China Millet Market Holds Steady as Tight Farm Supply Offsets Weak Demand

Chinese millet prices are broadly stable, as declining small-millet retail sales and cautious mill demand are offset by tightening farm-level stocks and shrinking old-crop availability. Market participants overwhelmingly expect a sideways price pattern in the short term.

Overall market activity is subdued. Many mills report comfortable raw millet inventories and are reluctant to replenish aggressively as small-millet sales slow across several regions. At the same time, grassroots grain holders have already sold a significant portion of the 2025 crop in many areas, and remaining on-farm volumes vary widely from roughly 20% to 50%. Old-crop supply continues to dwindle and farmers are in no hurry to sell, providing a floor under prices.

📈 Prices

Export and offer indications in late March 2026 confirm the picture of a broadly stable millet market with only marginal moves:

• China, Beijing FOB, hulled yellow millet kernels, conventional, approx. EUR 0.74/kg, unchanged week-on-week.
• China, Beijing FOB, hulled yellow millet kernels, organic, approx. EUR 0.84/kg, also flat versus last week.
• Ukraine, Odesa FOB, hulled yellow millet seeds, conventional, around EUR 0.24/kg, steady after a small rise earlier in March.

Domestic survey feedback indicates that over 90% of exporters currently assess mainstream millet prices in China as stable, with neither strong upward nor downward pressure in the immediate term.

Origin	Product	Quality	Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	WoW Change (EUR/kg)
CN Beijing	Millet kernels	hulled, yellow, conv.	FOB	0.74	0.00
CN Beijing	Millet kernels	hulled, yellow, organic	FOB	0.84	0.00
UA Odesa	Millet seeds	hulled, yellow, conv.	FOB	0.24	0.00

🌍 Supply & Demand

Supply: At the grassroots level in major producing regions, remaining 2025-crop millet stocks are estimated at roughly 20–50% of initial volumes, depending on locality. Meanwhile, old-crop supplies are steadily diminishing. Farmers show limited selling interest at current levels, preferring to hold remaining stocks, which is helping to underpin prices despite soft demand.

Demand: Most mills report adequate millet inventories, and small-millet end-product sales have recently decreased in many areas. As a result, mills are less active in replenishing raw millet and are selectively buying only suitable lots. Grain traders likewise display low procurement enthusiasm, focusing on targeted purchases rather than volume buying. This cautious stance caps any immediate upside in raw millet prices.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals point to a balanced but lethargic market. On the one hand, the reduction in farm and old-crop stocks suggests that total available supply is somewhat lower than in the same period of the past two years. On the other hand, the decline in small-millet sales and comfortable mill inventories reduce near-term demand pull, keeping overall trade volumes light.

Weather in North China around Beijing over the next three days is seasonally mild with daytime highs around 20–22°C and no significant cold or heat stress expected. Air quality is forecast to remain poor, but this is not seen as a major direct factor for short-term millet supply. For now, weather does not materially alter the supply–demand balance, and fundamentals rather than climate are steering the market.

📆 Trading Outlook

• Short term (next 1–2 weeks): Prices are likely to remain in a narrow range, supported by limited remaining farm stocks and shrinking old-crop availability, but capped by sluggish small-millet sales and cautious mill buying.
• Buyers: With mainstream prices broadly stable and sellers still relatively well covered, end-users can continue hand-to-mouth or staggered purchasing, focusing on quality and logistics rather than trying to time large volume moves.
• Farmers and holders: Given weak immediate demand but a supportive floor from tightening supply, gradual, price-sensitive sales appear prudent. Aggressive selling is not necessary, but significant price appreciation also seems unlikely without a demand recovery.
• Exporters: With over 90% expecting stable prices, maintaining current offer levels while monitoring downstream demand and currency moves is advisable; any shift in small-millet retail sales will be the key trigger for price adjustment.

📉 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (CN)

• North China (around Beijing, FOB basis): Conventional hulled kernels are expected to hold near EUR 0.74/kg; organic around EUR 0.84/kg over the next three days, with a stable to slightly firm bias if farmer selling remains slow.
• Domestic inland markets: Spot millet prices should remain broadly unchanged, with minor location and quality-related spreads more influenced by logistics and local stock positions than by national fundamentals.