Chinese Pine Nuts Ease Lower as Dalian FOB Softens on Calm Demand

Chinese pine nut FOB prices in Dalian have edged slightly lower, with narrow day‑to‑day moves that point to a stable but soft market and limited nearby demand from export buyers. Export-grade Chinese pine nuts are trading in a tight range with a mild downward bias as buyers work through existing stocks and await clearer signals on the next harvest in China and neighboring origins. Broader nut prices in China remain under mild pressure, reflecting softer consumer demand, while early‑season weather in key forest regions is seasonally cool but not yet disruptive. Wildfire risks in Russia’s Siberian forests add a medium‑term supply uncertainty but have not translated into immediate price spikes in the Dalian export market.

Prices

FOB Dalian pine nut prices from China are modestly softer compared with the previous update. Recent offers for standard Chinese pine nuts (CN origin, FOB Dalian) show a small week‑on‑week decline of roughly 1% in EUR terms, after having been broadly flat earlier in June. The move indicates gentle buyer resistance at prior levels rather than a sharp shift in fundamentals.

Across the wider Chinese nut complex, benchmark producer prices for mixed nuts have been trending lower month on month, pointing to a generally weak tone in the domestic nut category and some spillover into export negotiations.

Supply & Demand

China remains the dominant global pine nut supplier, sourcing kernels both from domestic forests (notably northeast China) and from cross‑border flows out of Siberia, Mongolia and other Asian origins. Recent global industry data for 2025/26 indicate a more moderate Chinese crop compared with the previous season but still sufficient to cover normal export programs, supporting the current lack of urgency among buyers.

On the demand side, there are no fresh indications of a sudden surge from key destinations such as the EU or Middle East within the last few days. With broader nut prices in China easing year on year and importers in mature markets still managing comfortable inventories, near‑term buying interest is mainly limited to hand‑to‑mouth coverage rather than forward stocking.

Weather & External Risks (CN‑Focused)

In northeast China’s Daxing’anling region, a major conifer forest zone linked to pine nut collection, short‑term weather remains relatively cool and stable. National meteorological forecasts for the coming days show maximum temperatures in the mid‑teens Celsius and no extreme heat or widespread storm systems, implying low immediate weather stress on cone development.

By contrast, Russia’s Krasnoyarsk region in Siberia is currently battling extensive wildfires that have rapidly expanded in area during June, with emergency crews and aircraft deployed across remote forest zones. While these events are still some distance from the Chinese border, they highlight rising climate and fire risks in Siberian pine forests that could tighten cross‑border pine nut availability later in the year if damage extends into productive stands.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

Structural fundamentals remain relatively balanced. Recent international statistics show that after a strong 2024/25 campaign, global pine nut supplies in 2025/26 are expected to be lower but not critically tight, with Asian origins (China, Russia, Mongolia, Afghanistan, Pakistan) still accounting for the bulk of world production and exports. The current modest price softening in Dalian therefore reflects normal in‑between‑season trading rather than a fundamental oversupply.

Speculative participation in pine nuts is limited compared with larger nut markets, and there are no recent reports of aggressive fund activity within the last three days. The combination of steady physical flows, cautious buying, and low speculative interest contributes to a narrow trading band and favors range‑bound price behavior in the short term.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Guidance

• Price bias (0–2 weeks): Slightly bearish to sideways. In the absence of a weather shock or a major demand surprise, FOB Dalian pine nut prices are likely to drift in a tight range around current levels, with any rallies quickly capped by ample offers.
• Buyers (EU, Middle East): Consider maintaining staggered spot and near‑by purchases rather than heavy forward coverage. The soft tone in Chinese nut prices and stable CN weather argue against an imminent spike, but wildfire risks in Siberia warrant avoiding excessive delays in coverage.
• Chinese exporters: Given the mild easing in prices and quiet demand, prioritise competitive, flexible offers and focus on quality and timely shipment to secure market share ahead of any later‑season supply tightening from neighboring origins.

3‑Day Directional Price View (EUR, FOB Dalian)

• Pine nuts 1200 (CN): Stable to −0.5%, with most trades expected to print near 14.0–14.2 EUR/kg.
• Pine nuts 950 (CN): Stable to −0.5%, likely trading around 14.5–14.7 EUR/kg.