Almond Prices Ease in Spain and US as Weather Stays Supportive

Almond kernel prices in Spain and the US softened slightly into 2 July 2026, with both Spanish Marcona/Valencia and Californian Nonpareil/Carmel grades edging down week-on-week in EUR terms. Supply conditions remain broadly comfortable thanks to a benign water situation in California and a positive Mediterranean crop outlook, keeping nearby FOB/FAS offers under moderate pressure. Spanish farm and export indications confirm Spain’s role as a firm-priced premium origin, but recent moves point to mild consolidation rather than a structural turn. Global demand growth is still led by EU snack and bakery use, though high consumer prices and softer nut imports in Q1 2026 temper upside. Near term, stable weather in key growing regions and adequate international stocks argue for a sideways-to-slightly-softer price bias over the next few days.

Prices

Current kernel prices (FOB/FAS, converted approximately at 1 USD = 0.92 EUR) as of 2 July 2026:

Spanish wholesale almond prices reported around 2.61 EUR/kg for standard grades in France’s Rungis market at end-June highlight the premium for selected Marcona and Valencia kernels, which are trading well above generic bulk references. Spain’s average export unit values, near 6.77 EUR/kg in 2025 and rising year-on-year, also confirm firm pricing on processed, higher-value product lines.

Supply & Demand

Globally, supply remains concentrated in California, Spain and Australia, with California still dominating exportable kernel volumes. California’s 2026 crop outlook is described as generally favourable following improved water availability since 2023 and a run of wetter winters that have largely removed formal drought conditions from the state. This supports ample US export potential for the 2026/27 season, keeping a lid on aggressive price rallies.

Spain strengthens its role as both a major producer and the world’s second-largest almond exporter, with exports in 2024 up more than 24% year-on-year and representing about 12% of global trade. Domestic consumption in Spain and wider EU snack and bakery sectors remains structurally high, but EU nut import data show spending softening in Q1 2026, pointing to more cautious buying at elevated price levels. This combination of strong medium-term demand and near-term demand rationing explains the current gentle easing in spot offers.

Weather & Crop Conditions (ES, US)

Spain (ES): Recent weather reports into mid-June describe a return to typical hot summer conditions with July-like temperatures, especially in central and southern Spain. Earlier in the season, localized excessive moisture was noted but overall cereal and tree crops, including almonds, were assessed with a broadly positive outlook in Spain. For early July, no acute frost or heat-shock threats are flagged in key producing regions such as Andalusia, Aragon and Catalonia, implying neutral-to-slightly-supportive yield prospects.

United States (US, California): In California, recent commentary emphasizes that the state has been largely free from drought for several years following strong snowpack and rainfall. Water availability for orchards is therefore better than during the severe drought years earlier in the decade, while ongoing research into more efficient irrigation is helping manage overall water use. No immediate weather shock is visible for early July that would materially alter the 2026 crop trajectory at this point.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Inventory & crop expectations: Global almond inventories tightened through mid-2024, allowing prices to rebound from multi-year lows. Now, with a decent 2026 Californian crop and solid Spanish output, supply looks adequate, taking some momentum out of the bullish narrative.
• Trade flows: International trade remains focused on supplying EU, India and China with kernel and in-shell product. Strong demand from these markets continues, but higher prices and economic uncertainty mean buyers are more selective, favouring competitive origins and grades.
• EU policy backdrop: The EU’s 25% retaliatory duty on US almonds, in force since December 2025, continues to support relative pricing for Spanish and other non-US origins in Europe, even as buyers hunt for value.
• Consumer demand: EU consumers, led by Spain, remain key almond users with per-capita consumption around 4.6 kg/year, but value-oriented shifts are visible in retail and foodservice channels, encouraging use of more standard grades where possible.

Short-Term Trading Outlook

• Buyers (roasters, confectionery, snack manufacturers): Use the current small dip in Spanish Marcona/Valencia and US Nonpareil/Carmel offers to extend cover modestly into Q3, prioritising flexible shipment windows while weather risk is low.
• Sellers (growers, cooperatives): Avoid aggressive undercutting on premium Marcona and organic Nonpareil; maintain offer discipline as structural EU demand and supportive trade policies still underpin these segments.
• Traders: Focus on arbitrage between high-value Spanish kernels and more competitively priced US kernels into non-EU destinations, where US product is not burdened by EU-level duties.

3-Day Price Direction (ES, US)

• Spain FOB (Marcona, Valencia, Guara): Sideways to slightly softer over the next three days, with stable weather and comfortable supply encouraging cautious buying behaviour.
• US FOB/FAS (Nonpareil, Carmel): Mild downward bias as export competition stays strong and no immediate weather or policy shocks are present.