Indian Rainfall Deficits Put 2026/27 Chickpea Rabi Outlook Under Scrutiny

Uneven monsoon rainfall across India’s chickpea belt is emerging as a key risk for the 2026/27 rabi chickpea crop, with Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Karnataka entering October sowing on weaker soil-moisture footing, while Uttar Pradesh and parts of Madhya Pradesh look relatively comfortable. Against this backdrop, Indian and Mexican FOB chickpea quotations remain firm, and traders are increasingly weather‑driven as they assess whether the current moisture deficit will translate into lower plantings or yield risk. India’s chickpea market is now highly sensitive to October rainfall and early sowing progress. Around 57% of the monitored chickpea area has seen rainfall deficits of 20% or more since June, concentrated in key rabi regions. Maharashtra is the most exposed major state, while Gujarat’s coastal districts and parts of Rajasthan and Karnataka also show sizeable shortfalls. For global buyers, this coincides with a smaller Australian export surplus and firm import demand, supporting prices into Q4 2026.

Prices

FOB chickpea prices are holding firm to slightly higher, reflecting both earlier tightening in global supplies and India’s emerging weather risks. In India, dried chickpeas FOB Rajkot are quoted at EUR 1.00/kg as of 28 September 2026, unchanged from the previous day but up from EUR 0.96–0.97/kg earlier in the month. In New Delhi, Kabuli types have edged higher, with larger calibres still commanding a premium.

Mexican export values remain broadly supported as well. Dried chickpeas FOB Mexico City are indicated at EUR 0.86/kg for 8 mm count 75–80 as of 26 September 2026, while premium 12 mm counts stand at EUR 1.21/kg. Together with firm domestic trade benchmarks in India and wholesale indicators in North America, this confirms that the recent price correction in pulses has stalled for chickpeas, with markets instead bracing for possible renewed tightness into the 2026/27 marketing year.

Supply & Demand

India remains the pivotal player in global chickpeas, and the current monsoon outcome is setting up a more uncertain 2026/27 supply picture. Across 93 key chickpea districts, 46 (representing around 57% of the area in the assessment) have recorded rainfall deficits of 20% or more between 1 June and 26 September. Because chickpea is predominantly a rabi crop sown in October–November, residual soil moisture from the monsoon is crucial for timely planting and strong early establishment.

Maharashtra is the most affected major state with rainfall about 37% below normal across its 26.44 lakh hectares of chickpea area assessed, and 17 of 20 districts in deficit. Severe shortfalls in districts such as Solapur (58% below normal), Beed and Hingoli (49% below) and several Marathwada and Vidarbha locations raise the risk that farmers delay or reduce chickpea sowing in favour of more resilient or irrigated options. Recent local reporting underlines drought concerns and the possibility that some growers may skip rabi chickpea altogether in the worst‑hit pockets.    

Gujarat’s chickpea belt, covering about 5.47 lakh hectares across 10 districts, shows a 24% overall rainfall deficit. Within this, coastal districts such as Devbhumi Dwarka (73% below normal), Porbandar (60% below) and Jamnagar (48% below) illustrate how state averages can mask acute local moisture stress. Karnataka and Rajasthan also show substantial deficits of roughly 26% and 23%, respectively, with several key districts in both states classified as deficient, adding to regional production risk should October rains disappoint.

By contrast, Madhya Pradesh, with about 16.59 lakh hectares of chickpea area in the assessment, has a more moderate 10% deficit overall, and Uttar Pradesh stands out with rainfall around 48% above normal across its chickpea belt. In UP, districts such as Mahoba (+89%), Hamirpur (+81%) and Banda (+75%) point to ample soil moisture going into rabi; the main question there is managing field conditions rather than drought. This divergence suggests India’s overall chickpea production outcome will hinge on whether surplus regions can offset potential area or yield losses in deficit belts.

Outside India, smaller 2026 Australian chickpea expectations and tight exportable balances in other key origins keep the global supply side finely balanced. Industry commentary indicates that after prior bumper years, Australian chickpea area has contracted somewhat, reducing the likely buffer if Indian production underperforms. This combination of localized Indian weather risk and limited global slack is reinforcing a cautiously bullish tone in international chickpea trade.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the rainfall pattern across India’s chickpea belt acts as an early warning indicator rather than a definitive production forecast. The final 2026/27 outcome will depend on October precipitation, realized sowing area, irrigation support, germination conditions and weather during pod filling. The most critical watchpoints are Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, Rajasthan, Gujarat and parts of Andhra Pradesh, where current soil‑moisture deficits could curb plantings or expose crops to early‑season stress if follow‑up rains remain below normal.

Short‑term climate outlooks for India’s post‑monsoon period remain influenced by ongoing El Niño conditions, which have already contributed to an overall weaker southwest monsoon. Seasonal guidance points to continued rainfall variability heading into October, implying that risk premia in chickpea markets are likely to persist until clearer sowing and emergence data become available. For now, the rainfall statistics argue for a higher‑than‑usual probability of localized production issues in western and southern belts, even if national‑level output ultimately remains near average.

Trading Outlook

• Importers and canners: Consider covering a higher share of Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs now, while FOB India Rajkot holds around EUR 1.00/kg and New Delhi large calibres remain below EUR 1.00/kg, to hedge against potential upward repricing if Maharashtra and Gujarat sowing falters.
• Indian processors and domestic users: Monitor early official sowing figures and mandi arrivals closely. If rainfall in October underperforms in Marathwada, Vidarbha, Rajasthan and coastal Gujarat, be prepared for tighter domestic availability and firmer besan and Kabuli prices into late Q4.
• Producers in surplus regions (Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh): Given relatively favourable moisture, there may be an opportunity to slightly expand chickpea area where agronomically suitable, capturing potential price upside if western deficits translate into stronger national demand and higher rabi prices.

Short-Term Price Indication (Next 3 Days)

• India FOB Rajkot (dried chickpeas): Sideways to mildly firm around EUR 1.00/kg over the next three days, with sentiment supported by drought headlines from Maharashtra but limited immediate trade drivers.
• India FOB New Delhi (Kabuli, 8–12 mm): Stable to slightly firmer across sizes, with current levels between EUR 0.86/kg and EUR 0.98/kg likely to hold as buyers await clearer signals on rabi sowing conditions.
• Mexico FOB Mexico City (Kabuli 8–12 mm): Steady around EUR 0.86/kg for 8 mm and EUR 1.21/kg for 12 mm, supported by firm demand and the broader global pulse complex, with no major short‑term shocks anticipated.