Cashew Kernels Hold Firm as Vietnam Export Strength Meets Steady Indian Demand

Indian and Vietnamese cashew kernel prices are broadly stable, with only marginal movements in European distribution hubs, as strong demand for premium grades offsets soft spot buying and high freight costs. Across India, Vietnam and the Netherlands, benchmark WW320 and WW240 grades are trading in a tight sideways band, supported by resilient snacking demand in Asia and the EU. Recent Vietnamese customs data confirm robust export flows, especially to China and the US, while Indian kernels are increasingly absorbed by domestic consumption rather than exports. Short‑term weather patterns in key processing areas are seasonally wet but not yet disruptive. Logistics remain the main upside risk: ocean freight from Asia is still elevated, limiting aggressive price discounting and encouraging hand‑to‑mouth purchasing for lower grades.

Prices

Using an indicative FX rate of 1 EUR = 1.10 USD, current kernel prices convert as follows:

These prices are consistent with broader export benchmarks: recent Vietnamese customs data put average export values around EUR 6.2–6.5/kg for kernels, markedly higher than last year and driven by strong demand from China and the US. Indian reference dashboards show Indian W320 export quotes in early 2026 broadly sideways to slightly lower year-on-year, aligning with the current flat profile in New Delhi. European wholesale prices in the Netherlands remain discounted versus origins, reflecting competition among importers and healthy pipeline stocks.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam remains the world’s leading cashew kernel exporter and has reported strong year‑on‑year export growth in early 2026, supported by recovering demand in China and the US. Customs data show a notable jump in monthly shipments and higher average export prices, confirming tightness particularly in larger whole grades such as WW240 and WW320.

At the same time, Vietnam’s cashew sector has turned more cautious on full‑year targets as geopolitical tensions and weaker demand from the Middle East have trimmed export expectations compared with earlier ambitions. For India, official market intelligence points to robust domestic absorption; exports form a relatively small share of output, and higher raw nut and processing costs have eroded export competitiveness despite firm international prices. In the EU, and particularly in the Netherlands as a key entry hub, demand is steady but price‑sensitive; importers are watching logistics costs and new regulatory obligations on agro‑food imports, though nuts like cashews are less directly impacted than planting material.

Fundamentals & Weather

Market commentary from Vietnamese exporters highlights slow but selective kernel buying, with limited new offers and high ocean freight rates expected to persist into Q3–Q4 2026. This encourages buyers to focus on core grades (WW320/WW240) and delay large forward commitments, keeping price direction broadly sideways in the very near term. Supply of large whole kernels remains structurally tighter than smaller sizes and pieces, a pattern confirmed by recent price index analysis.

Weather in the main processing and trading centres is seasonally typical and not yet a direct threat to supply. New Delhi faces monsoon conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next three days, but these mainly affect logistics rather than immediate kernel output. Hanoi will see periods of rain and very warm temperatures, including thunderstorms in spots; this can slow port operations but is standard for July. Dordrecht is forecast to be warm with occasional showers, supportive of normal warehouse and distribution activity. Overall, weather is a watchpoint rather than a current price driver.

3-day Outlook & Trading Views

Short-term directional view (24–26 July 2026): With export prices firm, freight elevated and no acute weather shock, cashew kernel prices in all three key regions are expected to trade sideways in EUR terms over the next three days.

• India (IN, New Delhi): Monsoon rains may cause minor logistical delays, but strong domestic demand and steady export interest should keep FOB and FCA kernel prices broadly unchanged in EUR. Bias: flat to slightly firm for premium whole grades.
• Vietnam (VN, Hanoi): Export flows remain active with tight availability of WW240/WW320 and ongoing strength in Asian and US demand. With little evidence of aggressive discounting, FOB prices are likely to hold current levels, with an upside bias if freight tightens further.
• Netherlands (NL, Dordrecht): Comfortable stocks and competitive import supply argue for stable FCA prices. Any short‑term EUR strengthening versus USD could marginally pressure import margins rather than kernel benchmarks themselves.

Trading recommendations

• Roasters and packers in the EU/India: Use current stability to secure near‑term WW320 and W240 coverage in EUR without over‑extending; consider layering purchases over the next 2–4 weeks to hedge against freight‑driven spikes.
• Origin exporters (IN, VN): Maintain offer discipline on large whole grades; focus on value‑added and organic lines where buyers are less price‑sensitive, while remaining flexible on broken and small-piece grades to keep factories running.
• Traders: Sideways bias and firm freight favour range‑trading strategies: buy dips triggered by FX or temporary demand lulls, and lock in margins quickly on rallies driven by logistics headlines.

Across IN, VN and NL, the baseline is for stable cashew kernel pricing in EUR through the coming three days, with freight and FX posing the main upside risks rather than crop or weather shocks.