Almond Kernels Hold Steady as New-Crop Weather Stays Benign

Almond kernel prices in both Spain and the US are flat this week in euro terms, with no meaningful move since early July despite rising production costs and softer export momentum. A benign short‑term weather outlook in California and Spain removes immediate supply stress, keeping the market in a narrow range while buyers wait for clearer signals from the upcoming US position data and initial new‑crop assessments. Spanish FOB Madrid prices for key varieties (Guara, Valencia, Marcona) and US California kernels (Nonpareil, Carmel) are broadly unchanged compared with late June, suggesting a balanced nearby market. Short‑term weather in California’s Central Valley looks seasonally warm and stable, without heat extremes or storms that could threaten the ripening crop, while Spanish producing regions face typical mid‑summer conditions. Export demand remains mixed: India has recently slowed purchases on high prices and good stocks, but Turkey and parts of Europe are absorbing more volume. For now, the price floor is defended by elevated costs and firm medium‑term demand, but upside is capped by heavy global supplies and cautious importers.

Prices

Almond kernel prices quoted in EUR (approximate FX conversion) show a stable pattern week-on-week:

Recent industry commentary confirms that almond prices moved steadily higher through June on firm demand and tighter old‑crop supply, then levelled off into mid‑July as buyers became more cautious ahead of the new harvest. Combined with our flat week‑on‑week quotations, this supports a view of a market consolidating rather than trending.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, California remains the dominant global origin. Fresh analysis from a US farm credit institution notes that June saw solid demand and tightening availability on the 2025/26 crop, but also highlights that buyers in India – the largest single export market – reduced purchases in the second half of June due to high prices, good inventories and expectations of lower prices once the 2026 crop hits the market. This has nudged more volume toward Turkey and Western Europe.

Earlier industry market updates for June show export demand resilient overall, particularly across Europe, Southeast Asia, Turkey and Morocco. However, global supply remains ample, with recent statistics indicating high ending stocks in the US and steady to growing crops in other producing regions, including Spain. This combination of large carry‑in stocks and a normal 2026 crop keeps a lid on any aggressive price rally despite firm structural demand.

In Spain, producer organisations underline that the country is now the largest almond producer in Europe and the third worldwide, stressing increasing competition from California and Australia and the need to defend farm profitability. Their comments suggest growers are reluctant to accept lower prices given rising costs, which effectively helps maintain a floor under European kernel values.

Weather & Crop Conditions (US, ES)

United States (California): Short‑term weather forecasts for Northern California point to a “very nice” July weekend with typical summer warmth and no major heat spikes or storms. While this forecast is generic and not crop‑specific, it indicates benign conditions for orchards across the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys in the immediate 3‑day window. With nut fill well advanced, such stable weather poses little near‑term production risk.

Spain: No almond‑specific weather alerts have been reported in the last three days, and broader Spanish media and grower groups continue to describe a normal season following good production growth in regions such as Andalucía earlier this year. With mid‑summer temperatures typical for July, the focus is more on irrigation costs than on any imminent weather‑driven yield losses. Overall, weather in both ES and US looks neutral for prices in the next few days.

Fundamentals & Costs

Recent analyses point to a structural shift in the almond balance sheet: large crops in the US and expanding acreage in Spain and other origins have pushed global supply higher, while consumption is growing but not fast enough to absorb every increment at higher price levels. At the same time, producers face rising input and logistics costs, especially for water and energy in California and irrigation and labour in Spain.

Industry commentary from European importers and traders in June emphasised that demand should be sufficient to maintain a “stable price level” into mid‑year, but not robust enough to justify sustained price spikes given comfortable stocks. With India stepping back temporarily and some buyers delaying coverage in anticipation of new‑crop offers, nearby fundamentals lean slightly heavy, yet floor support from producer economics and continued snacking and ingredient demand underpins today’s sideways pattern.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)

• Bias: Sideways to mildly soft in EUR, as global availability is comfortable and key importers (notably India) are price‑sensitive, but benign weather and high costs limit downside.
• For buyers: Consider scaling in coverage on spot and nearby positions while prices remain flat, especially for premium Spanish Marcona and US organic Nonpareil, but avoid over‑extending far forward before clearer 2026 crop and position data in late July.
• For sellers: Maintain offer discipline near current levels; only concede small discounts for volume or prompt shipment. Focus on diversifying outlets toward Turkey, EU and MENA to offset weaker Indian demand.
• Risk watch: Sudden heatwaves or irrigation constraints in California or Spain, unexpected demand rebounds from India or China, and currency swings versus EUR that could alter competitiveness.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Spain (FOB Madrid, ES): Prices for Guara, Valencia and Marcona kernels are expected to remain broadly stable over the next three days, with only minor intra‑day adjustments on small trades and FX.
• US (FAS/FOB California ports, quoted in EUR, US): Carmel and Nonpareil kernel values are likely to stay in a narrow sideways band, with sentiment slightly cautious ahead of further US position data but no immediate weather or logistical shock in sight.