Cheaper Chinese Walnuts Weigh on Global Prices as Demand Stalls
Walnut prices remain under pressure as competitively priced Chinese kernels meet subdued demand. Overview of current EUR prices, fundamentals, weather and trading outlook.
Prices
Recent trading saw walnuts quoted around $3.67–$6.29 per kg (approximately €3.40–€5.80 per kg), depending on quality and origin. The lower end of this range reflects aggressive Chinese-origin offers, while higher quotes correspond mostly to premium and organic grades.
FOB Dalian indications for Chinese walnut kernels are broadly stable versus mid-August, with light quarters around €3.05/kg and light pieces between €2.10–€2.65/kg. Organic light halves from the US and India continue to command a notable premium, trading roughly in the €4.20–€4.95/kg range on FOB basis, supported by firmer specialty demand.
Supply & Demand
Ample and competitively priced Chinese supplies are the dominant driver of today’s weak tone. Export flows from Northern China remain smooth, and key producing regions such as Xinjiang are now entering an active harvest phase, reinforcing expectations of abundant raw material in the short term.
On the demand side, many international buyers appear sufficiently covered after earlier forward purchases. With no clear sign of a step-change in consumer or industrial offtake, additional Chinese volumes are translating directly into pricing pressure rather than increased throughput. Domestic markets in importing regions thus remain subdued despite globally healthy shipment statistics from major exporters such as California and Chile.
Fundamentals & Weather
Fundamentals currently favour buyers. Chinese kernel prices have been broadly stable through late August, with no major weather disruptions reported in Northern China’s walnut provinces in the past days. The ongoing harvest in Xinjiang is proceeding under largely normal conditions, supporting the prospect of steady near-term supply.
In California, where the new crop is still developing, recent reports point to mostly benign weather and improving irrigation management, while regional drought indicators bear watching but are not yet translating into an acute walnut supply threat. Meanwhile, Chilean exports show differing trends between in-shell and kernels, but overall volumes remain sufficient to complement Northern Hemisphere supplies.
Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas
Market direction (next 4–6 weeks): Sideways to slightly softer. Cheaper Chinese-origin material and subdued domestic buying are likely to keep a cap on any rally until clearer evidence of demand recovery appears.
- Buyers (roasters, packers, retailers): Use current stable Chinese FOB levels to secure light pieces and quarters for Q4/Q1 coverage. Consider staggered purchasing to benefit from any further harvest-related softness in CN or early new-crop offers from California.
- Sellers (producers, shellers): Focus on quality differentiation (colour, size, certifications) to defend premiums against low-priced Chinese kernels. Where storage allows, avoid aggressive discounting at current levels and target niche channels that value traceability and organic origin.
- Traders: The wide spread between standard Chinese kernels and premium organic grades offers relative value plays; maintain short bias in lower-quality segments while being selective on long positions in high-grade, well-branded product.
3-Day Price Indication (Directional)
- FOB Dalian, CN kernels: Stable to slightly easier as harvest pressure builds and export offers remain competitive.
- FOB Western Europe (US/IN organic kernels): Steady to mildly firm, supported by resilient specialty demand and limited immediate downside.
- Delivered EU mainstream kernels: Mostly stable; any further weakness will hinge on how aggressively Chinese exporters price new-crop volumes into Europe.