EU Zero-Duty Quota Reshapes Almond Trade into Europe

California almonds are entering a more supportive price and demand phase as the EU’s new zero-duty tariff rate quota for U.S. almonds removes a major source of uncertainty and improves competitiveness in a key premium market. In early July, the EU approved a preferential zero-tariff quota for U.S. almonds under the new EU‑U.S. trade agreement, avoiding the earlier risk of a 25% retaliatory duty and locking in duty-free access for eligible volumes through the end of 2029. Lower landed costs into the EU, combined with a slightly smaller California crop outlook and firm European demand, are stabilising prices after previous years of oversupply. Early market indications point to mildly softer kernel prices but a more constructive medium-term environment for exporters, importers and industrial users.

Prices

Recent indications show almond kernel prices easing slightly month-on-month but holding in a relatively firm band as fundamentals improve. Spot assessments for U.S. Nonpareil and Carmel kernels and Spanish varieties suggest only marginal declines over the second half of June and into early July, consistent with a market digesting better trade news rather than a supply shock.

Indicative wholesale data from Germany for July 2026 shows almonds trading around 8.4 EUR/kg, broadly aligned with these export offers and confirming a stable to slightly softer price environment in Europe as the new quota takes effect. 

Supply & Demand

The core driver of today’s market is regulatory rather than agronomic: the EU’s approval of a zero-duty tariff rate quota for U.S. almonds under the new EU‑U.S. trade agreement. The measure grants eligible U.S. almond shipments 0% duty on entry into the EU until the quota is filled, with the framework expected to remain in place through 2029. 

This outcome ends months of uncertainty when a 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. almonds had been under consideration. The removal of that threat markedly improves pricing visibility for European buyers and restores California’s competitive edge against alternative origins. Europe is a major premium destination for snack, confectionery and ingredient use; lower landed costs are likely to underpin stronger demand from manufacturers and retailers, especially in higher-value segments. 

On the supply side, California’s 2026 crop is expected to be modestly smaller than last year’s ~2.7 billion pounds, following the first decline in bearing acreage in decades.  Tighter inventories and slower acreage growth reduce the risk of renewed oversupply just as EU import demand is being structurally encouraged by the quota. For European buyers, this combination points to ample but more disciplined availability rather than the surplus-driven environment of previous seasons.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamental indicators are turning more supportive. Industry position data through April 2026 already showed improved shipment pace and lower carry-out expectations versus prior years, setting the stage for a more balanced 2026/27 marketing year.  With Europe now offering zero-duty access for qualifying U.S. volumes, export channels should remain active, especially in core markets such as Germany, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands.

Weather-wise, California’s almond belt enters mid-summer with generally seasonally warm, dry conditions. No immediate large-scale weather shock has been reported in early July that would significantly alter the 2026 crop outlook, although water availability and heat spells remain key watchpoints during nut fill and pre-harvest.  In Europe, typical summer conditions support steady consumer demand for snack nuts and ice-cream/confectionery ingredients, helping to absorb incoming U.S. shipments under the new trade regime.

Outlook & Trading Strategy

The new zero-duty quota through 2029 materially improves trade stability and price discovery for California almonds into Europe. With the tariff overhang removed, price formation is likely to reflect more traditional fundamentals: Californian crop size, competing tree-nut prices and currency moves, rather than headline tariff risk.

• European buyers: Use current mildly softer prices to extend coverage for late 2026 and early 2027 needs, particularly for premium Nonpareil and Spanish Marcona/Valencia, while monitoring quota utilisation and freight costs.
• California exporters: Prioritise EU contracts to capture zero-duty access and strengthen relationships with industrial users, but maintain discipline on forward sales until crop size is clearer.
• Industry users: Consider diversifying specifications (Carmel and Spanish Guara/Valencia) to optimise cost-in-use in case Nonpareil premiums widen later in the season.

Near term (next three trading days), almond prices on key European-linked benchmarks are expected to trade sideways to slightly firmer. The supportive policy shift and tighter Californian fundamentals should limit downside, while still‑comfortable spot availability and the early stage of the season cap sharp rallies.