China Drives a Sharp Rebound in Australian Almond Shipments

Australian almond demand has rebounded sharply at the start of the new selling season, led by China and broader Asia-Pacific markets, easing early concerns after a slow first month. With April shipment volumes surpassing last year’s record by 11% and export demand up double digits, the near-term price environment looks better supported despite regional imbalances and currency uncertainty. After a hesitant start to the season, April’s performance significantly narrowed the year-on-year shipment gap and confirmed that demand momentum is re‑establishing, particularly in China and key Asia-Pacific buyers. At the same time, sharply weaker Middle East offtake is being absorbed by stronger flows into Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and New Zealand, while in-shell volumes held up well despite difficult harvest conditions. Against this backdrop, indicative kernel prices in Europe and the US in mid‑June appear broadly steady in EUR terms, suggesting a market that is firming but not yet overheating.

Prices

Spot almond kernel offers in mid-June remain broadly stable, with a slight firming bias in some European-origin grades. Converted at an indicative 1.07 USD/EUR, recent offers imply:

US-origin kernel values in EUR have moved sideways since late May, while select Spanish Valencia grades show modest gains, reflecting steady European demand and limited immediate supply pressure. Current price stability is consistent with improving shipment data rather than a sudden supply shock.

Supply & Demand

Australian almond shipments in April were 11% above last season’s record for the same month, sharply reducing the early-season lag: cumulative shipments for the first two months now sit only 2.9% below last year’s level. Exports rose 13% year-on-year in April, while domestic sales increased 4% versus 2025, underlining broad-based demand strength.

China is the clear engine of growth. Shipments to China jumped 42% in April alone and are up 33% over the first two months of the season, confirming the country’s dominant role in absorbing new-crop Australian supply. The wider Asia-Pacific region is also performing strongly, with Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and New Zealand all recording higher shipments than last season.

By contrast, shipments to the Middle East have fallen sharply, down around 85% compared with last year. Importantly, this loss has been largely offset by higher Asia-Pacific buying, preventing a build-up of unsold Australian stock and supporting a more balanced global trade flow.

Product Mix, Logistics & Currency

Despite challenging harvest conditions, in-shell almond shipments have been resilient, increasing 30% year-on-year in April. This suggests robust demand for in-shell product in key markets and indicates that quality and sizing have remained adequate despite weather-related pressure during harvest.

The Australian industry remains highly sensitive to AUD/USD movements, as export contracts are predominantly priced in US dollars while many growers’ costs are domestic. A firmer Australian dollar would compress grower margins unless offset by higher US-dollar prices, while any renewed AUD softness would immediately enhance export competitiveness into China and other price-sensitive Asian destinations.

Weather & External Context

Weather during the most recent Australian harvest was described as difficult, but the strong in-shell shipment performance implies no widespread, severe quality downgrade. Looking ahead, global climatic risks remain elevated with a developing strong El Niño pattern expected to raise odds of heat and rainfall anomalies in the coming months, which could affect competing nut origins and future crop expectations.

In California, the leading global producer, recent conditions into June have featured early-season warmth and intermittent moisture events, but without clear evidence (over the last few days) of a new, acute weather shock to orchards. As a result, short-term supply expectations from the Northern Hemisphere have not materially shifted in the past week, leaving current Australian-driven demand dynamics as the main near-term market focus.

Fundamentals & Market Balance

April’s rebound shows that underlying demand for Australian almonds remains solid after the temporary soft patch at the start of the season. With exports growing faster than domestic sales, the international market is doing the heavy lifting in correcting the early shipment deficit.

The sharp regional divergence—strong China and Asia-Pacific versus weak Middle East—creates some route and customer concentration risk, but overall balances are tightening modestly rather than loosening. Combined with stable to slightly firmer spot prices in EUR, fundamentals currently point to a gradually improving grower and exporter revenue outlook, conditional on currency trends.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Months)

• Sellers (growers/exporters): Use current demand from China and Asia-Pacific to actively cover forward positions for the next quarter, particularly for in-shell and standard kernel grades, while retaining some volume for potential price appreciation if AUD weakens.
• Buyers (roasters, traders, food industry): Consider locking in medium-term requirements at current EUR levels, which reflect improving but not yet tight fundamentals; prioritise diversification between Australian, US and Spanish origins to hedge regional weather and currency risk.
• Risk focus: Monitor AUD/USD closely, along with any sudden weather developments in California and Spain that could tighten global supply and trigger a sharper price response.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• US kernels, standard grades (Carmel SSR, Nonpareil), FAS/FOB: Bias: Sideways to mildly firmer in EUR, supported by strong Australian shipment data but no fresh supply shock.
• Spanish kernels (Guara, Valencia, Marcona), FOB: Bias: Sideways to slightly firmer as recent small upward adjustments consolidate amid steady EU demand.
• Australian in-shell (export reference): Bias: Firm, underpinned by 30% year-on-year shipment growth and strong Asia-Pacific pull, though most impact is already embedded in current trade levels.