CBOT oats ease on spillover selling while EU cash prices hold firm

Oat prices are slightly softer on CBOT in late July, pressured by weaker corn and soybeans, while European feed oat cash values remain broadly steady to firm amid cautious farmer selling and comfortable local feed grain supplies. The oat market is currently trading in the shadow of larger cereals. Internationally, risk premia around the Black Sea focus more on wheat flows than on minor grains, and importers are drawing on good domestic harvests, limiting spot demand. On CBOT, oats have edged lower in thin volume, following corn and soybeans down, whereas physical feed oat prices in north‑west Europe show resilience as local mills cover nearby needs and farmers hold back at lower levels. Weather in key oat origins is mixed but not yet threatening enough to outweigh ample old‑crop inventories and a generally comfortable EU cereal balance.

Prices

CBOT oats are trading slightly weaker. The September 2026 contract last dealt around 311 US‑cents/bu, down about 0.5% versus the previous day, with very low traded volume and narrow bid‑ask spreads. The December 2026 contract is marginally higher on the day near 328 US‑cents/bu, while deferred 2027–28 positions remain under moderate pressure across the curve.

In the European cash market, German feed oats (EXW Drentwede, feed grade) have moved broadly sideways to slightly firmer. Current indications are around EUR 0.195/kg, implying roughly EUR 195/t, up from around EUR 179/t earlier in July. Ukrainian feed oats (FCA Odesa) have softened recently from about EUR 0.25/kg to roughly EUR 0.22/kg, reflecting both regional logistics risk and competitive pressure from ample regional feed grain supplies.

Supply & Demand

Global cereal markets remain well supplied, and oats are no exception. Importers in key regions currently rely on their own generous harvests in major grains, reducing the urgency to source oats on the world market. For wheat, the disruption of deep‑water exports from Ukraine contrasts with largely unimpeded Russian shipments, but this risk premium has so far not translated into a structural bid for oats.

Within the EU, oats remain a relatively small cereal but benefit from a generally comfortable cereal balance. Recent EU short‑term outlook data point to rising oat production and higher ending stocks in 2025/26, driven by increased area and solid yields. At the same time, EU oat feed use continues to grow steadily alongside a larger livestock sector, keeping demand for feed oats robust even as overall cereal supply is ample.

In North America, official outlooks project modest declines in US oat output for 2026/27 compared with previous years, but the crop remains sufficient relative to domestic demand. Canada has reduced oat area by around 15% for 2026, which could tighten export availability later in the season if yields disappoint, though current projections still point to adequate supplies.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Oat futures currently move more on external cues than on their own fundamentals. Weakness in CBOT corn and soybeans has weighed on wheat and spilled over to oats, while stronger crude oil prices have provided little offsetting support to grain markets. Speculative activity remains focused on larger contracts such as Euronext milling wheat, where financial investors have recently expanded net long positions significantly, while liquidity in oats is thin and directional flows are relatively small.

At the same time, international demand for cereals is described as subdued. Importers are in no rush to book additional volumes as they can lean on good domestic harvests and earlier purchases. For oats, this means limited incremental demand from feed manufacturers and food processors on the export side. In the EU physical market, feed mills are mostly covering only nearby needs, while farmers’ willingness to sell ahead is decreasing at current price levels, helping to underpin local cash prices despite the soft tone on the futures side.

Weather Outlook

Weather conditions across key oat‑growing regions are mixed but not critical at this stage. In the Canadian Prairies, late July is characterized by contrasting patterns: hot, dry spells in parts of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, while central areas face unsettled, stormy conditions. This combination may cause localized yield variability but does not yet point to a widespread production shock.

Seasonal outlooks for Canada and northern Europe indicate above‑normal temperatures with regionally variable rainfall through the remainder of summer, suggesting a need to monitor moisture deficits but, for now, supporting expectations of at least average oat yields. As harvest progresses in Europe, weather risks gradually shift from yield formation to quality (test weight, moisture), which could impact the share of oats suitable for milling versus feed.

Trading Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)

• Futures: With CBOT oats tracking corn and soybeans and fundamental demand still soft, a sideways to slightly lower trading range for nearby contracts looks likely unless Black Sea risks escalate or weather in Canada/Europe turns markedly adverse.
• EU cash oats: German and wider EU feed oat prices should remain supported by cautious farmer selling and steady feed demand. Upside appears limited by abundant alternative feed grains, but downside is cushioned near current levels around EUR 190–200/t.
• Buying strategy: Feed compounders may consider scaling in coverage for Q4 2026 and early 2027 on dips, particularly if CBOT and Black Sea‑related risk premiums temporarily push prices lower.
• Selling strategy: Producers with good crop prospects might hedge a portion of 2026/27 output on rallies linked to broader grain volatility, while maintaining flexibility in case of weather‑driven quality or yield issues.

3‑Day Directional Outlook (EUR)

• CBOT‑linked values (synthetic EUR): Slight downside bias, tracking broader grains; intraday volatility likely but no strong trend trigger seen over the next three sessions.
• German feed oats EXW: Stable to mildly firm around EUR 195/t as mills maintain spot demand and on‑farm selling remains measured.
• Ukrainian feed oats FCA Odesa: Slightly weaker to sideways near EUR 220/t amid regional logistics uncertainty and competition from other Black Sea feed grains.