U.S. Almond Shipments Surge 14% in June, Tightening Expected Carryout and Firming Prices

U.S. almond shipments rose sharply in June as California handlers moved a record volume into export channels, easing concerns about heavy stocks and putting a mildly bullish floor under prices into the 2026/27 crop transition.

The latest position data point to improving balance between supply and demand, with carryout expectations now drifting toward 500 million pounds or below, encouraging sellers to test higher offers while managing grower selling pressure through harvest.

Headline

U.S. Almond Shipments Surge 14% in June, Tightening Expected Carryout and Firming Prices

Introduction

On July 9, the Almond Board of California released its June position report showing U.S. almond shipments of 213.0 million pounds, up 14.1% from 186.7 million pounds a year earlier and above pre-report market estimates around 205 million pounds. The result extends a multi-month trend of stronger-than-expected movement late in the crop year.

Season-to-date shipments (August–June) reached 2.426 billion pounds, now just 1.0% below the prior year, compared with a 2.2% deficit through May. With receipts tracking slightly below the working 2.7 billion-pound crop estimate and the industry’s sold position nearing 90% of total supply, trade participants are reassessing earlier projections of a burdensome carryout above 600 million pounds.

Immediate Market Impact

The June surge was driven by exports, which climbed 20.6% year-on-year to 163.2 million pounds, while domestic shipments fell 3.1% to 49.7 million pounds. Exports now account for 78% of total shipments so far this season, above both the Almond Board’s 75% forecast and the three-year average of 73%.

For U.S.-origin product, this strengthening export pull is tightening forward availability into early 2026/27 and supporting a steady-to-firm price tone. Market commentary following the report characterizes June as the strongest shipment month of the season, with growing expectations that carryout could land closer to 500 million pounds or below rather than above 600 million pounds previously feared.

Current FAS/FOB indications for U.S. almond kernels in Washington, D.C. are broadly stable, with non-organic Carmel SSR 20/22 and 18/20 around $6.50–6.55/lb and organic Nonpareil 27/30 near $9.15/lb as of July 10, unchanged from recent prints. This confirms that the report is reinforcing an already firmer base rather than triggering a sharp repricing.

Supply Chain Disruptions

The shipment beat suggests that U.S. logistics, port operations and container availability were sufficient to support elevated export flows in June, despite continued pressure on global freight and inland transport costs. Export activity was particularly robust into Europe and the Middle East, while India and China/Hong Kong showed more mixed trends.

Season-to-date, India has taken 344.1 million pounds (down 9%), Europe 629.5 million pounds (up 6%) and the Middle East 331.2 million pounds (up 2%), while China/Hong Kong are down 35% at 32.4 million pounds. For U.S. shippers, this means continued reliance on Atlantic and Suez-linked routes and ongoing adaptation to weaker North Asia demand.

From a U.S. supply-chain perspective, handlers appear to be prioritizing export commitments and managing domestic programs more cautiously, with U.S. domestic shipments down 12.7% for the season. This could tighten spot availability for U.S. industrial and retail buyers later in the year if export momentum persists and growers delay new-crop sales at harvest.

Commodities Potentially Affected

• U.S. Almond Kernels (Nonpareil, Carmel, other California varieties) – Directly impacted as stronger export shipments and higher commitments reduce expected carryout and underpin firm U.S. pricing into the 2026/27 crop transition.
• Spanish Almonds – Spain, as the second-largest producer, may face increased competition from more aggressively marketed U.S. product in key destinations such as Europe and the Middle East, potentially limiting upside for Spanish-origin prices despite its own production dynamics.
• Competing Tree Nuts (Walnuts, Pistachios) – Relative value comparisons between almonds and other U.S. nuts could shift procurement in snack and confectionery sectors if almond prices firm further while walnuts and pistachios remain more competitively priced.
• Processed Nut Ingredients and Nut-Based Products – U.S. manufacturers using almonds in bars, bakery, confectionery and dairy alternatives may face higher replacement costs or longer lead times if export commitments absorb more of the available supply.

Regional Trade Implications

For the U.S., the June report confirms that export channels remain the primary outlet for California almonds, reinforcing the country’s role as a dominant supplier to Europe, India and the Middle East. Elevated new sales of 143.2 million pounds in June, up nearly 48% year-on-year, and total commitments of 368.5 million pounds, up 18%, signal continued strong forward interest.

Within U.S.-focused trade flows, domestic buyers are increasingly competing with export destinations for remaining old-crop stocks. If European demand pauses after pre-Christmas coverage, as some traders anticipate, more volume could be redirected toward U.S. users later in the season, but this remains uncertain. Meanwhile, concerns about local oversupply in India and currency weakness in several importing countries could temper incremental demand despite attractive U.S. supply.

Spain and Australia may need to differentiate on origin, quality and logistics terms to maintain share where U.S. offers are increasingly competitive on both price and reliability, particularly in Europe and the Middle East.

Market Outlook

In the near term, the June shipment surprise and stronger sold position support expectations of a stable-to-firm price environment for U.S. almonds, especially standard grades. Sellers are likely to continue testing modestly higher offers while carefully pacing grower sales into the 2026 harvest to avoid over-supplying the market.

Volatility may increase around harvest as the market reassesses the actual size and quality of the 2026/27 crop, still broadly expected around or slightly below 2.7 billion pounds, and as importers gauge consumer demand under persistent inflation and currency headwinds. Monitoring export order flow from India and Europe, freight conditions on key U.S. outbound routes, and any adjustment in competing nut prices will be critical for near-term positioning.

CMB Market Insight

The June position report marks an inflection point for sentiment in the U.S. almond complex, shifting the narrative from burdensome stocks toward a more balanced market as exports accelerate and commitments rise. For traders and industrial buyers in the USA, the risk profile has moved away from further downside toward potential moderate upside into the new crop.

End users with exposure to almond ingredients may consider securing a portion of forward needs before the full extent of harvest and quality outcomes is known, while remaining agile to adjust coverage if European or Indian demand softens. For origin sellers, disciplined marketing and logistics execution will be key to capturing value in what increasingly looks like a tighter, more orderly transition into the 2026/27 season.