Chinese Pine Nut FOB Prices Hold Steady Amid Quiet Trade and Stable Supply

Chinese pine nut FOB prices in Dalian are flat compared with mid‑June, with only marginal gains versus late May, reflecting balanced nearby supply and subdued export demand. No fresh policy or logistics shocks have emerged in the last few days, so trading remains thin and largely hand‑to‑mouth. After a modest uptick earlier in June, pine nut offers from Dalian have stabilized, with buyers showing little urgency to extend coverage beyond the short term. The absence of nut‑specific policy changes, combined with generally smooth export flows from China, keeps the market in a narrow range. Weather in the main pine nut forest regions in northern China is seasonally warm with scattered showers, posing no immediate threat to the upcoming cone and kernel outlook. Against this calm backdrop, participants are mainly watching broader trade and export‑control headlines rather than any direct, pine‑nut‑specific driver.

Prices

FOB Dalian prices for Chinese pine nuts are unchanged on June 20, 2026 compared with the previous quote, indicating short‑term stability in export values. The recent firmness earlier in June has given way to a sideways pattern as neither sellers nor buyers see a strong catalyst to move aggressively.

(Prices converted from USD‑equivalent offers to EUR with a recent market FX rate.)

Supply & Demand

China remains the key global supplier of pine nut kernels, with export volumes underpinned by production from Northeast China and neighboring origins such as North Korea, Russia and Mongolia. Latest industry balance estimates earlier this year pointed to lower total world pine nut supply in 2025/26 versus the prior season, but still adequate availability when including carry‑in stocks.

In the last three days there have been no new, pine‑nut‑specific trade policy announcements from Chinese authorities. Recent customs and trade discussions have focused instead on broader export‑control issues and critical minerals rather than agricultural nuts. With no immediate regulatory shock and with container availability normalizing after earlier disruptions in other sectors, exporters report a quiet but orderly market where buyers are content to purchase gradually rather than front‑load demand.

Fundamentals & Policy Context

Macro‑level trade policy in China is currently under review, with some domestic economists calling for targeted reductions in export tax rebates to help rebalance the record trade surplus. While tree nuts have not been singled out, the debate underscores potential medium‑term risk that some low‑value‑added export categories could face less fiscal support, which might eventually influence offer behavior if implemented.

On the import side, China has recently liberalized market access for African cashew nuts, aiming to broaden sources and deepen agricultural trade with Africa. This shift highlights Beijing’s strategy to diversify nut supply chains, but it has minimal direct near‑term impact on pine nuts, which are structurally more dependent on Eurasian forest resources than plantation crops. For now, this context simply reinforces that buyers have a growing range of alternative nuts, which can cap upside for pine nut prices unless there is a clear supply shock.

Weather Outlook (CN Pine Nut Regions)

For the next three days (June 22–24, 2026), key pine nut forest regions in northern China (notably parts of Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang) are forecast to see seasonally warm early‑summer temperatures with scattered showers and no extreme heat or prolonged dryness. These conditions are broadly neutral to slightly supportive for cone development, with no immediate weather‑driven threat to the next crop.

Given the current stage of the season and the relatively benign forecast, weather is not expected to be a primary price driver in the very short term. Market participants will keep monitoring for any shift toward heatwaves or storm activity later in the summer, but near‑term price risk from CN weather remains low.

Trading Outlook

• Short‑term (next 1–2 weeks): Expect a sideways market in Dalian FOB pine nuts, with bids and offers clustering close to current levels. Thin liquidity suggests any small deals can move the screen, but underlying value remains stable.
• Buyers: Consider maintaining rolling coverage rather than rushing to lock in large volumes; there is no immediate sign of a price spike, and export logistics from China are currently functioning smoothly.
• Sellers: With no strong bullish catalyst, holding out for significantly higher levels may be difficult; selective forward sales on small rallies can help manage inventory and FX exposure.

3‑Day Price Indication (CN, FOB)

• Dalian FOB pine nuts, Grade 1200: Stable in EUR terms, with a very narrow range; bias neutral for the next three days.
• Dalian FOB pine nuts, Grade 950: Also seen stable; minor day‑to‑day fluctuations may occur due to FX moves rather than CN‑side fundamentals.
• Overall, the pine nut market in China is expected to remain calm through the start of next week, with traders watching macro trade headlines more than physical supply shifts.