Chickpeas: Indian Chana Softens but Festive Demand Limits Downside

Indian chickpea prices have eased slightly as dal mills resist paying recent highs, but low processor inventories, tight import availability and strong festive demand for chana dal and besan are expected to cap any major downside in the near term. Chickpea markets are shifting into a more balanced but still firm configuration. In Delhi, chana has corrected by roughly ₹50 per quintal, yet selling at lower price levels remains limited as mills carry relatively small working stocks and must return regularly to the open market. Festive-season consumption of chana dal and besan is underpinning demand into October, while low import arrivals and a modest central pool continue to frame the supply side. At the same time, improving rainfall in key Indian producing regions is easing immediate concern over the rabi sowing window, while sharply lower Australian chickpea plantings hint at tighter medium-term global availability rather than an imminent glut.

Prices

In Delhi, Rajasthan-origin chana is reported around ₹7,025–7,050 per quintal, down approximately ₹50, while Madhya Pradesh-origin chana trades near ₹6,975–7,000 per quintal after a similar marginal decline. Despite this adjustment, downside follow-through has been limited as sellers show little interest at lower bids and mills continue to cover hand-to-mouth.

Export quotations reflect a firm undertone rather than outright weakness. Recent indicative FOB prices in New Delhi are unchanged to slightly higher, with "Chickpeas dried" at EUR 0.86 (count 60–62, 8 mm), EUR 0.91 (count 58–60, 9 mm), EUR 0.92 (count 46–48, 10 mm) and EUR 0.95 (count 44–46, 11 mm) per kg, while larger 12 mm sizes are indicated at EUR 0.98 per kg FOB. In Rajkot, India-origin "Chickpeas dried" is quoted at EUR 1.00 per kg FOB as of 28 September 2026, compared with EUR 0.97–1.00 per kg in the previous week, signaling that the domestic futures of further heavy declines are not yet priced in.

Mexican offers are broadly steady to slightly higher at the margin, with Mexico City FOB indications for "Chickpeas dried" around EUR 0.86 per kg (count 75–80, 8 mm) and EUR 1.21 per kg (count 42–44, 12 mm), suggesting that international replacement values remain constructive and offer limited relief to Indian importers.

Supply & Demand

Domestically in India, the near-term supply balance is defined by low working inventories at dal mills and restricted imported availability. Many processors are operating with lean stocks, forcing them to buy from the spot market even on modest dips, while imported chickpea stocks at ports are described as low and fresh arrivals from Tanzania are limited. This combination is preventing the market from clearing much lower, despite some buyer resistance at recent highs.

The central pool is estimated to hold about 1.95 million tonnes of chana, acting as a key potential buffer. However, with festival demand for chana dal and besan now in full swing, this stock is unlikely to feel excessive in the short term. Consumption is expected to remain seasonally strong through the ongoing festive period, providing a solid demand floor for physical chickpeas as well as derived products.

Globally, Australia remains the pivotal secondary supplier after India. Recent official outlooks point to significantly reduced Australian chickpea plantings and production in 2026–27, with one national forecast estimating chickpea output could fall to roughly 1.1 million tonnes, a drop of around 50% year-on-year on the back of lower area and less favorable planting conditions. This prospective tightening in Australian export availability reinforces the supportive medium-term tone for international chickpea values, particularly for import-reliant markets in South Asia and the Middle East.

Fundamentals & Weather

On the fundamental side, the market is navigating a tug-of-war between softer near-term sentiment and structurally tight underpinnings. The recent price dip in Delhi reflects a short-lived pushback from mills after previous gains, but low pipeline stocks, restricted imports and relatively limited farmer selling at current bids underpin a broadly firm structure. The estimated 1.95 million tonnes in the central pool provides some reassurance but does not yet signal surplus conditions.

Weather developments are crucial for the forward balance. While the 2026 southwest monsoon has generally underperformed against long-term averages, updated assessments point to some improvement in rainfall in India’s principal pulse belts late in the season, easing immediate concerns around soil moisture going into rabi chickpea sowing. At the same time, climate and economic research notes that the overall monsoon deficit remains meaningful, and reservoir levels and soil profiles will need continued monitoring as sowing progresses.

In Australia, official crop projections highlight both lower chickpea area and production and a heightened sensitivity to rainfall outcomes in Queensland and New South Wales. Any further deterioration in seasonal conditions there could tighten global supplies further, while a weather recovery would mainly stabilise, rather than materially loosen, the world balance given the already reduced plantings.

Market Outlook & Trading Ideas

Near term, chana prices in India are expected to remain broadly range-bound with a mildly soft bias as recent rainfall improvements support confidence in rabi sowing and some mills attempt to cap procurement costs. However, limited imported availability, low mill inventories and resilient festive demand should restrict any pronounced downside and keep the market well supported on dips.

• For processors (dal/besan mills): Consider maintaining at least normal cover through the festive season, using any further ₹50–100 per quintal corrections to top up nearby requirements rather than waiting for a deeper break that current fundamentals do not justify.
• For exporters: With Indian FOB offers for key sizes in New Delhi and Rajkot holding firm and Australian supply prospects tightening, cautious forward sales on a rolling basis appear prudent, focusing on nearby positions where festival-led demand is most visible.
• For importers/large buyers: Given the combination of low Indian port stocks, constrained Tanzanian arrivals and weaker Australian production expectations, use any temporary weakness in Indian domestic prices or freight to extend coverage modestly into Q4, while avoiding over-commitment ahead of clearer evidence on rabi acreage and early crop conditions.

Over the next three days, spot chana values in Delhi are likely to trade sideways to slightly lower within a narrow band around current levels, with intraday softness quickly met by mill buying. Indian FOB indications in New Delhi and Rajkot are expected to remain broadly stable, while Mexican FOB quotes should stay steady to fractionally firm, reflecting the tighter global backdrop and limited alternative origins.