Chickpea Prices Ease in India and Mexico as Heat Builds in Key Regions

Chickpea FOB prices in both India and Mexico are edging lower, with medium declines across sizes indicating a mildly bearish tone. Hotter-than-normal conditions in North India are not yet translating into acute supply stress, while stable weather in Mexican chickpea areas leaves export offers under gentle pressure.

Chickpea markets remain fundamentally well supplied as we move through late March 2026. In India, elevated Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for rabi pulses support farmer planting, but current hot, mostly dry weather across much of the north favours harvest progress rather than crop damage so far. In Mexico, no major weather or logistics disruptions have emerged in the last few days, and international demand appears price-sensitive, encouraging sellers to trim offers. With freight and FX comparatively steady, FOB softness in New Delhi and Mexico City is likely to persist in the very near term.

📈 Prices & Recent Moves

Origin	Type (size)	Location / Term	Latest price (EUR/kg FOB)	WoW change (EUR/kg)
India	60–62 count, 8 mm	New Delhi, FOB	~0.77	-0.02
India	58–60 count, 9 mm	New Delhi, FOB	~0.79	-0.02
India	46–48 count, 10 mm	New Delhi, FOB	~0.83	-0.02
India	44–46 count, 11 mm	New Delhi, FOB	~0.86	-0.02
India	42–44 count, 12 mm	New Delhi, FOB	~0.89	-0.02
Mexico	75–80 count, 8 mm	Mexico City, FOB	~0.72	-0.02
Mexico	42–44 count, 12 mm	Mexico City, FOB	~1.14	-0.02

(Prices converted approximately from USD to EUR for comparability.)

• FOB chickpea prices in New Delhi are down roughly EUR 0.015–0.02/kg week-on-week across most Kabuli sizes, extending a steady downward trend visible since late February.
• Mexican FOB offers from Mexico City for both small and large calibres show similar incremental declines of about EUR 0.02/kg over the last week.
• Differentials between Indian and Mexican origin for large-calibre chickpeas remain significant, keeping India competitive into nearby Asian markets, while Mexico continues to target Mediterranean and North American buyers.

🌍 Supply, Policy & Weather Drivers

India (IN)

• Rabi pulse incentives: The Indian government recently raised MSPs for rabi crops, including chickpeas (gram), reinforcing incentives for pulse area and underlining an officially supportive stance toward pulse self-sufficiency.
• Weather: North and northwest India, including Delhi, are experiencing unusually high March temperatures, with maximums 7–10°C above normal and IMD flagging ongoing heat-wave conditions in parts of the region.
• Short-term impact: For chickpeas, this pattern currently favours rapid field drying and harvest progress rather than yield loss, adding near-term supply to the market and contributing to softer FOB values.
• Import competition: Broader Indian pulse market conditions remain influenced by earlier policy allowing substantial imports of other pulses like yellow peas, indirectly capping upside for desi and kabuli chickpeas.

Mexico (MX)

• Weather: No major storms or extreme anomalies have been reported in the last three days that would materially disrupt agriculture in key chickpea-producing regions such as Sinaloa and Sonora; North American storm activity has been centred further north, away from main Mexican chickpea belts.
• Crop and logistics: With the absence of new weather shocks and without fresh export restrictions or port disruptions reported in recent days, Mexican exporters appear able to meet contract schedules, encouraging competitive offers.
• Demand tone: Buyers in the Mediterranean and North America remain price-sensitive amid comfortable global pulse supplies, limiting the ability of Mexican sellers to push prices higher in the short run.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Sentiment

• Global pulse backdrop: Recent policy and analytical reports point toward a multi-year push for higher pulse output in India, including gram (chickpeas), as part of broader food inflation control and self-sufficiency efforts, reinforcing expectations of adequate medium-term supply.
• Weather risk premium: While immediate conditions in India and Mexico are not currently damaging chickpea prospects, the hotter-than-usual March–May outlook for much of India suggests weather risk will remain in traders’ calculations, even if not yet priced aggressively into chickpeas.
• Macro and FX: No major currency or freight shocks have emerged over the past few days to offset the fundamentally soft tone; as a result, spot movements are relatively modest and gradual.

📆 Short-Term Price Outlook (3 Days)

India – New Delhi FOB

• Weather in and around Delhi remains hot and largely dry, supporting uninterrupted movement from farms to market and reducing post-harvest moisture issues.
• Direction (3 days): Mildly bearish to sideways. Small additional easing of ~EUR 0.005–0.01/kg is possible if arrivals stay strong and export buying remains cautious.

Mexico – Mexico City FOB

• With no fresh evidence of weather or logistics disruptions in Mexican chickpea regions in the past three days, export programs should continue smoothly.
• Direction (3 days): Mostly sideways with a slight downward bias. Any further moves are likely small, around EUR 0.005–0.01/kg, driven mainly by competitive discounting rather than fundamentals.

📌 Trading Recommendations

• Importers (Asia & Mediterranean): Consider staggered short-covering from India over the next week while FOB values remain under gentle pressure; avoid overcommitting ahead of potential weather or policy headlines later in the season.
• Exporters (India & Mexico): Maintain flexible offer strategies, with limited room for price hikes. Premiums for large calibres should be preserved, but be prepared to negotiate on volume parcels.
• End-users & processors: Use the current mild downtrend to build moderate stocks rather than chase the absolute bottom, especially where chickpeas compete with other pulses whose policy risk may be higher.