Cashew Kernels Hold Firm as EU Demand Lags and Vietnam Exports Ease

Indian and Vietnamese cashew kernel prices are broadly stable to slightly firmer, with small gains in European warehouse values despite sluggish post-summer demand in the EU and US. Tight farmer selling and cautious buyer interest are keeping liquidity low but preventing any sharp correction. Cashew exporters in Vietnam report a quiet kernel export market in week 34, with volumes in the first half of August down year-on-year and buyers in the US and Europe slow to return after holidays. At the same time, Vietnam’s year-to-date export value remains close to EUR 2.7–2.8 billion equivalent, underpinned by resilient demand in China and the EU. In India, domestic mandi prices stay elevated, while monsoon showers in key coastal cashew regions support trees ahead of next season without threatening current stocks. Overall, the market trades sideways with a mild upward bias in near-term European prices.

Prices

Indicative kernel values converted to EUR (approx. 1 USD = 0.92 EUR):

Indian kernel quotes in New Delhi are unchanged over the past week in both whole and broken grades, reflecting a balanced domestic market. In Dordrecht, EU warehouse prices for WW320 and broken grades have edged up by around 1% versus last week, in line with reports of low spot liquidity but firm replacement costs from origins. Vietnamese FOB offers remain flat, with exporters prioritising volume over margin amid weaker August shipments.

Supply & Demand

Vietnamese exporters describe the global cashew market in week 34 as low-liquidity, with US and EU buyers slow to return from summer, and Vietnam’s kernel exports in the first half of August down about 8% year-on-year. Yet cumulative January–July Vietnamese exports have reached about 412,000 tonnes, with export value near EUR 2.7–2.8 billion, up roughly 3% in value on slightly lower volume, confirming solid underlying demand and better pricing.

China has overtaken the US as Vietnam’s top cashew buyer this year, while the EU remains a key premium market, with the Netherlands and Germany acting as distribution hubs into Europe. Competitive pressure in the EU is intensifying, but Vietnam’s share of Germany’s imports has expanded, underlining its strong position on quality and logistics. Demand recovery in the US and parts of Europe after the holidays will be critical for any sustained price upside into Q4.

In India, domestic mandi prices for raw cashew nuts remain elevated, with recent all-India averages around INR 36,400 per quintal, reinforcing firm kernel replacement costs. Combined with higher logistics and regulatory costs, including additional US tariffs on Vietnamese-origin goods that may redirect some trade flows, this backdrop supports current kernel price levels despite soft short-term buying interest.

Weather & Crop Outlook (IN, VN)

India’s main cashew belts in Kerala and coastal Karnataka are under a typical late-monsoon pattern. Local forecasts for Kozhikode in northern Kerala point to generally cloudy conditions with a few spells of rain or thundershowers and highs around 29°C over the coming days, without any severe warnings. These conditions are seasonally normal and supportive for tree moisture ahead of next season’s flowering, with no immediate threat to current stock availability.

Vietnam’s cashew harvest is largely past, with current supply flows driven more by processing pace and raw nut imports than by weather. No major weather-related disruptions to logistics or port operations have been reported over the last few days. In the Netherlands, weather is not a meaningful driver for cashew availability; European stock positions depend primarily on import timing from Asia.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Export performance: Vietnam’s January–July exports are up in value but slightly down in volume, pointing to firmer average prices even as August shipments soften.
• Regional demand mix: China’s growing share in Vietnam’s exports and stable EU demand (via the EVFTA) offer a buffer against slow US buying, but near-term orders remain cautious.
• Costs & policy: Higher raw nut prices in India and ongoing logistics and tariff issues (e.g., additional US duties on some Vietnamese goods) keep downside in kernel prices limited, especially for higher grades.
• Inventory & liquidity: Reports from Vietnam highlight low liquidity, with many buyers still working through existing stocks and postponing large Q4 coverage decisions to September.

3-day Outlook & Trading Recommendations

Regional 3-day price direction (in EUR terms):

• India (New Delhi, FOB kernels): Sideways to mildly firm. Stable offers and strong raw nut costs suggest a flat to +0.5% move for whole grades over the next three days.
• Vietnam (Hanoi, FOB kernels): Stable. Exporters are reluctant to cut prices further; expect a narrow range with no more than ±0.5% change.
• Netherlands (Dordrecht, FCA kernels): Slightly firmer. Thin spot availability and higher replacement values point to a modest +0.5–1% firming bias in nearby WW320 and broken grades.

Trading recommendations (short term):

• EU/UK roasters & packers: Use current low-liquidity conditions to secure partial Q4 coverage in WW320/WW240 from Vietnam and India, focusing on prompt–Oct positions before fuller post-holiday demand returns.
• Importers in NL: Maintain slightly above-normal stocks of key grades; replacement costs from Asia and continued strong Chinese demand limit the risk of a sharp price correction.
• Origin sellers (IN, VN): Avoid aggressive discounting for high-quality whole grades; consider small promotional offers on brokens (LWP/SWP) to stimulate demand without undermining benchmark prices.