Chickpea Prices Steady to Soft in India, Premium Persists for Mexican Origin

Chickpea export offers from India and Mexico are broadly stable at end-March, with a gentle softening in Mexico and flat levels in India. No immediate weather or policy shock is visible, suggesting a continuation of range-bound pricing with a modest edge to buyers in the short term.

Export markets are digesting comfortable domestic availability in India and ample private stocks reported in key producing states such as Gujarat, while Mexican chickpeas continue to command a quality premium. Recent weather in northern India has turned unsettled but comes late in the crop cycle, limiting damage risk and leaving fundamentals largely supply-adequate. With no fresh government interventions on pulses and demand outside Ramadan seasonally calmer, price direction over the next few days is expected to be sideways with a slight downside bias, particularly for lower grades.

📈 Prices & Spreads

All prices converted to EUR using an indicative rate of 1 EUR ≈ 90 INR and 1 EUR ≈ 20 MXN. Values are approximate FOB indications as of 27 March 2026.

Origin	Type / Size	Latest FOB price (EUR/kg)	1-week change
India – New Delhi	Chickpeas, 60–62 count, 8 mm	≈ 0.77 EUR	Flat vs 20 March
India – New Delhi	Chickpeas, 42–44 count, 12 mm	≈ 0.88 EUR	Flat vs 20 March
Mexico – Mexico City	Chickpeas, 75–80 count, 8 mm	≈ 0.75 EUR	Flat vs 20 March
Mexico – Mexico City	Chickpeas, 42–44 count, 12 mm	≈ 1.17 EUR	Flat vs 20 March

Indicative mandi prices for Kabuli chana in India (e.g. Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh) are broadly aligned with these export levels, with trade chatter pointing to a wide band of roughly 1.2–2.0 EUR/20 kg equivalent depending on size and quality in Gujarat during March.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

India remains the dominant global chickpea supplier, accounting for roughly two-thirds of world production in recent seasons. Rabi 2025–26 pulse area and production are generally reported higher year on year, with total rabi output projected up just over 3%, supporting comfortable domestic availability. Farmer and trade comments from Gujarat indicate sizable private stocks of Kabuli chickpeas looking for export and domestic outlets, reinforcing the current ceiling on prices.

On the demand side, Ramadan-driven front loading of purchases has already taken place, and nearby import demand from key buyers in West Asia and North Africa appears cautious, limiting upside for export offers. At the same time, high freight costs and strong competition from other pulses (yellow peas under low or zero duty into India) continue to cap any aggressive appreciation in chickpea prices.

⛅ Weather Snapshot – IN & MX

In northern India, including Delhi and parts of Uttar Pradesh, a fresh spell of rain and thunderstorms has been flagged by the meteorological authorities, with cloudy, showery conditions expected over the coming days. This system arrives late in the rabi chickpea cycle when much of the crop is already at maturity or harvest, so the net market impact is limited to potential short-term harvest delays and minor quality concerns rather than large-scale yield losses.

Earlier in March, much of north and central India, including major pulse belts, experienced abnormally high temperatures and heat-wave conditions. While this raised concerns mid-season, overall rabi output estimates remain robust, suggesting that any local stress did not translate into a meaningful national shortfall. For Mexico, no significant adverse weather developments affecting chickpea-exporting regions have been reported in the last few days, and planting/stock conditions are assumed broadly normal for this short-term horizon.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Tone

• Stocks: Reports of large private inventories in Indian producing states, notably Gujarat, underpin a comfortable supply picture and give buyers leverage in nearby negotiations.
• Policy backdrop: High import duties on chickpeas into India remain in place, while yellow peas enjoy extended duty-free access until March 2026, indirectly tempering chickpea price ambitions domestically.
• Competing crops: Record or near-record rabi grain production, including wheat, signals strong overall field performance and no broad weather shock, reinforcing the view of adequate pulse supply.

Overall market tone is mildly bearish to neutral: buyers see little urgency to chase volumes, while sellers are more focused on moving existing stocks than holding out for higher prices. The premium for larger Kabuli sizes (10–12 mm) over smaller grades remains clearly visible, particularly for Mexican origin, but that premium has stopped widening in the last week.

🧭 Trading Outlook (Short Term)

• Importers in West Asia / North Africa: Consider staggered purchases over the next 1–2 weeks, using current soft undertone to secure coverage, but avoid over-buying given still-comfortable Indian and Mexican supplies.
• Indian exporters: With flat FOB levels and healthy stocks, focus on competitive offers in mid grades (8–10 mm) to defend market share; use any short-lived rallies in local mandis to forward sell.
• Mexican sellers: Maintain the quality premium but be prepared for small discounts on 12 mm lots to match Indian competition into price-sensitive destinations if freight narrows arbitrage.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• India (FOB New Delhi, all main sizes): Prices expected to remain broadly sideways to slightly softer in EUR terms over the next three days, with any weakness driven more by currency and local stock pressure than by fundamentals.
• Mexico (FOB Mexico City, Kabuli 8–12 mm): Prices likely to trade steady with a mild downside bias, as buyers compare offers closely with Indian origin and exploit the current lull in demand.