Almond Prices Steady as Heatwaves Test California and Spain Crops

Almond kernel prices in both Spain and the US are broadly steady week‑on‑week, with only marginal moves and a narrow premium for Spanish Marcona and Valencia types over US Carmel. Weather risks are building on both sides of the Atlantic as heat intensifies in Spain and inland California, but so far there is no clear supply shock priced into physical offers. The almond market is entering the critical mid‑summer weather window with comfortable inventories and a slightly lower new‑crop forecast for California. Recent position data point to solid but not explosive export demand, while buyers remain well covered into the new crop and are resisting higher offers. In Spain, prolonged hot, dry conditions heighten concerns around kernel sizing and yields in unirrigated groves, but strong irrigation in key areas is limiting immediate damage. For now, spot prices in Madrid and US export hubs are consolidating in tight ranges as market participants watch July–August weather and forward sales closely.

Prices

All prices below are approximate EUR-equivalent per kg based on recent FX and should be read as indicative.

The price structure continues to show a clear premium for specialty Spanish Marcona and large Valencia kernels versus standard US California types. Organic Nonpareil holds a substantial premium over conventional in both origins, reflecting tight supply and stable retail demand.

Supply & Demand Drivers

The latest California almond subjective forecast from NASS pegs 2026 production at around 2.70 billion lbs (shelled), slightly below the previous season and reinforcing a broadly balanced global supply picture rather than a surplus scenario. Monthly position reports from the Almond Board show 2025/26 crop‑year shipments tracking only modestly below last year, implying a carry‑out near the mid‑500 million lb range and no imminent stock squeeze.

On demand, recent market commentary highlights steady offtake from Europe and strong interest from Mediterranean importers, with Turkey increasingly acting as a hub for Middle Eastern and North African flows amid ongoing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Buyers in key EU markets appear well covered into early new‑crop shipments, capping near‑term upside despite generally constructive longer‑term fundamentals.

Weather & Crop Conditions (ES, US)

Spain is currently under its second major heat episode of summer 2026, with AEMET and regional media flagging maxima above 40–42°C in parts of the southwest and inland valleys between 5–7 July and a continued very high fire‑risk environment into early July. Such persistent heat during kernel filling increases stress on non‑irrigated almond orchards, especially in interior Andalusia and parts of Castilla‑La Mancha and Valencia, raising the risk of smaller kernel sizes and some yield losses if high temperatures persist without relief.

In California, inland areas are facing renewed heat advisories with inland highs in the low 30s to near 40°C (90–103°F) expected this week, adding to a season marked by early and repeated heat spikes. Almonds are particularly vulnerable to sustained summer heat and water stress, especially on marginal water districts and lighter soils. However, as of mid‑July, most reports still point to generally adequate irrigation for commercial orchards, and there are no confirmed large‑scale production downgrades beyond the small reduction already captured in official forecasts.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

Weather‑based indices tracking California almond growing conditions show broadly average to slightly positive conditions into mid‑June, suggesting that, despite heat episodes, the overall season has not yet turned decisively adverse. Combined with the modestly lower crop forecast and still‑comfortable carry‑in, fundamentals lean mildly supportive for prices over a multi‑month horizon rather than pointing to a sharp correction.

Commercial sentiment remains cautious: processors and handlers are reluctant to cut offers further in the face of rising input and water costs, while European and Mediterranean buyers remain price‑sensitive, using existing cover to negotiate narrow trading ranges. Recent June market commentary still emphasizes the importance of buyer coverage decisions and the pace of forward sales into new crop, rather than any dramatic shift in supply.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)

• Flat‑to‑firmer bias: With prices stable week‑on‑week and no major surplus looming, the near‑term bias is modestly firmer, especially for premium Spanish Marcona and organic Nonpareil, if current heat in Spain persists.
• Buyers: End‑users with coverage only into late Q3 may consider layering small additional volumes on any minor dips, prioritizing Spanish specialties and US Nonpareil, while avoiding aggressive chasing in standard US Carmel which remains well supplied.
• Sellers: US exporters and Spanish packers can justify holding offers at current levels, but may need selective concessions on large tenders, particularly into price‑sensitive North African and South Asian destinations.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (Spot, EUR)

• Spain (FOB Madrid, Marcona/Valencia): Stable to slightly firmer over the next 3 days, with heat‑related crop concerns providing mild support but no clear breakout signal yet.
• US (FAS/FOB California ports, Carmel/Nonpareil): Largely stable in EUR terms; modest firming is possible if heat intensifies and FX remains broadly steady, but export competition keeps offers in a tight band.