Chinese Pine Nuts Edge Lower as FOB Dalian Softens on Ample Near-Term Supply

Chinese pine nut FOB prices in Dalian eased slightly this week, with both 950 and 1200 count grades drifting lower but remaining within a tight trading band. The market shows no sign of panic selling, yet buyers are negotiating harder as short‑term supply looks comfortable and demand signals from key export markets stay cautious. Spot trading in China’s pine nut hub remains orderly, with only modest week‑on‑week declines suggesting a mild correction rather than a trend reversal. Internationally, pine nuts continue to trade as a high‑value niche nut, strongly influenced by small changes in crop expectations and forest yields. Recent industry balance sheets still point to constrained global production growth and low ending stocks in 2025/26, but current Chinese export pipelines appear adequately supplied for nearby shipment. Weather in Liaoning and surrounding collection regions is seasonally warm and mostly dry, providing neutral‑to‑supportive conditions for forthcoming cone development without adding immediate weather premium to prices.

Prices

Based on recent indications and a working EUR/CNY rate of 1 EUR ≈ 7.5 CNY, latest Chinese FOB Dalian pine nut offers translate into the mid‑teens EUR/kg range, slightly below last week but still historically elevated for this time of year. Global reference data confirm that pine nuts sit at the top end of the tree nut price spectrum, reflecting their constrained supply and labour‑intensive processing.

*Indicative conversions from CNY-denominated FOB offers; actual traded levels may vary by contract size and quality adjustments.

Supply & Demand

Latest global pine nut balance sheets from the international nut and dried fruit industry show that total world supply in 2025/26 is projected to remain relatively tight, with Asian origins (China, Mongolia, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan) dominating production and trade. China alone is estimated to account for roughly half of world pine nut supply, underlining Dalian’s benchmark role for international pricing.

Short‑term, however, export availability from China appears comfortable thanks to carry‑in stocks and the tail end of last season’s collection from northeastern forests and imports from neighbouring origins. Recent trade intelligence points to stable demand from Europe and East Asia but no strong restocking wave, as high absolute price levels and cautious consumer spending keep buyers disciplined.

Weather & Crop Conditions (CN)

Weather in Dalian and Liaoning, a key coastal logistics and processing hub for northeastern pine nuts, is seasonally warm and mostly dry going into the weekend, with daytime highs around the mid‑20s°C and limited precipitation risk over the next few days. Forecasts show no immediate heatwave or heavy rain threat that would disrupt cone development in nearby pine forests or regional transport and port operations.

More broadly across northern China, national meteorological discussions continue to flag El Niño–related volatility for 2026, but current assessments do not indicate acute stress in core wild‑harvest pine nut regions. This keeps weather in a neutral role for now: an important watchpoint for later in the season, yet not a present driver of price spikes or supply concerns.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Stocks and pipeline: Industry data indicate low global ending stocks but adequate near‑term Chinese availability, creating a balance where prices are supported structurally yet lack fresh bullish catalysts this week.
• Competing nuts: Tree nut trade statistics for early 2026 show robust imports and exports in other nuts, suggesting buyers have alternatives and are sensitive to pine nut premiums, limiting upside unless supply disappoints.
• Macro and trade flows: China’s broader export performance has improved recently, signalling resilient logistics and external demand, yet this strength is concentrated in manufactured goods rather than niche agro‑products like pine nuts.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

• Short‑term bias: With FOB Dalian offers easing about 1% week‑on‑week, the near‑term price bias is slightly softer but within a sideways band. Weather is neutral, and no major shock on export demand has emerged.
• For buyers: Consider gradually extending coverage on dips at current levels, focusing on flexible shipment windows and quality/specification clarity. Aggressive waiting for deeper discounts carries the risk of supply tightening later if cone prospects deteriorate.
• For sellers: Maintain offer discipline; avoid chasing business too far below current indications given structurally tight global supply. Prioritise reliable counterparties and spreads between 950 and 1200 count grades that fairly reflect kernel yields.

3‑day regional price indication (FOB Dalian, CN, EUR/kg):

• Pine nuts 1200 ct: stable to slightly softer, ~1.95–2.05 EUR/kg.
• Pine nuts 950 ct: stable to slightly softer, ~2.07–2.17 EUR/kg.
• Direction: mild downside drift within a broadly sideways range, barring sudden weather or policy headlines.