Chickpea Prices Hold Firm in India, Softer Undercurrent in Mexico

Indian and Mexican chickpea prices are broadly stable into early June, with India supported by firm domestic demand and policy-managed supplies, while Mexico faces downside risks from a large Sinaloa crop and active export programs. Indian FOB/FCA chickpea offers around New Delhi are edging moderately higher versus late May in EUR terms, tracking steady-to-firm mandi prices in central India and robust government buffer stocks that underpin market confidence. In Mexico, export-level prices from Sinaloa remain flat on the week but are vulnerable to pressure as local producers warn of over‑supply. Weather in both regions is seasonally normal to slightly wetter, with India’s advancing monsoon easing heat stress on stored pulses and Mexico moving past its main harvest window. Overall, short‑term price direction looks mildly firmer in India and slightly softer to sideways in Mexico.

Prices & Spreads

All values approx., converted to EUR using 1 EUR ≈ 90 INR and 1 EUR ≈ 20 MXN; rounded.

Domestic wholesale markets in India show Kabuli chana around INR 6.9–8.0/kg (≈ EUR 0.08–0.09/kg) at key mandis such as Bhopal and Indore, indicating stable to slightly firm underlying demand since early June.

Supply & Demand Drivers

India (IN)

• Ample government stocks: Central buffer stocks of gram (chana) have reached about 4.3 million tonnes in May 2026, roughly 2.5 times last year’s level, giving authorities room to intervene if retail prices spike.
• Demand steady, imports slow: Trade reports indicate slow import pace for desi gram and other pulses into India, suggesting domestic availability is largely domestic‑crop and stock driven, keeping a floor under Kabuli values without triggering sharp rallies.
• Retail support from dal markets: Chana dal average prices around INR 7,600/qtl this week signal healthy downstream demand and cost‑push support to chickpea values.

Mexico (MX)

• Large Sinaloa crop: Producers in Sinaloa report that chickpea (garbanzo) area for the 2023–24 autumn–winter cycle roughly doubled to around 80,000 ha, raising concerns over market saturation and downward pressure on farm‑gate prices.
• Active exports but limited relief: Sinaloa is currently shipping around 10,000 tonnes of chickpeas to Algeria via container exports, plus other contracts, yet local leaders still fear that the expanded crop may exceed export absorption and weigh on prices as more volumes hit the market.
• Competitive large‑calibre product: Mexico continues to focus on 9–12 mm Kabuli for Mediterranean and European buyers, which explains the relatively higher EUR/kg levels on 12 mm grades compared with Indian offers of smaller calibres.

Fundamentals & Weather

India – Monsoon Transition

• The southwest monsoon has advanced into southern and northeastern India, with IMD forecasting widespread rains there and thunderstorms with gusty winds over north and central states including Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh in coming days.
• For chickpeas, which are largely in storage post‑rabi harvest, the key near‑term impact is logistical: intermittent storms and gusty winds can slow movement but also keep temperatures below earlier May highs, easing quality risks for stored stock in north and central India.
• Seasonal outlooks suggest El Niño could trim rainfall later in the season, but for the next week weather is neutral‑to‑supportive for trading and stock management rather than a direct yield story.

Mexico – Post‑Harvest Conditions

• In Sinaloa and Sonora, the main chickpea harvest is effectively complete; current concerns are commercial rather than weather‑related, centred on marketing a large crop amid indications of high plantings and potential price erosion.
• Typical early‑June conditions (rising temperatures, localised showers) have limited immediate impact on quality for already harvested stock, though any early tropical disturbances could briefly affect port logistics on the Pacific coast.

Short-Term Price Outlook (3 Days)

India (FOB/FCA New Delhi)

• Direction: Slightly firmer to stable over the next 3 days.
• Rationale: Strong government buffer, steady mandi and dal prices, and manageable monsoon‑related logistics argue against any near‑term downside; modest appreciation in higher calibres (10–12 mm) is possible if export interest improves.

Mexico (FOB Mexico City / Sinaloa shipments)

• Direction: Stable to mildly softer in the next 3 days.
• Rationale: Producer concern over over‑supply, combined with ongoing export shipments that are not large enough to clear the market quickly, keeps a gentle downward bias, particularly on smaller or lower‑spec parcels.

Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers (India importers / global users): Use current stability in Indian FOB/FCA offers to extend coverage modestly, especially on 46–48 and 42–44 count Kabuli, while avoiding aggressive front‑loading in case government stock releases cap domestic prices.
• Buyers (Mediterranean / EU): Consider Mexico for 9–12 mm premium product but negotiate harder on price citing expanded Sinaloa acreage and producer fears of a glut; Indian offers can be used as a price reference floor.
• Producers & sellers (India): With large public stocks and only gradual demand growth, holding for a sharp near‑term rally looks risky; staggered sales into any monsoon‑related logistical tightness may be safer.
• Producers & sellers (Mexico): Prioritise early execution on existing export contracts and explore additional destinations beyond North Africa and Europe to avoid later‑season pressure if unsold stocks build.