Almonds Hold Range as Exports Soften and Costs Bite into Grower Margins

California almonds remain in a relatively stable price range, but the market is being reshaped by weaker export momentum, shifting regional demand and rising production and logistics costs. With shipments running slightly behind last year and unsold stocks edging higher, sentiment is cautious rather than outright bearish, and the next move will hinge on export recovery and 2026 crop development. The latest shipping data show a market in transition rather than in crisis. Domestic demand has softened, India is temporarily pulling back, but Europe and parts of the Middle East are absorbing volume and supporting quality differentials. On the supply side, overall availability is slightly tighter, yet elevated input and freight costs are squeezing grower margins and limit the scope for aggressive price cutting. In this environment, buyers can still secure coverage at historically competitive levels, but should be selective on origin, quality and timing.

Prices

Physical almond kernel prices in late June 2026 reflect a broadly steady tone. Recent indications for U.S. origin kernels in Washington D.C. show Nonpareil-type organic product around EUR 9.22/kg (FOB), with mainstream Carmel SSR grades near EUR 6.55–6.60/kg (FAS). Spanish Marcona and Valencia kernels are mostly quoted between roughly EUR 6.00 and 8.75/kg FOB, with organic Nonpareil-type Spanish product near EUR 11.35/kg, underscoring a firm premium structure for specialty and origin-differentiated supplies.

The narrow day‑to‑day changes over June confirm that the market is consolidating rather than trending strongly in either direction. Slight upticks in some Spanish Valencia grades and the stable U.S. offers suggest that nearby supply is adequate, but not burdensome. In practice, buyers still enjoy good availability, yet the combination of firmer costs and modestly lower shipments reduces the likelihood of deep discounts in the short term.

Supply & Demand

California’s shipment data paint a picture of slowing momentum after a strong first half of the season. April shipments reached 219.9 million pounds, down 9% year on year, with domestic offtake nearly flat (-1%) but exports falling 11% to 167.27 million pounds. Cumulatively, total shipments so far this season stand near 1.99 billion pounds, about 3% below last year, reflecting a clear but controlled cooling in demand.

The composition of demand is shifting. Season-to-date domestic consumption is down 14%, signaling pressure from food manufacturers and retail channels, while exports are still slightly positive (+1%). India, the key growth engine in recent years, has reduced imports by around 8% this season, as importers slow purchases amid rupee weakness, higher freight and fuel costs linked to Middle East tensions, and quality concerns in Australian supply chains. By contrast, European demand is comparatively robust: shipments to Spain are up 17%, Italy 9% and Germany 4%, though exports to the Netherlands are down 27%. Turkey has emerged as a strong trading hub in the Middle East, partly offsetting a decline in shipments to the UAE.

On the supply side, total availability this season is about 3.12 billion pounds, slightly below last year, but unsold stocks have increased by 4%, indicating that the pipeline is comfortable. The 2026 crop is expected around 2.68–2.72 billion pounds, broadly aligned with the current industry projection of 2.7 billion pounds, reinforcing a view of steady, not excessive, production capacity going into the next marketing year.

Fundamentals & Costs

Fundamentally, the almond balance sheet is moderately loose but far from the oversupply extremes seen in previous years. A marginally smaller overall availability, coupled with slightly lower total shipments and higher carryout, keeps inventories adequate. The key risk is that if export growth does not re‑accelerate, the market could carry a heavier stock position into the 2026/27 season, which would cap upside in kernel prices despite cost inflation.

Rising fuel, fertilizer and energy costs are a central concern for growers. Elevated freight and insurance costs on routes affected by Middle East tensions add another layer of expense, particularly for shipments into South Asia and the Middle East. Limited water availability and weather uncertainty in California remain structural constraints: while current crop expectations are stable around 2.7 billion pounds, any heat, frost or water stress episodes over the coming months could quickly shift the tone from comfortably supplied to weather‑risk focused.

Weather & Regional Outlook

For early July, California’s core almond regions look set for typical warm, dry summer conditions, supportive of kernel filling and maturation rather than posing acute stress. At this stage of the season, attention is on sustained irrigation access and any extreme heat spikes that could tighten pre‑harvest expectations. With acreage marginally lower and input costs higher, growers are unlikely to push aggressively for volume at the expense of quality or long‑term orchard health.

In destination markets, no major weather disruptions are currently constraining demand, but macroeconomic headwinds in India and currency moves in emerging markets may influence buying pace. Europe, by contrast, continues to show stable demand, and local Spanish production prices suggest a floor under global almond values, particularly for premium varieties such as Marcona and high‑spec organic product.

Trading Outlook

• Importers in Europe: Consider extending coverage modestly on dips, especially for Nonpareil and Carmel grades, as solid regional demand and firm Spanish reference prices reduce downside risk for Q3–Q4.
• Indian and Middle East buyers: Use current range‑bound conditions to secure staggered positions rather than waiting for significantly lower prices, given potential freight volatility and a broadly steady 2026 crop outlook.
• Growers and handlers: Focus sales on quality‐sensitive channels and value‑added grades to defend margins, while avoiding heavy discounting that could undermine pricing ahead of the new crop.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional, in EUR)