Zero-Duty Breakthrough Puts California Almonds in the EU Fast Lane

California almond prices are easing slightly even as exporters gain a major competitive boost in Europe from a new zero-duty tariff rate quota valid through 2029. The removal of tariff uncertainty and lower landed costs into the EU should underpin steady export demand for U.S. almonds, particularly from food manufacturers and retailers, and support a more constructive medium-term price environment. The market enters July with firmer fundamentals than in recent seasons: California inventories have tightened, EU demand remains robust, and trade tensions have de-escalated. At the same time, nearby kernel prices in both the U.S. and Spain show a mild downward correction over the last weeks, reflecting comfortable short-term availability and cautious buyer behavior. Weather risks in California’s growing regions are currently limited to typical hot, dry summer conditions, keeping focus squarely on trade flows and pricing into the EU for the coming months.

Prices

Spot offers indicate a modest softening of almond kernel prices into early July. U.S. Nonpareil 27/30 organic kernels (FOB, Washington D.C.) eased from about EUR 9.22/kg in early June to roughly EUR 9.15/kg by 2 July. Standard U.S. Carmel SSR 20/22 and 18/20 (FAS) similarly slipped by around EUR 0.05/kg over the same period, to about EUR 6.50–6.55/kg.

In Spain, key Marcona, Valencia and Guara types (FOB, Madrid) also show small week‑on‑week declines of roughly EUR 0.03–0.08/kg across grades, leaving most conventional kernels in a broad EUR 5.40–8.70/kg range, with Spanish organic Nonpareil quoted near EUR 11.30/kg. Wholesale benchmark data for Europe confirm that almond prices, while above last year’s lows, remain moderate and broadly stable on a monthly basis.

Supply & Demand

The newly agreed EU‑U.S. trade arrangement introduces a dedicated zero‑duty tariff rate quota for U.S. almond imports into the EU, effective until the end of 2029. Eligible California shipments can now enter the bloc without import duties as long as the quota remains unfilled, sharply improving access conditions compared with the previous standard tariff framework that only offered limited reduced‑duty quotas.

This agreement removes the risk of a previously floated 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. almonds and other products, which had created notable uncertainty earlier in the year. With that threat neutralized, EU buyers can plan forward purchases with greater confidence, and California exporters can compete more aggressively against alternative origins in what is one of the world’s largest premium food markets.

On the supply side, recent crop assessments point to a California 2026 harvest broadly in line with or slightly below last year’s 2.7 billion pounds, amid tighter carry‑in inventories and steady global demand. Spain, the second‑largest exporter, also remains a key EU supplier, but its role will increasingly balance against more cost‑competitive, tariff‑free U.S. volumes.

Fundamentals & Weather

Industry position data show export shipments running modestly ahead of last season, helping to draw down stocks and underpin prices compared with the oversupplied years of 2022–2024. Strong demand from confectionery, plant‑based dairy and snacking segments in Europe continues to absorb premium grades, while budget‑conscious consumers focus on competitively priced conventional kernels.

Weather conditions in California’s almond belt are currently characterized by typical hot inland temperatures and marine fog along the coast, with no immediate widespread threats flagged for July. With bloom and nut set largely behind the market, remaining seasonal risk centers on irrigation costs and localized heat stress rather than major yield shocks.

Trading Outlook

• For EU buyers: Use the window of zero‑duty access and still‑moderate prices to extend coverage into Q4 2026, particularly for high‑quality Nonpareil and Carmel, while monitoring quota fill rates.
• For California shippers: Prioritize EU contracts where tariff‑free status can be confirmed, sharpening offers versus domestic and non‑EU destinations to capture incremental demand.
• For Spanish processors: Consider defensive pricing on premium Marcona and Valencia grades as U.S. almonds gain cost advantage; differentiate through origin and quality claims.
• For speculative participants: With fundamentals firmer but near‑term prices slightly softer, a cautiously bullish stance is warranted, with attention to any quota‑related demand surges or adverse California weather surprises.

3-Day Regional Price Indication

• US export (FOB/FAS): Sideways to mildly firm; Nonpareil 27/30 likely to hold around EUR 9.1–9.3/kg, Carmel SSR near EUR 6.4–6.6/kg.
• Spain (FOB Madrid): Slight downward bias but largely stable; most conventional kernels expected to trade within EUR 5.4–7.3/kg, premiums for Marcona and organic Nonpareil maintained.
• EU wholesale hubs: Stable to slightly firmer as buyers adjust to zero‑duty U.S. supply; any strong demand uptick will first show in main hubs such as France and Germany.