China Pine Nut FOB Prices Edge Higher as Global Supply Tightens

China-origin pine nut FOB prices in Dalian firm slightly, supported by a sharply smaller global crop and steady overseas demand, but the move remains incremental rather than explosive. Chinese pine nut offers are nudging higher into early June, with buyers digesting news of a heavily reduced 2025/26 world crop and notably weaker Chinese output, while near-term weather in key northeastern production zones looks cool and damp rather than threatening. Against this backdrop, export demand from Europe and the Middle East appears resilient, in line with the broader strength seen across the nut and dried fruit sector, though pine nuts remain a niche, supply-driven market. Participants are cautiously restocking but remain price‑sensitive at the current elevated global level.

Prices

All prices converted at ~1 EUR = 1.10 USD.

FOB Dalian prices for both 1200 ct and 950 ct grades have risen by about EUR 0.09/kg over the past week, after drifting in a narrow band through May. This mild firming mirrors broader commentary that the 2025/26 pine nut crop is sharply smaller worldwide, with China’s in-shell output reportedly down more than 70% year on year, pushing the global crop to roughly half of last season and maintaining a tight, high‑price environment.

Supply & Demand

Fresh industry analysis released this week highlights a world in-shell pine nut crop near 84,600 MT for 2025/26, versus about 174,000 MT last year, with China the main loser and some support from Mediterranean origins insufficient to offset the gap. Exporters in China therefore have limited raw material to work with, and pipeline stocks are being drawn down, reducing the buffer for the rest of 2026.

On the demand side, nut and dried fruit consumption indicators from China’s recent industry fair show resilient interest in premium tree nuts despite cost pressure, with strong holiday demand reported especially in pistachios and other categories. While this report does not single out pine nuts, it supports the view that end-user demand in key Asian and European markets remains healthy; thus, price resistance is more about levels than fundamental weakness. Given pine nuts’ role in high‑value foodservice and retail mixes, substitution is limited, keeping demand relatively inelastic in the short term.

Fundamentals & Weather

In northeastern China (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia forest zones), where a significant share of China’s pine nut resources are sourced from wild or semi‑managed stands, recent weather has been cool with intermittent rain. Forecasts for locations across Heilongjiang and Jilin over the coming days show daytime highs mainly in the mid‑teens to low‑20s °C and light to moderate showers, consistent with early‑summer conditions but not indicative of acute heat or drought stress.

In Dalian, the main export hub for Chinese pine nuts, short‑term forecasts point to relatively mild, seasonally normal weather with some cloud and limited precipitation. Overall, near‑term meteorological conditions in CN regions linked to pine nut collection look neutral for supply: they neither alleviate the structural tightness created by last year’s poor cone set, nor do they introduce new immediate risks for the 2026/27 cycle. Logistics from northeastern ports are currently functioning normally, with no weather‑related disruption reported.

Outlook & Trading Ideas

Given the steep drop in global production and the drawdown of world stocks, most forward-looking analyses expect the pine nut market to remain tight through the remainder of 2026, even if prices consolidate around current levels. The slight firming seen in Dalian this week is consistent with this narrative: participants are testing higher offer levels, but liquidity is still thin and many buyers are reluctant to chase the market after the strong run‑up already seen earlier in the season.

• Importers / Roasters (EU, MENA): Consider covering a portion of Q3–Q4 needs at current EUR‑converted FOB levels, especially for 950 ct, while staggering additional purchases in case of temporary dips from profit‑taking or currency moves.
• Chinese exporters: With limited in‑shell availability and firm global demand, maintain disciplined offer strategies; avoid heavy forward commitments beyond available raw material to reduce price and supply risk.
• Speculative / inventory holders: The fundamental backdrop favors a mildly bullish bias, but given already elevated prices, focus on carry optimization and quality differentiation rather than aggressive outright length.

3‑Day Price Direction (FOB Dalian, CN)

• Pine nuts 1200 ct: EUR 13.9–14.1/kg FOB over the next three days, bias slightly upward as tight global supply supports offers.
• Pine nuts 950 ct: EUR 14.4–14.7/kg FOB over the next three days, also with a modest upside bias given stronger demand for larger counts.