US Cashew Imports Surge While Prices Stay Flat: Vietnam Tightens Its Grip

US cashew kernel demand remained robust in the first half of 2026, with import volumes rising nearly 13% while average prices edged up by just 0.6%. Vietnam further consolidated its near‑monopoly position, underscoring structural dependence of the US and leaving buyers exposed to any disruption in Vietnamese processing or raw nut supply. US cashew kernel imports reached 69,703 tonnes in January–June 2026, up from 61,704 tonnes a year earlier, with import value climbing to about USD 470 million from USD 413.7 million. The average import price increased marginally from USD 6,705 to USD 6,742 per tonne, showing that higher expenditure was driven almost entirely by volumes rather than unit price inflation. Against this backdrop, spot prices in Europe and FOB offers in Vietnam and India show a gently firmer bias but no sign of a sharp rally.

Prices

Average US import prices in H1 2026 moved almost sideways, up only 0.56% year-on-year to around EUR 6,200–6,250 per tonne equivalent, despite a double‑digit increase in volumes. This highlights competitive selling and ample kernel availability from Vietnam even as raw nut costs remain elevated.

Current wholesale offers confirm a mildly firmer tone rather than a breakout. In the Netherlands (FCA Dordrecht), non‑organic cashew kernels trade around EUR 5.10/kg for WW320 and EUR 3.80/kg for FS, with organic WW320 at about EUR 6.20/kg. Broken and pieces (LWP, SWP) remain significantly cheaper, between roughly EUR 3.15 and 3.65/kg for conventional lots. FOB Vietnam offers cluster near EUR 6.40–6.70/kg for WW320 and around EUR 7.20–7.50/kg for WW240, consistent with a stable to slightly stronger market rather than aggressive discounting.

Supply & Demand

US demand has proven resilient in early 2026. January–June imports rose 12.96% to 69,703 tonnes, while value increased 13.60% to approximately USD 470 million. This indicates that snack producers, retailers, food manufacturers and plant-based brands continued to absorb larger volumes, even through periods of seasonally weaker summer purchasing. The flat import price profile suggests that demand growth has not yet overwhelmed available processing capacity.

Vietnam remains overwhelmingly dominant, supplying 62,618 tonnes and accounting for 89.84% of US cashew kernel imports in H1 2026. The value of Vietnamese shipments reached roughly USD 424.7 million, at an average price of USD 6,783 per tonne. This entrenched position is reinforced by Vietnam’s strong access to raw cashew nuts, particularly from Cambodia, and its highly developed processing sector. Recent trade data indicate Vietnam’s global kernel exports for the first seven months of 2026 are approaching USD 3 billion, with the US, China and Europe as the top destinations, confirming that Vietnam is the central hub of the world cashew trade.

Competing Origins

Côte d’Ivoire is consolidating its role as the second‑largest supplier to the US. It shipped 4,605 tonnes in H1 2026, valued at USD 28.1 million, for a 6.61% market share and an average price around USD 6,104 per tonne. While still small compared with Vietnam, this reflects gradual growth in direct exports from African processors as local shelling capacity expands.

Brazil, Thailand, Ghana and Nigeria each supplied only a few hundred tonnes to the US market, with individual market shares below 1% and below 0.5% in the case of Ghana and Nigeria. Notably, Thailand achieved the highest average price among key suppliers at about USD 8,950 per tonne, suggesting a focus on premium grades or specialty segments. Overall, these origins provide some diversification, but they are far from displacing Vietnam’s near‑90% share in the short term.

Fundamentals

The combination of strong US import growth and only marginal price appreciation points to fundamentally balanced kernel availability. Vietnam has continued to import large volumes of raw cashew nuts, particularly from Cambodia, to feed its processors. By mid‑July 2026, Vietnamese raw nut imports exceeded USD 3 billion, the highest level on record for the period, underscoring how the country’s processing capacity exceeds its domestic raw supply and relies structurally on imports.

At the same time, early‑season assessments from major traders and processors suggest that the 2026 global cashew crop is tracking slightly below last year in both volume and quality across several origins. Availability of larger whole kernels (WW240, WW320) and high‑quality pieces is gradually tightening, which has contributed to firm but not spiking FOB offers from Vietnam and India. This tightening in higher grades coexists with continued adequate supply of mid‑range and broken kernels, helping to anchor the overall import price basket.

Weather and Crop Conditions

Weather across key Southeast Asian cashew regions in late July and August has generally followed a hot, seasonally wet pattern. In Vietnam, meteorological outlooks for the July 21–August 20 period point to above‑normal temperatures, especially in the south, with rainfall near or slightly above seasonal norms. This supports late‑season nut development but, combined with frequent thunderstorms, may pose local quality risks where harvest and drying are still under way.

Across the wider ASEAN belt, the June–August 2026 climate outlook indicates mostly near‑normal rainfall and below‑ to near‑average tropical cyclone activity. For now, there is no broad‑based weather shock threatening 2026/27 supply, but localized extremes during flowering or harvest windows in West Africa and Southeast Asia remain a risk that buyers should monitor closely into Q4.

Forecast & Trading Outlook

In the near term, the cashew market looks set to remain broadly stable with a slight upward bias. US consumption and import demand are solid, Vietnam’s processing pipelines are well supplied with raw nuts, and African origins are slowly increasing direct kernel exports. However, high dependence on Vietnam for nearly 90% of US imports, combined with tightening availability of larger whole kernels, argues against expectations of substantially lower prices into late 2026.

For the next quarter, baseline expectations are for WW320 benchmark prices to remain supported around current levels, with modest upside risk if demand from North America and Europe accelerates into the winter snack season or if raw nut arrivals underperform expectations. Price downside appears limited unless there is a material demand shock or a significantly better‑than‑expected main crop in West Africa and Southeast Asia.

Practical Recommendations

• US and EU buyers: Consider layering in Q4–Q1 2027 coverage for core grades (WW320, WW240) on dips, rather than waiting for a major correction that fundamentals do not currently justify.
• Snack and plant‑based manufacturers: Explore partial substitution toward broken and pieces (LWP, SWP) where product specifications allow, as current European prices for these grades are materially below whole‑kernel levels.
• Importers: Maintain diversified supplier relationships with Côte d’Ivoire and emerging African processors to mitigate concentration risk from Vietnam, even if near‑term volumes remain modest.
• Producers and processors: Use the present period of stable prices to secure forward contracts and hedge raw nut exposure, particularly where weather or quality uncertainties could tighten supply of larger whole kernels.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)