China Millet Prices Ease as Supply Stays Comfortable, Demand Cautious

China millet export prices are edging slightly lower, with only modest support from domestic demand and relatively comfortable supplies. Weakness in freight and competing feed grains is capping any upside, while weather in key North China Plain millet areas is currently non-threatening.

Millet markets in China are trading in a narrow, mildly bearish range. Export offers from Beijing for hulled yellow kernels have slipped a few EUR per tonne versus early March, tracking softer sentiment across minor coarse grains. Ukraine and Poland remain competitive but face logistics and geopolitical risks, limiting aggressive undercutting into Asian destinations. With China’s overall grain output at record levels and millet production stable, buyers retain the upper hand in nearby negotiations. In the short term, attention is on planting weather in northern China and any renewed freight or Black Sea disruptions.

📈 Prices & Differentials

Latest indicative spot/nearby offers converted to EUR (approx. 1 EUR = 1.10 USD for reference):

Origin	Product	Term	Price (EUR/t)	1w Δ (EUR/t)
CN – Beijing	Millet kernels, hulled, yellow, conv.	FOB	≈ 673	-18
CN – Beijing	Millet kernels, hulled, yellow, organic	FOB	≈ 764	-18
UA – Odesa	Millet seeds, hulled, yellow	FOB	≈ 176	0
PL – Kiełczygłow	Millet seeds, hulled, yellow	FCA	≈ 617	≈ -16

Chinese FOB millet values are down around 2–3% versus early March, mirroring softer purchasing prices reported for millet in Ukraine and other minor grains, where local bids have also stabilized at relatively low levels.

🌍 Supply & Demand Snapshot

China’s millet output for 2025/26 is estimated near 2.7–2.8 M t, broadly stable on the year and representing roughly 9% of global production. Overall grain production in China hit a record ~715 M t in 2025, easing concerns on staple availability and maintaining comfortable coarse grain balance sheets.

Millet remains a niche component in China’s feed and food complex, with exports relatively small compared to corn and wheat. International data show only modest Chinese exports in the coarse grains ‘other’ category, limiting any global tightness signal from China alone. In Ukraine, official and trade sources highlight logistics constraints and strong focus on wheat and corn, leaving millet as a secondary crop with restrained upside in domestic bids.

📊 Fundamentals & External Drivers

Record or near-record grain harvests in China and large exportable coarse grain supplies from the Black Sea region keep global feed grain values capped, indirectly pressuring millet. Ukrainian grain logistics via Odesa remain vulnerable to infrastructure attacks and corridor uncertainties, which can temporarily widen FOB spreads but have not yet triggered a strong millet price spike.

Competing crops such as barley and peas in Ukraine show either firm or pressured prices depending on local balance, but overall signal intense competition for export demand. For millet, this translates into steady but not aggressive buying interest from importers, who can switch to other coarse grains if prices rise too far above current levels.

🌦 Weather – North China Millet Belt (CN Focus)

Recent forecasts for the North China Plain and adjacent northern millet-growing areas (Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia) point to seasonally cool, mostly dry conditions over the next week with no major extremes. Soil moisture after winter remains adequate in most areas, and no widespread cold waves or excessive rainfall are indicated in short-range models.

This benign pattern supports timely field preparation and early planting but does not yet generate any weather risk premium for new-crop millet. Weather will become more price-relevant if late-spring rainfall deviates significantly from normal, especially during germination and early vegetative stages.

📆 Short-Term Price Outlook (3–7 Days, EUR)

• CN Beijing FOB millet kernels (conv. & organic): Bias slightly softer to sideways; buyers are likely to target minor discounts of 3–7 EUR/t, with sellers defending current levels amid stable domestic grain conditions.
• UA Odesa FOB millet seeds: Sideways; no clear catalyst for a move away from current low levels, though any fresh logistics disruption could add 2–4 EUR/t risk premium.
• PL FCA millet seeds: Mildly soft; competition from Black Sea origins and comfortable EU feed grain supplies may trim offers by another 5–10 EUR/t if demand stays thin.

🧭 Trading Recommendations

• Feed buyers in CN: Use the current soft tone to extend short-covering for Q2, but avoid over-committing into Q3 until more is known about early-summer weather and policy signals.
• Exporters in CN: Consider small, tactical price concessions to secure nearby shipments, especially in conventional millet, while keeping organic premiums firm.
• Importers in Asia/MENA: Keep China and Ukraine millet offers on the same grid; favor CN for quality consistency and logistics reliability, but be ready to shift partial volumes to UA if freight and corridor conditions stabilize and deepen the discount.

📍 3‑Day Directional View (Region: CN)

• CN Beijing FOB millet kernels: Stable to slightly weaker; intra-week moves likely confined to ±1–2 EUR/t.
• Domestic CN inland wholesale (indicative): Largely flat, tracking broader feed grain indices with no clear weather or policy trigger in the next three days.
• Volatility: Expected to remain low; geopolitical or freight headlines are the main upside risk, while strong grain fundamentals limit downside beyond gradual erosion.