Soybean Complex Under Demand Pressure as Meal Leads and Oil Lags
Soybeans trade sideways as weak US export sales contrast with strong crush and firm soymeal. Palm oil strength and higher Chinese stocks cap upside.
Prices
The CBOT soybean curve on 2 July 2026 shows nearby strength but only marginal net daily moves. July 2026 beans settled around 1,131.75 US‑cent/bu, up 0.49% on the day, while the actively traded November 2026 contract eased 0.13% to 1,147.75 US‑cent/bu, highlighting a very flat structure further out. Deferred contracts into 2027–2029 all posted small daily losses of around 0.3%.
In products, soymeal remains the relative outperformer: nearby July 2026 CBOT meal closed at USD 307.70/short ton (+0.36%), with only marginal declines in the forward strip. By contrast, soyoil is soft: July 2026 settled at 66.95 US‑cent/lb (‑0.10%), and the curve trends gently lower into 2028–2029, underlining structurally weaker oil pricing versus meal.
Physical soybean offers in key origins, converted to EUR using approximate current FX rates, point to modestly firmer basis levels over recent weeks. Recent indicative FOB/CPT prices include:
Supply & Demand
US weekly export sales of soybeans for the week ending 25 June plunged to just 41,786 t of old-crop – a marketing-year low and far below analysts’ expectations of 300,000–650,000 t. New-crop sales reached 182,533 t, also below the consensus range of 350,000–900,000 t, though still almost 17% above the same week last year. Soybean oil even registered a small net cancellation of 1,517 t, underscoring weak offshore appetite for US soyoil.
Soymeal is the key bright spot: combined old- and new-crop export sales of 413,635 t sit at the upper end of market expectations (100,000–500,000 t), helping to support crush margins and favour meal over oil in the product mix. On the domestic side, the latest NASS processing data for May show US soybean crush at 213.1 million bushels, slightly below the 214.9 million bushel consensus but 4.6% above last year. Cumulative crush in the current marketing year totals 1.997 billion bushels, up 8.2% year-on-year.
To reach USDA’s annual crush target of 2.650 billion bushels, processors would need to average around 218 million bushels per month from June through August, compared with about 200 million last year. This implies continued strong domestic demand for beans even as export demand disappoints. FOB US soybean offers currently sit slightly below Brazilian levels, but the market is still waiting for clearer signals of renewed Chinese demand before re-pricing the export balance more bullishly.
Fundamentals & Cross‑market Links
The palm oil complex is providing a floor under vegetable oil markets. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council recently outlined a July price corridor of roughly MYR 4,400–4,650/t (about 920–975 EUR/t), citing an emerging El Niño pattern and reduced Indonesian export availability following the implementation of the B50 biodiesel mandate. Malaysian officials also flag potential 8–10% yield losses this year. However, the upside is capped by elevated inventories in key importers: India’s vegetable oil stocks have climbed to around 2.2 Mt, a 17‑month high, and Chinese holdings are close to 2 Mt, tempering the need for aggressive near‑term restocking.
Within the soy complex, this backdrop favours soymeal relative to soyoil. Robust US meal export sales and firm livestock feed demand contrast with tepid soyoil exports and competition from abundant palm oil and other soft oils. The CBOT forward structure – with meal holding recent gains and soyoil easing along the curve – is consistent with crushers maximising throughput for meal returns while accepting weaker oil realisations.
Weather & Regional Outlook
Weather risk is currently more supportive for the vegetable oil side than for soybeans themselves. In Southeast Asia, forecasts of a strengthening El Niño over the coming months raise concerns about palm oil yields into 2027, even if the immediate impact on production is limited. This reinforces expectations of structurally firmer palm oil prices, which indirectly underpin soyoil values.
For US soybeans, early‑July conditions in the Midwest are mixed but broadly adequate, with markets more focused on demand than on imminent yield threats. As a result, weather headlines are not yet translating into a significant risk premium in CBOT soybeans, though any sustained hot‑dry spell through pod‑setting could quickly change the tone.
Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Months)
- Flat price: Sideways to mildly lower bias for CBOT soybeans as long as US export sales remain weak and crop conditions stay seasonally normal. Rallies are likely to face selling interest unless backed by a clear demand surprise or weather shock.
- Spreads & structure: Modest nearby strength versus deferred months, but no strong inversion. Merchandisers may continue to roll hedges forward rather than pay up for nearby coverage in the absence of logistical stress.
- Products: Maintain a constructive bias on soymeal versus soyoil. Strong meal export demand and firm crush margins favour long meal/short oil strategies within the complex, especially into Q4 2026.
- Physical buyers: Importers of whole beans may use current EUR‑denominated price stability – particularly for US and Ukrainian origins – to extend coverage modestly, while remaining flexible in case of renewed Brazilian competition or a Chinese demand slowdown.
3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)
- CBOT Soybeans (futures, EUR equivalent): Slightly softer to range‑bound; modest downside risk if follow‑through selling emerges after weak export sales.
- DCE Soybeans No. 1 (China, futures, EUR equivalent): Mild upward drift continues, reflecting domestic demand and policy‑driven support but with limited room for sharp gains.
- FOB Physical (US, China, Black Sea, EUR/kg): Stable to marginally firmer basis levels; no major directional break expected over the next 2–3 sessions barring surprise macro or weather news.