Dutch Cashew Prices Ease While Vietnam FOB Firm; Festive Demand Steady

Dutch cashew prices are drifting slightly lower while Vietnam FOB kernels edge up, reflecting comfortable European supply against firm Asian export demand. The near‑term tone for Dutch buyers is mildly bearish to sideways. Cashew kernels FCA Dordrecht have softened by around EUR 0.05 since early October, even as Vietnamese WW320 and WW240 FOB Hanoi show small upticks, supported by stronger September export prices and active Q3 shipments. Recent Indian mandi data point to easing domestic kernel benchmarks into mid‑October, signalling broadly adequate supply and tempering any short‑term global price spike risk. For the Netherlands, stable autumn weather and steady retail snack demand translate into a buyer‑friendly spot market. Exporters in Vietnam and India focus more on logistics and documentation risk than on immediate price appreciation.

Prices

Supply & Demand

Vietnam remains the key global kernel supplier, with Q3 2026 exports above 216,000 tonnes and WW320 the dominant grade. Recent analysis indicates September 2026 export values slipped slightly quarter-on-quarter, but year-to-date volumes and values still run well ahead of 2025, reinforcing ample kernel availability.

In India, wholesale cashew prices from major mandis eased into mid-October, with the national median wholesale equivalent down versus early October, signalling comfortable near-term supply and only moderate festive demand tightness. Industry commentary also highlights that India continues to rely on large raw cashew nut imports to feed processing, maintaining kernel export capacity even when domestic prices soften.

For Europe, demand stays structurally firm, but recent reports emphasise that comfortable stocks and diversified kernel supply from Vietnam, India and increasingly Africa keep spot availability healthy. A recent case of Vietnamese cashew containers stuck in Italy has renewed attention on documentation and payment terms, but so far this is a logistics and credit risk issue rather than a volume shock.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals are broadly balanced to slightly bearish for European buyers. Vietnam’s September average export price reportedly moved higher year-on-year and month-on-month, driven by strong demand from China and the US and firmer kernel values in early October. Yet, the modest scale of these increases and softening Indian wholesale benchmarks suggest more of a gentle firming in origins than a sharp rally.

For the Netherlands, short-term weather is seasonally mild and largely neutral for cashew demand: stable autumn temperatures with no extreme heat or cold spells expected in the next few days, meaning snack and retail demand patterns should follow typical October behaviour rather than weather-driven spikes. (Outlook based on standard regional forecasts for the western Netherlands around Rotterdam and Dordrecht.)

3‑Day Outlook & Trading View (NL Focus)

• Price bias (Dordrecht FCA, next 3 days): Slightly softer to sideways, with continued mild pressure on pieces (LWP, SWP, FS) and limited downside on premium WW320 as origin FOB levels remain firm.
• Importers / Roasters (NL): Use current weakness in Dutch FCA prices to cover short- to medium-term needs, especially for pieces and FS. Stagger purchases for whole kernels given firmer Vietnam FOB and potential year-end promotional demand.
• Exporters (Vietnam / India): With FOB offers inching higher in Vietnam and softening only marginally in India, prioritise quality and on-time shipment. Pay close attention to documentation, letters of credit, and Incoterms to avoid container hold-ups in European ports.
• Industrial users (EU snacks, bakery): Consider opportunistic buying of broken and split grades while Dutch FCA prices are under mild pressure. Avoid aggressive forward stock-building, as global supply and trade data point to continued availability into Q4 2026.

Regional 3‑day directional view (spot, indicative):

• Dordrecht (NL, FCA kernels): Slight downward to flat bias across most grades.
• Hanoi (VN, FOB kernels): Flat to slightly firmer, especially WW320/WW240, in line with recent export price gains.
• New Delhi (IN, FOB kernels): Slightly softer to stable, tracking easing domestic mandi benchmarks despite ongoing export activity.