Chickpeas: Soft Spot Prices but Weather and Low Stocks Put a Floor Under the Market

Chickpea prices in key Indian mandis have eased slightly as dal mills buy hand‑to‑mouth and consumer demand pauses, but adverse weather in major producing states and limited public stocks are already curbing arrivals and should prevent a deeper correction. Imported Australian and Tanzanian chickpeas remain steady, reinforcing a broadly sideways near‑term outlook.

After a brief softening, the chickpea complex is entering a more balanced phase. In Delhi, new‑season Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh origins have slipped only marginally session‑on‑session, while chickpea dal and Kabuli grades also weakened but still trade at a premium. Unseasonal rain and hail in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan during the March–May rabi harvest are slowing fieldwork and could tighten daily arrivals if instability persists, even as official forecasts signal drier conditions after 8–9 April in much of Rajasthan      . Government procurement is ramping up from a low base and central stocks remain well below buffer targets, suggesting limited scope for heavy state selling. Against this backdrop, downside looks contained and any recovery in mill or export demand could quickly translate into firmer prices over the next 2–4 weeks.

📈 Prices & Market Tone

Chickpea spot prices in Indian wholesale markets softened on Tuesday, with Delhi trade reflecting modest day‑on‑day declines rather than a structural downturn. New‑season chickpeas from Rajasthan traded around USD 64.41–64.71 per quintal, down roughly USD 0.29 per quintal from the previous session, while Madhya Pradesh origin moved at about USD 63.82–63.94 per quintal on a similar softening trend.

Jaipur‑line chickpeas were indicated at USD 64.12–64.71 per quintal, and chickpea dal (split) was quoted weaker at USD 74.71–102.94 per quintal. Kabuli chickpeas, the larger cream‑coloured export type, fell more sharply by USD 2.35–3.53 per quintal, settling near USD 76.47–77.65 per quintal for medium quality. At the port, imported Australian chickpeas held steady at USD 580 per tonne in containers and USD 540 per tonne in vessel lots, while Tanzania origin remained firm around USD 565 per tonne (all CFR Nhava Sheva, April–May shipment).

Export‑oriented offers broadly align with this pattern of mild firmness off earlier lows. Recent FOB quotes converted to EUR imply New Delhi Kabuli 42–44 mm trading just under EUR 0.90/kg, with smaller Indian grades in the EUR 0.80–0.85/kg range and Mexican origins maintaining a noticeable premium around EUR 1.18–1.20/kg   . This is consistent with the latest transactional indications, where Indian chickpeas (New Delhi, FCA/FOB) are generally offered between roughly EUR 0.74–0.93/kg, depending on calibre and delivery terms.

Market / Origin	Product	Indicative Level (EUR)	Comment
India, Delhi (mandi)	Desi chickpeas, new crop	≈ 0.59–0.60 EUR/kg	Converted from USD 64.4–64.7/qtl, slightly softer d/d
India, Delhi (mandi)	Kabuli medium	≈ 0.70–0.71 EUR/kg	Down ≈ 3–5% vs prior session
India, New Delhi (FOB)	Dried chickpeas 42–44, 12 mm	≈ 0.88–0.90 EUR/kg	Firm vs mid‑March, modest uptick in offers
Mexico, Mexico City (FOB)	Dried chickpeas 42–44, 12 mm	≈ 1.19–1.21 EUR/kg	Stable to slightly firmer w/w
India, Nhava Sheva (CFR)	Australian chickpeas	≈ 0.53–0.57 EUR/kg	USD 540–580/t, steady

🌍 Supply, Demand & Policy Drivers

Current softness is demand‑led. Dal mills are purchasing only on a need basis and are not building forward stocks, reflecting caution about near‑term margins and price direction. Consumer buying has temporarily slowed, amplifying the impact of this hand‑to‑mouth approach on spot values. Imported chickpea stocks at Indian ports remain comfortable, which further dampens any immediate squeeze in availability.

