China’s Slower Soybean Import Growth Keeps Brazil in the Lead

China’s soybean import growth is decelerating, but the country will still anchor global demand and keep Brazil firmly in the driver’s seat, while the US and others play a complementary role. Near-term prices in China are mildly firmer, reflecting stable demand and tightness in premium origins rather than an outright supply shock. China’s import demand remains structurally massive, with projections for 2030 at 120–125 million tonnes and some institutions even seeing 135–140 million tonnes, still more than 60% of global trade. Market feedback indicates that incremental growth is slowing from previous double‑digit phases, but the absolute volume keeps China as the decisive price‑setter in global soybeans. Supply remains highly concentrated in Brazil, while the US, Argentina and emerging origins mainly fill seasonal and quality niches. Regional FOB prices in China, the US, India and Ukraine have edged higher over the last weeks in euro terms, underscoring a cautiously bullish tone.

Prices

Recent offers show a modest upward trend across key origins when converted into EUR/tonne. Chinese yellow soybeans FOB Beijing are around EUR 760/tonne for conventional and EUR 820/tonne for organic, both roughly EUR 20/tonne higher than late June. US No. 2 soybeans FOB Washington are near EUR 700/tonne, up about EUR 20/tonne over the same period, while Ukrainian FOB Odesa soybeans remain notably cheaper at roughly EUR 355–390/tonne depending on GMO‑free certification.

Domestic Chinese port quotes in the last two days indicate a stable‑to‑slightly firmer tone, supported by stronger external futures, firm Brazilian export premiums and continued feed demand. The modest appreciation of export prices in Brazil and resilient demand from China suggest that downside in seaborne values is limited in the very short run, even if global crops remain broadly adequate.

Supply & Demand

Market participants expect China’s soybean imports to reach around 120–125 million tonnes by 2030, with some more bullish views up to 135–140 million tonnes. Despite slower incremental increases, this would still represent over 60% of global soybean trade, confirming China’s structural role as the key demand hub. Within China, crush and feed sectors remain the primary drivers, while policy focuses on food security and alternative protein sources only marginally tempers soybean needs.

Import sourcing is highly concentrated: Brazil supplies roughly 70–75% of China’s soybean imports, in line with recent customs and trade data showing that about 70–73% of Brazilian soybean exports this year have gone to China. US soybeans have retreated to a supplementary role, constrained by tariff and geopolitical factors, while Argentina contributes marginal volumes amid its own production volatility. China is actively trialing diversification toward Russia, Africa and Central Asia, already approving 17 origins, but these remain small and higher‑cost, unable to challenge the Brazil–US–Argentina triangle in the short term.

Outside China, new import demand centers are emerging. Southeast Asia (notably Indonesia and Vietnam), South Asia (Pakistan) and North Africa/Middle East are increasing soybean meal and, in some cases, bean imports as feed demand grows. Recent analysis of soybean meal trade shows total global meal trade exceeding 110 million tonnes in 2026, with delivered prices into Southeast Asia around EUR 455–470/tonne, supporting continued crush margins for origin exporters. These emerging buyers will add depth to global demand but remain far smaller than China.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, record‑near Brazilian crops and solid US acreage intentions point to comfortable medium‑term supply, but basis levels remain supported by China’s structural pull. Brazilian exports have already surpassed 72.7 million tonnes in 2026 and are projected above 82 million tonnes by July, with roughly 70–71% destined for China. Freight and logistics from Brazil’s northern ports continue to underpin its cost advantage into Chinese ports versus US Gulf supplies.

Weather‑wise, no acute stress is currently reported in China’s key soybean belts, and recent port activity suggests normal import flows. In the US Midwest, markets are more sensitive to hot spells during July pod‑setting, but for now weather premiums in Chicago futures appear modest, with recent price gains more driven by positioning and steady Chinese interest than by confirmed crop losses. Overall, fundamentals suggest a balanced market with a mild upward bias rather than a tight, rationing scenario.

Trading Outlook

• Chinese crushers / importers: Maintain a disciplined forward coverage strategy focused on Brazilian origin, using US soybeans opportunistically when spreads to Brazil narrow. Consider incremental bookings from emerging origins (Russia, Ukraine, Africa) only where logistics and quality risks are appropriately discounted.
• Feed producers in Southeast Asia & MENA: Lock in part of Q4 soybean meal needs on current flat‑price weakness, but keep some flexibility in case of US weather‑driven corrections. Premiums for high‑protein or non‑GMO supply are likely to remain firm given limited alternative origins.
• Producers in Brazil & US: Use current near‑two‑year‑high price environment to scale up hedging on a portion of expected 2026/27 output, but avoid over‑hedging ahead of critical US weather and potential demand surprises from China. Basis and freight advantages into China should continue to favor Brazil in marketing decisions.

3‑Day Price Direction (EUR)

For the next three trading days (up to 2026‑07‑06), we expect a slightly firmer to sideways pattern in euro terms:

• China FOB Beijing: Mildly bullish; steady crush demand and firm Brazilian premiums point to a EUR 5–10/tonne upside risk.
• US FOB (No. 2): Neutral to slightly higher; tracking Chicago futures and weather headlines, but with limited immediate supply concern.
• Brazil FOB Santos (reference for China imports): Slight upward bias as export pace remains strong and old‑crop supplies tighten seasonally.