Chickpeas Edge Higher on Firm Indian Demand and Steady Mexican Offers

Chickpea export prices from India and Mexico are edging higher, supported by firm domestic demand in India and stable buying interest from key importers, while monsoon uncertainty keeps risk premia in the market. In India, kabuli chickpea (white chickpeas) mandi prices have held firm in early July, reflecting active local demand and cautious farmer selling as the monsoon, though improving, remains uneven across key pulse-growing states. Mexico continues to offer competitive FOB values into Mediterranean and Middle Eastern destinations, but exporters are watchful of upcoming hot and dry conditions in key producing areas. Overall, the short‑term balance points to mildly supportive price action rather than a sharp rally, with weather and sowing progress likely to drive volatility through July.

Prices

All prices converted approximately at EUR 1 = USD 1.10.

Indian wholesale kabuli chickpea prices across mandis are currently averaging about INR 6,700–6,800 per 100 kg, broadly consistent with slightly firmer export indications. Mexican export reference levels for chickpeas in July remain stable to marginally higher versus June, in line with modestly supportive global demand.

Supply & Demand

India remains the key driver on the demand side. Pulses production is heavily concentrated in monsoon core states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, which are still recovering from a very weak June rainfall pattern. As planting decisions and crop development for the 2026/27 season firm up, buyers are willing to accept slightly higher kabuli prices to secure coverage.

In Mexico, chickpea exports are oriented mainly towards Mediterranean and Middle Eastern markets, where demand has been steady but not exceptionally strong. With India’s import demand for pulses structurally high and global buyers monitoring Indian monsoon performance, Mexican origin continues to benefit as a diversification source, especially for larger-size kabuli types that command a premium.

Weather & Crop Outlook (IN, MX)

India (IN): After the driest June in over a decade, India’s July monsoon performance is improving but still projected to be below normal overall, leaving kharif crop prospects somewhat fragile. The India Meteorological Department reports that the monsoon has now covered the entire country and the national rainfall deficit has narrowed to around 17% by early July, but distribution remains uneven, with some pulses belts still short of moisture.

Short-range forecasts indicate a weakening of rains over parts of Rajasthan in mid-July, which may keep farmers cautious about aggressive sowing in chickpea-intensive regions. Overall, weather risk for the 2026/27 pulse crop remains skewed to the downside, supporting a modest weather premium in chickpea prices.

Mexico (MX): In northwestern Mexico (including Sinaloa, an important chickpea area), the seasonal canícula period from mid-July is expected to bring hotter, drier weather and reduced rainfall. While the main chickpea crop is not in its most moisture-sensitive stage during July, extended heat and dryness can impact soil moisture and planning for the next sowing cycle, prompting exporters to maintain a cautious offer stance rather than discounting aggressively.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• India’s domestic floor: Firm mandi prices and delayed sowing in some monsoon-dependent states are providing a solid floor for export values, especially for larger kabuli sizes.
• Weather premium: Below-normal July rainfall expectations across large parts of India keep a risk premium in pulse markets, limiting downside despite adequate stocks in some channels.
• Stable external demand: Import demand from Mediterranean and Middle Eastern buyers remains steady, underpinning Mexican export prices and supporting Indian offers at slightly higher levels.
• Speculative positioning: With monsoon uncertainty elevated, trade houses and larger buyers are inclined to hold some length in chickpeas and related pulses rather than run minimal coverage into late July and August.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Regional View

• Importers (EU, MENA): Consider covering near-term kabuli needs (4–6 weeks) now, as current EUR-denominated offers from India and Mexico are only modestly above recent lows but could firm further if July rainfall disappoints.
• Indian exporters: Use the current slight uptick to lock in margins on available physical, but remain flexible on forward sales until a clearer picture of monsoon performance over key pulse states emerges.
• Mexican shippers: Maintain offer discipline; with competitive positioning versus Indian origin and approaching hot, dry conditions, deep discounts appear unwarranted in the very short term.

3‑day directional price indication (all in EUR, directional only):

• IN – New Delhi FOB kabuli (all sizes): Slightly firmer bias over the next three days on the back of steady mandi prices and ongoing monsoon uncertainty.
• MX – Mexico City FOB kabuli (all sizes): Largely stable with a mild upward tone, supported by steady export demand and cautious outlook ahead of hotter, drier weather in key producing regions.