On the supply side, the rabi harvest in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan is being disrupted by unseasonal rain and hail just as the main March–May cutting window progresses. Market participants report that these conditions are already reducing the pace of arrivals into mandis. Meteorological updates point to renewed thunderstorms, rain and hail across several Rajasthan districts through 6–8 April, with conditions expected to stabilise and turn largely dry from 9 April onward   .

Government policy adds another important layer. Procurement of chickpeas under the Minimum Support Price (MSP) scheme has reached about 100,000 tonnes so far this season, and additional buying is anticipated from Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Yet the central commodity pool holds only around 300,000 tonnes of chickpeas, significantly below a broader 3.5 million tonne buffer stock target for pulses. This combination of low public stocks and ongoing procurement limits the likelihood of aggressive state‑driven selling into the market during the current harvest window.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather Outlook

Fundamentally, the market is torn between weak short‑term demand and weather‑related supply risk. Unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms in key belts of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are occurring late enough in the crop cycle to slow harvesting and arrivals, even if overall yield losses remain uncertain. In Rajasthan, official alerts highlight the risk of gusty winds, moderate to heavy rain and isolated hail through 8 April in divisions including Jodhpur, Bikaner, Ajmer and Jaipur, before a drying trend from 9 April    .

Looking beyond the immediate harvest, early monsoon outlooks for 2026 suggest an elevated risk of below‑normal rainfall linked to emerging El Niño conditions, particularly in northwest and central India    . While this does not yet alter the near‑term chickpea balance, it heightens medium‑term uncertainty for pulse production and could underpin risk premiums later in the year if forecasts are confirmed. For now, however, the key watchpoints remain day‑to‑day arrivals, mill buying patterns and the scale of incremental government procurement.

📆 Short‑Term Outlook (2–4 Weeks)

The near‑term outlook for chickpeas is cautiously steady. With harvest‑related supply disruptions in major producing states, a meaningful further price decline from current levels looks unlikely. The combination of constrained arrivals, low government stocks and stable to firm import values at ports effectively provides a floor, even as mills remain cautious.

Conversely, any sustained improvement in dal mill appetite or a pick‑up in export enquiries, particularly for medium‑grade Kabuli, could trigger a modest recovery. As weather conditions in Rajasthan normalise after 9 April and harvesting resumes, arrivals could temporarily increase, but this is likely to be offset by steady procurement and baseline consumption. Price action is therefore expected to remain range‑bound with a mild upside bias if demand normalises.

💡 Trading & Procurement Strategy

• Dal mills / processors (India): Maintaining hand‑to‑mouth coverage still makes sense for immediate needs, but consider gradually extending coverage on any dips, especially for Kabuli grades, given supportive fundamentals and low public stocks.
• Importers & traders (EU / MENA): With Indian FOB Kabuli near EUR 0.88–0.90/kg and Mexican product holding a premium, nearby buying for Q2/Q3 consumption looks reasonable. Stagger purchases to hedge against potential weather‑ or policy‑driven spikes.
• Producers (India): In regions affected by recent hail and rain, avoid distress selling during localised gluts once weather clears. Take advantage of MSP procurement where market prices are weak and monitor further government buying announcements.
• End‑users & food manufacturers: Use the current soft patch to secure a share of forward needs, but avoid full front‑loading given still‑uncertain demand trends and potential monsoon risk later in 2026.

📍 3‑Day Indicative Directional Outlook

• India, Delhi mandis (desi & Kabuli): Largely steady with a slight firming bias as weather disruptions keep arrivals patchy and mills cautiously resume buying.
• India, FOB New Delhi Kabuli 42–44 mm: Stable to marginally higher in EUR terms, supported by steady export interest and unchanged CFR values for competing origins.
• Mexico, FOB chickpeas 42–44 mm: Stable at a premium to Indian values; no major supply shocks expected in the very short term.