pressure from demand, but still supported by producer and trader reluctance to sell high-quality kernels at significantly lower levels.

Supply & Demand Drivers

On the demand side, domestic consumption in India from retailers and confectionery users is presently slow, reflecting cautious household spending outside of peak festive periods. Dry-fruit traders are also buying hand-to-mouth, avoiding large forward coverage at current levels.

On the supply side, the flow of good-quality kernels to the market is measured. Processors are not aggressively liquidating stocks, especially for exportable grades, which limits the availability of discounted lots. This controlled selling behavior is a key factor preventing a sharper downturn in prices.

Market Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the market is in a balancing phase: weak spot demand is offset by firm holding power among suppliers. Export parity from India remains reasonably competitive versus other origins, which continues to underpin demand from key importing regions, especially for standard grades such as W320 and W240.

In major producing regions like India and Vietnam, current weather patterns are seasonally warm, but there are no widespread reports of acute weather stress severe enough to materially alter short-term kernel availability. As a result, near-term fundamentals are driven more by demand sentiment and inventory management than by production shocks.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Guidance

Given the combination of slow demand and disciplined selling, cashew prices are likely to remain broadly steady in the near term, with only limited downside unless demand deteriorates further. A gradual improvement in retail and sweets-maker offtake could support a mild recovery from current levels.

• Buyers (retailers, sweets makers): Consider staggered purchases over the next 2–4 weeks to benefit from current soft prices, but avoid waiting for significantly lower levels as high-quality material is unlikely to be discounted aggressively.
• Importers & traders: Focus on standard grades (W320/W240) where liquidity is better and spreads are relatively stable. Building moderate coverage on price dips appears reasonable given limited downside.
• Processors & producers: Maintaining price discipline on higher grades seems justified. Selective sales into firm inquiries, rather than volume-driven discounts, should help preserve market levels.

3-Day Price Indication (Directional)

• India – New Delhi (FCA/FOB kernels): Sideways to slightly firm; expected move within ±1–2% as demand gradually improves.
• Vietnam – Hanoi (FOB kernels): Mostly steady; marginal firming possible in line with Indian offers for W320/W240.
• EU – Netherlands (FCA Dordrecht): Stable; import prices expected to track origin levels with minor FX-driven noise only.