Almond Prices Steady as Heat Builds in Spain and California

Almond kernel prices in Spain and the US are holding broadly steady in mid‑July, with only marginal week‑on‑week moves and no clear directional breakout. Firm European demand and a slightly smaller forecast US crop are supporting values, while export headwinds to India and stable stocks are limiting upside. In Spain, FOB Madrid prices for mainstream Guara and Valencia kernels remain range‑bound, even as a new heat episode settles over key producing regions such as Extremadura and Andalusia. Recent forecasts show clear skies and temperatures in the mid‑30s °C, conditions that are broadly favourable for nut fill where irrigation is available, but raise moisture‑cost and pest‑pressure risks if the heat persists. In California, weather is comparatively benign this weekend, with a warm but not extreme outlook in the Central Valley and Northern California, while some Southern California areas face heat advisories. Against this background, international prices appear to be consolidating near recent highs after a firm June, with buyers in Europe still active but more price‑sensitive in Asia.

Prices

Using an indicative rate of 1 USD = 0.90 EUR, current benchmark kernel offers translate into the following levels:

Price action over the past month shows a gradual firming from late June, followed by a period of sideways trading in July, consistent with external reports that almond prices rose steadily in June on tighter supply but are now capped by weaker export momentum and higher costs. Organic and premium Spanish Marcona still command a distinct premium over standard Californian Carmel SSR, reinforcing the role of Spain as a price floor for higher‑end product into the EU.

Supply & Demand

The US remains the dominant global supplier, with California 2026 production forecast only slightly below the prior year at 2.70 billion lbs shelled, implying no dramatic tightening in overall availability. Industry analysis from a major US lender points to solid global demand and tightening stocks through June, but also highlights softer late‑June buying from India as higher prices, adequate inventories and delayed monsoon rains encouraged importers to pause. This has shifted the short‑term demand centre of gravity back towards Europe and the Middle East.

Within Europe, almonds remain a key component of the wider nuts and dried‑fruit segment, with the EU monitoring price inflation closely. Stable Spanish kernel prices, particularly for Marcona, suggest domestic handlers are reluctant to discount ahead of new‑crop clarity, effectively supporting international values despite export headwinds from California.

Weather Outlook – ES & US

Spain (ES): Forecasts for July 17–19 indicate predominantly clear skies and hot conditions in major producing interiors such as Extremadura, with daytime maxima around the mid‑30s °C and little or no rainfall. This pattern is broadly favourable for kernel development where irrigation is assured, but sustained heat raises irrigation costs and can increase pest and disease pressure later in the season.

United States (US – California): Weather services point to a warm but seasonally normal weekend in Northern and Central California, while parts of Southern California face heat advisories with temperatures 10–17°F above normal. For the main almond belt in the Central Valley, no acute weather shock is indicated over the next few days, though ongoing heat episodes this summer keep water management and potential navel orangeworm pressure on the risk radar.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Crop size: The slightly smaller 2026 California crop forecast versus last year suggests only a modest tightening in global fundamentals, insufficient on its own to trigger a strong bull market.
• Exports: Latest industry commentary notes that June export flows were solid overall but eased into late June, with India in particular reducing purchases on price resistance and monsoon uncertainties.
• Costs and logistics: Rising production and logistics costs, including energy‑related inflation in Europe, are eroding margins and limiting producers’ willingness to discount, effectively putting a soft floor under kernel prices.
• European demand: Europe remains a stable demand anchor for US and Spanish almonds, even as consumers face higher food and energy prices.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

Trading recommendations (short‑term)

• Buyers (EU roasters, industry): Use current sideways price action to cover nearby needs, especially in premium Marcona and organic grades, where Spanish offers signal a solid floor.
• Importers in price‑sensitive markets (e.g. India, MENA): Consider a staggered buying strategy; absent a weather or crop shock, current fundamentals argue for stable rather than sharply higher prices in the very short term.
• Producers/handlers (ES & US): Maintain price discipline but be prepared for selective, small discounts on larger lots if export demand does not re‑accelerate into August.

3‑day directional price indication (EUR, qualitative)

• Spain – FOB Madrid kernels (Guara, Valencia, Marcona): Stable to slightly firm over the next 3 days, supported by hot, dry weather and firm local demand.
• US – FAS/FOB Californian kernels (Carmel, Nonpareil, EU destination): Largely stable; mild upward bias if European buying interest improves, but capped by softer demand from India.
• Organic segments (ES & US): Stable with a firm tone, reflecting tight availability and resilient niche demand.