China-Led Buying Supports Almonds as Australian Supply Pace Slows

Australian almond exports are off to a very strong start, with shipments passing 25,000 tonnes in the first quarter of the selling season despite a slower harvest and processing pace. Firm demand from China is anchoring prices and helping the market absorb constrained near-term supply. Robust export flows from Australia contrast with broadly steady quoted prices in Europe and the US, suggesting the market is currently well balanced rather than tight. The main risks lie in logistics bottlenecks from delayed processing, evolving weather patterns in key producing regions, and how Asian buying—especially from China—behaves into Q4. The upcoming Australian Almond Conference in October should become a key waypoint for updated crop and demand guidance.

Prices

Spot almond kernel offers in early July 2026 indicate a broadly stable price environment in EUR terms. US origin Carmel SSR 20/22 and 18/20 are trading around EUR 6.50–6.55/kg FAS Washington, while organic Nonpareil SSR is near EUR 9.15/kg FOB. Spanish Marcona ranges roughly from EUR 6.45/kg (12/14) to EUR 8.70/kg (S/16), with Valencia types largely between EUR 6.95 and 7.30/kg FOB Madrid. Across all listed grades, quotations on 10 July are virtually unchanged from early July, confirming a sideways market.

This price stability, despite Australian supply chain delays and strong Chinese offtake, implies that global stocks and alternative origins (notably California and Spain) are currently sufficient to cap upside, at least in the short term.

Supply & Demand

Australian almond exports surpassed 25,000 tonnes in the first three months of the selling season, only the second time on record that volumes have been this high so early. China remains the powerhouse of this demand: exports to China are up 13% year-on-year, reinforcing its status as the key outlet for Australian product and helping underpin overall market confidence.

The strong export showing is all the more notable because harvest and processing have been hampered by difficult conditions. Intake at processors is slower than normal, and total available volumes to date are below last season. As a result, shipping is expected to be stretched over a longer period than in the last two campaigns, smoothing supply through the year but heightening the risk of short-term tightness for nearby positions and specific grades.

On the demand side, Asia—led by China, but also supported by regional buyers—is providing the main pull, while other major destinations appear adequately supplied. California continues to participate in export markets, though ongoing trade frictions mean it is unlikely to satisfy the full breadth of Chinese demand, leaving space for Australian and Mediterranean origins.

Fundamentals & Weather

The slower Australian processing pace is a key short-term fundamental. While it may allow a more even shipment profile over the marketing year, it also creates operational complexity: exporters must juggle customer delivery windows against delayed supply from processors. Any further disruptions—whether logistical or weather-related—could quickly translate into tighter nearby availability for popular kernel sizes.

Weather-wise, current outlooks for Australia’s southern agricultural regions, including key almond districts in South Australia and Victoria, point to generally mild winter conditions with some tendency towards drier-than-average signals into July–September. This is not immediately threatening to established orchards but may limit soil moisture recharge if dryness persists.

In California’s Central Valley, early July forecasts show rising temperatures towards and above 38°C in the coming days, typical for mid-summer but still relevant for irrigation demand and pest pressure. Sustained heat amplifies water requirements and can support higher populations of pests such as navel orangeworm, factors that may marginally raise production costs but are not yet triggering yield concerns for the current season.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

The near-term market balance for almonds looks broadly stable: strong Australian exports to China and slower processing are offset by comfortable global stocks and competitive supply from other origins. The Australian Almond Conference in Adelaide (13–15 October) will be a key event where updated data on crop size, shipment pace and new-season demand signals are likely to reset price expectations heading into late Q4 and early 2027.

• Buyers (roasters, confectionery, retail): Use the current sideways price environment to extend cover modestly into Q4, especially for Australian and Spanish premium grades, while keeping some flexibility ahead of conference-driven updates.
• Importers/Traders: Prioritise logistics and supplier diversification rather than aggressive price bets. Nearby positions in Australian kernels may warrant a small risk premium given slower processing and potential shipping congestion.
• Growers/Handlers: For Australian sellers, firm Chinese demand supports a measured selling pace. Consider spreading sales to capture any mild upside if logistics tighten, but avoid over‑committing volumes before clearer indications of total crop size later in the year.

3‑Day Directional Price Outlook (EUR)

• US kernels (Carmel, Nonpareil, Washington FAS/FOB): Sideways; narrow range trading expected as global fundamentals are balanced.
• Spanish kernels (Marcona, Valencia, Guara, FOB Madrid): Sideways to slightly firm on steady European and export demand but no clear supply shock.
• Australian-origin kernels (export parity to Asia/EU): Steady with a mild upside bias for prompt shipments where processing delays constrain nearby physical availability.