Almonds: Australian Export Surge Masks Weather Risks for 2027 Crop

Australian almonds posted a record export month in April 2026 despite a weather‑disrupted harvest, underscoring robust demand from China and Europe but leaving questions over crop quality and 2027 yield potential. The global almond market currently balances strong export momentum out of Australia with largely stable kernel prices from the US and Spain in EUR terms. Heavy rains stretched the Australian harvest to nearly 12 weeks, delaying drying and compressing early‑season shipments, yet April exports rebounded sharply and signalled firm buying interest, particularly from China. At the same time, flat indicative prices for US Carmel and Nonpareil and Spanish Marcona and Valencia suggest that end users still find ample alternatives if Australian supply tightens, but are watching quality and next‑crop risks closely.

Prices

Recent indicative export offers converted into EUR show a broadly stable almond price environment. US almond kernels (Carmel SSR 18/20 and 20/22, FAS Washington) are roughly in the mid‑EUR 6/kg range, while organic Nonpareil 27/30 is around the mid‑EUR 8/kg range. Spanish Marcona and Valencia types (FOB Madrid) mostly trade between about EUR 5.5–8.5/kg, with premium organic Nonpareil above EUR 10/kg. Month‑on‑month, price changes are minimal, indicating that the market is absorbing Australian harvest disruptions without a pronounced risk premium so far.

Supply & Demand

Australia’s April 2026 almond exports reached 9,103 tonnes (in‑shell and kernel), up 13% year‑on‑year, with domestic shipments at 2,040 tonnes, the second‑best month on record. Total April movement of 11,143 tonnes rose 11% versus last year, confirming that once weather bottlenecks eased, the pipeline moved quickly. However, combined March–April shipments were still 3% lower at 16,970 tonnes, with exports down 5%, reflecting how prolonged harvest disruptions front‑loaded delays into the season.

China remains the clear growth engine, taking 4,918 tonnes in April—up 42% and accounting for nearly 54% of Australian exports. Vietnam and Germany also expanded purchases, suggesting broader diversification into Southeast Asia and Europe. By contrast, shipments to India fell 38%, indicating some price sensitivity or competition from US origin. Overall, this pattern supports a firm demand base but with shifting regional dynamics that could influence premiums between origins and qualities.

Fundamentals & Weather

The 2026 Australian harvest was unusually difficult, stretching from the typical seven weeks to nearly twelve due to repeated rainfall. Heavy precipitation caused waterlogging in some orchards, tree damage and elevated disease pressure. While April shipment strength confirms that a large portion of the crop is now moving, these agronomic stresses raise downside risks for both final 2026 quality and the 2027 yield potential, especially for orchards with persistent soil saturation or structural damage.

In the near term, the key fundamental question is the share of the crop that grades into top kernel categories versus lower‑value industrial uses. If quality downgrades are significant, the market could see tighter availability of premium, high‑count kernels, supporting differentials for Nonpareil‑type and high‑spec product, even if headline tonnage remains adequate. At the same time, stable Spanish and US offer levels suggest that global buyers still have room to switch origins if Australian premiums widen excessively.

Outlook & Trading Strategy

With April exports proving that logistics can catch up once weather improves, attention now shifts to how quickly the remaining Australian crop can be dried, processed and shipped, and whether quality issues emerge more clearly in contracts over the coming months. Demand from China is expected to stay strong, but India’s reduced offtake underscores the importance of price competitiveness versus US and Spanish supply.

• Buyers (roasters, confectionery, retailers): Use the current period of price stability in EUR to extend coverage modestly into Q4 2026, especially for premium Nonpareil and Marcona types that could tighten if Australian quality disappoints.
• Importers and traders: Maintain a diversified origin book between Australia, US and Spain to hedge against regional weather and quality shocks; watch Chinese buying pace as a key barometer for potential upside moves.
• Producers and shellers: Where possible, prioritize rapid drying and segregation of higher‑quality lots to capture premiums, and consider forward sales for top grades while the market still prices in relatively benign risk.

3‑Day Market Indication (EUR)

• US kernels (Carmel SSR, Nonpareil, export basis): Sideways to mildly firm around EUR 6–6.5/kg for standard and around EUR 8.5–9/kg for organic Nonpareil, as buyers test appetite for new‑crop Australian offers.
• Spanish kernels (Marcona, Valencia, Guara): Stable to slightly firm near current levels (roughly EUR 5.5–8.5/kg), supported by consistent European demand and limited pressure to discount.
• Australian origin (reference to global EUR levels): Firmer tone expected for high‑quality kernels relative to bulk standards over the next few days, reflecting lingering concerns over harvest‑related quality variation.