Almonds find firmer footing as exports surge and carryout tightens

U.S. almond prices are shifting to a more stable-to-firm tone as June 2026 shipments and commitments outperformed expectations, tightening projected carryout despite another slightly below-average crop and weak U.S. demand. Global buyers, especially in Europe and key emerging markets, have accelerated forward coverage, lifting export shares well above historical norms. With the current crop essentially sold and receipts close to the 2.7-billion-pound mark, sellers have gained negotiating power, although macro headwinds, currency moves and growing Iberian supply still cap the upside. Spot quotations for U.S. and Spanish kernels in early July show a broadly steady picture in EUR terms, pointing to a market that is better balanced but not yet in clear bull mode.

Prices

Recent offers show U.S. almond kernels broadly steady in early July. U.S. Carmel SSR 20/22 and 18/20 are quoted around EUR 6.50–6.55/kg FAS Washington, while organic Nonpareil 27/30 stands near EUR 9.15/kg FOB. Spanish Marcona 12/14 is offered around EUR 6.45/kg FOB Madrid, with higher grades (S/16, 14/16) between EUR 8.05–8.70/kg, and Valencia types largely in the EUR 6.95–7.30/kg range.

Compared with late June, most references are unchanged in EUR, confirming that the stronger June shipment report has firmed sentiment rather than sparked an outright price spike. U.S. and Spanish values are now closely aligned at the mid-quality level, while premiums persist for specialty types and organic product.

Supply & Demand

June 2026 U.S. almond shipments reached 213.0 million pounds, up 14.1% year on year and above market expectations around 205 million pounds. Season-to-date movement (August–June) climbed to 2.426 billion pounds, now only 1% below last year versus a 2.2% deficit through May, confirming a strong finish to the marketing year.

Exports are the clear engine of growth. June export shipments rose 20.6% year on year to 163.2 million pounds, with season-to-date exports up 3.1% and now representing 78% of total movement, well above the Almond Board’s 75% forecast and a three-year average of 73%. Domestic offtake remains weak: June U.S. shipments fell 3.1%, and domestic volumes are still down 12.7% for the season, suggesting ongoing substitution and demand sensitivity to price and inflation.

Regionally, Europe imported 52.0 million pounds in June, lifting seasonal receipts to 629.5 million pounds, up 6%. India bought 34.1 million pounds in June but remains 9% below last year on a cumulative basis at 344.1 million pounds. Middle East shipments are 2% higher for the season, while China and Hong Kong lag sharply, down 35%, highlighting continued structural weakness and trade frictions in that corridor.

Fundamentals

Crop receipts stand at 2.693 billion pounds, slightly below last year and broadly in line with expectations for a 2.7-billion-pound crop. With the industry’s sold position at 89.3% of total supply and uncommitted inventory down meaningfully, remaining old-crop availability is increasingly tight, particularly for popular grades and specifications.

Buying behavior has clearly shifted. Total commitments climbed to 368.5 million pounds, up 18% year on year, while June new sales surged 47.9% to 143.2 million pounds. New-crop commitments rose 33% to 147.9 million pounds, showing that importers are using the current price plateau to lock in forward cover before the next harvest and any weather or yield surprises.

Nevertheless, several factors cap the upside. Weak domestic demand, higher energy and logistics costs and a relatively strong U.S. dollar versus the euro in recent weeks weigh on import margins in Europe. At the same time, rising almond production in Iberia increases competition in the Mediterranean market, limiting the ability of California sellers to push through aggressive price hikes despite improved fundamentals.

Weather and Crop Outlook

Mid-July forecasts for California’s Central Valley point to seasonally hot, mainly dry conditions, favorable for kernel fill and harvest preparations but with ongoing pressure on irrigation water demand. Near-term weather does not currently pose a major threat to yield or quality, but sustained heat into August would increase stress in younger orchards and in blocks with limited water allocations.

In Spain, warm and mostly dry summer weather is supporting crop development, underpinning expectations for another solid Iberian harvest. This additional regional supply, especially from Marcona and Valencia types, will remain an important counterweight to California-origin price strength in European and Mediterranean demand hubs.

Trading Outlook (next 3–4 weeks)

• Importers / Roasters: Use the current stable price band around EUR 6.5–7.0/kg for standard U.S. and Spanish kernels to extend coverage into early 2027, prioritising Nonpareil and key Carmel sizes where sold positions are already high.
• Origin Sellers: Maintain firm offers on nearby positions given tight old-crop stocks and strong export momentum, but remain flexible on forward months where competition from Iberian supply and macro uncertainty could limit further gains.
• End users / Retailers: Consider gradual price adjustments to rebuild domestic demand without fully passing through higher replacement costs, especially in price-sensitive snack and ingredient channels.

3‑day directional view (EUR-based)

• US kernels, main grades (FAS/FOB): Sideways to slightly firmer; limited spot supply and strong export interest support offers in EUR.
• Spanish kernels (FOB Madrid): Largely stable; competitive pricing versus U.S. product likely to continue, especially for Marcona and Valencia types.
• Organic kernels: Firm; tight availability and robust niche demand sustain premiums over conventional product.