China Buying Spree Lifts Soybeans While South American Flows Stay Heavy

China’s renewed buying of US soybeans and firm crush margins are lending CBOT futures moderate upside, but abundant South American supplies and only average US demand keep rallies contained. The soybean complex is edging higher, supported by fresh Chinese demand and resilient new-crop export commitments, even as old-crop US sales slow seasonally. Nearby CBOT soybeans, oil and meal are all trading modestly in the green, while Dalian futures in China also push higher, signaling improved import appetite. At the same time, Brazilian exports remain large and are set to stay historically high into August, limiting global tightness. Physical price offers in key origins such as China, India, Ukraine and the US have softened slightly in recent weeks, helping demand but capping futures. Weather in major producing regions is currently not extreme enough to trigger a pronounced risk premium.

Prices

CBOT soybean futures are modestly firmer across the forward curve. The November 2026 contract last trades around 1,185 USc/bu, up about 7 cents or 0.6% on the day, with a gentle contango toward July 2027 near 1,218 USc/bu. Nearby August and September 2026 are just below new-crop, indicating comfortable short-term supply but improving demand.

Soyoil futures are slightly higher from the front months into mid-2027, with September 2026 near 68.0 USc/lb, up 0.4% on the day, while deferred contracts gradually ease lower toward 61–62 USc/lb by late 2028. Soymeal is also firmer in the nearby strip: September 2026 trades around 313 USD/short ton, with a steady upward slope to mid‑2027 near 329 USD/short ton, reflecting a still-attractive crush margin.

Translating into indicative EUR levels (using approximate FX of 1 EUR = 1.10 USD): CBOT November 2026 soybeans are around 390–395 EUR/t, soymeal roughly 290–295 EUR/t, and soyoil about 1,360–1,380 EUR/t. Physical FOB soybean offers mirror the soft yet stabilizing tone: Chinese yellow soybeans (non-organic) are around 0.76 EUR/kg FOB Beijing, US No.2 FOB around 0.63 EUR/kg, and Ukrainian FOB Odesa about 0.37 EUR/kg, all slightly below recent weeks but now showing signs of consolidation.

Supply & Demand

Short-term demand sentiment has improved on the back of fresh Chinese buying. Market sources indicate Sinograin has purchased around 10–15 cargoes of US soybeans, with at least 10 loads for October–November shipment, while the USDA confirms a private sale of 122,000 tonnes to China for the 2026/27 season. This activity signals that China is actively locking in new-crop US supply.

US weekly export sales to July 30 show a seasonal split: old-crop 2025/26 soybean sales hit a marketing-year low of 32,157 tonnes as the season nears its August 31 end, but new-crop 2026/27 bookings reached 903,920 tonnes. Although this is a four-week low and at the lower end of expectations, total 2026/27 commitments stand at 8.37 million tonnes, a four-year high and 134% above last year, underpinned by large purchases from unknown destinations (497,500 t) and China (330,000 t).

By-products show steady but not spectacular demand: current-marketing-year soymeal sales total 101,400 tonnes with 146,700 tonnes for the new year, both somewhat below broad market hopes. Soyoil sales are modest at 3,900 tonnes but nevertheless within a range that included the risk of net cancellations, so they are marginally constructive for crush and oil balances.

South American supply remains ample. Brazil exported about 13.4 million tonnes of soybeans in July, up 9.3% year-on-year, while export association estimates for August point to roughly 9.74 million tonnes, around 1.6 million tonnes below last year but still historically high. This continued flow keeps the Atlantic and Asian markets well supplied, moderating the impact of stronger US forward sales on global price levels.

Regional Market & Fundamentals

In China, Dalian No.1 soybean futures have risen by about 0.5–0.7% across the front months, with September 2026 around 4,740 CNY/t and November 2026 near 4,774 CNY/t. The firming domestic futures, combined with slightly lower FOB offers in Beijing, suggest improving import and crushing margins, especially following Sinograin’s buying round.

In the US, the soybean futures curve from August 2026 to mid‑2027 is upward sloping by roughly 50–60 USc/bu, consistent with adequate nearby supply but expectations of tighter balances or higher risk after harvest. Soymeal’s stronger carry relative to beans highlights robust demand from the feed sector, while soyoil’s gentle backwardation toward 2028 reflects expectations of gradually easing vegoil tightness as global production grows.

Black Sea supply contributes to the overall comfortable picture: Ukrainian soybeans offer a steep discount versus US and Chinese origins at about 0.37–0.39 EUR/kg, even as prices have ticked slightly higher in late July. This price gap keeps Europe and some Mediterranean buyers leaning toward Ukrainian and Brazilian supply where logistics allow, constraining the upside for US Gulf premiums.

Weather & Crop Outlook

The key weather focus remains the US Midwest and South America’s upcoming planting window. For the coming days, US Midwest conditions are generally seasonal with pockets of thunderstorms and no widespread extreme heat signal strong enough to materially threaten pod filling. This reduces the immediate need for a weather premium in CBOT futures.

In Brazil and Argentina, the current period is largely post-harvest and pre-planting for soybeans, so short-term weather has limited direct impact on production. However, early signals around the upcoming planting season will become increasingly important in the next 4–6 weeks, particularly if forecasts hint at renewed La Niña-type dryness in southern Brazil or Argentina.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)

• Flat price: With new Chinese demand and strong forward US commitments but heavy Brazilian exports, soybeans likely trade in a moderate range, with a mildly bullish bias unless US weather turns clearly benign or Brazil’s August exports exceed expectations.
• Spreads: The gentle contango in CBOT suggests limited nearby tightness. Short nearby/long new-crop spread positions could benefit if additional Chinese buying concentrates in later shipment months.
• Crush margins: Firmer soymeal and stable soyoil continue to support attractive crush returns. Processors may lock in margins on dips in beans while maintaining sales coverage in meal and oil.
• Physical procurement: Importers, especially in Europe and Asia, can use current Ukrainian and Brazilian discounts to diversify origin and hedge against potential US weather or logistics shocks later in the season.

3-Day Directional Outlook (EUR-based)

• CBOT Soybeans (EUR-equivalent): Slightly firmer to sideways; support from Chinese buying, resistance from Brazilian supply.
• CBOT Soymeal (EUR-equivalent): Mild upside bias on continued feed demand and solid crush margins.
• CBOT Soyoil (EUR-equivalent): Sideways to slightly higher, tracking broader vegoil and energy markets but capped by ample global oilseed supply.