China Soybean Imports Slow Month-on-Month While Domestic Prices Edge Higher

China’s soybean market is currently shaped by a sharp month‑on‑month drop in March imports after a strong February, even as domestic FOB prices in Beijing continue to edge higher. Brazil consolidates its role as the main supplier, while U.S. volumes remain constrained by trade issues and Argentina’s shipments retreat with old‑crop exhaustion.

China’s customs data for March 2026 show soybean imports at 4.0192 million tonnes, up 14.7% year‑on‑year but down 32.7% from February, highlighting a temporary tightening of nearby supply despite robust seasonal demand. Brazil remains the largest supplier thanks to a bumper new crop and peak export season, while U.S. arrivals grow month‑on‑month but stay below last year’s levels due to tariffs and trade frictions. At the same time, Argentina’s exports shrink as old‑crop stocks run down and the new harvest is not yet fully available, with Canada also supplying less on a month‑on‑month basis. Against this backdrop, domestic spot prices in China have been grinding higher, supported by firm international futures and stronger vegetable oil demand.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Domestic FOB soybean prices in Beijing have firmed modestly through April. Conventional yellow soybeans rose from about EUR 0.70/kg in mid‑April to around EUR 0.74/kg by 30 April, while organic yellow soybeans increased from roughly EUR 0.79/kg to EUR 0.82/kg over the same period. This steady uptick reflects tighter nearby import availability and higher replacement costs as global futures drift higher.
CBOT soybean futures have seen a slight upward bias in the last few sessions, with open interest gradually declining, indicating some short‑covering and limited fresh selling. Together with firmer soybean oil and comparatively softer meal, this supports crush margins skewed more toward oil value, underpinning whole‑bean prices.

Origin / Type	Location / Term	Latest price (EUR/kg)	1–2 week change (EUR/kg)
China, yellow, non‑organic	Beijing FOB	0.74	+0.02
China, yellow, organic	Beijing FOB	0.82	+0.02
U.S. No.2 soybeans	FOB U.S.	0.59	≈0.00
Ukraine soybeans	FOB Odesa	0.33	≈0.00

🌍 Supply & Demand Shifts

March 2026 customs data underline a complex shift in China’s import structure. Total imports reached 4.0192 million tonnes, up 51.58 million tonnes year‑on‑year, a 14.72% increase, but they were 1.9567 million tonnes lower than in February, a 32.74% month‑on‑month decline. The year‑on‑year growth confirms solid underlying demand from feed and crushing sectors, while the sharp monthly drop signals timing and logistics issues rather than a demand slowdown.

Brazil supplied 1.4041 million tonnes in March, a robust 47.65% year‑on‑year increase, consolidating its position as China’s key origin on the back of a bumper harvest and peak export season. The United States shipped 1.8466 million tonnes, up 27.29% from February but still 24.20% below March 2025 levels, reflecting that political and tariff frictions continue to cap U.S. market share. Argentina’s volume fell to 0.4014 million tonnes, down 74.87% month‑on‑month as old‑crop stocks were depleted and the new crop was not yet fully marketed, while Canada’s 0.2475 million tonnes represented a 49.95% monthly reduction amid supply pacing and changing buyer preferences.

External data corroborate that China’s March imports, although higher year‑on‑year, came in well below earlier market expectations because of delayed Brazilian shipments and stricter inspections. Over the broader October–March marketing window, Brazilian and Argentine supplies to China have risen significantly, while U.S. exports have lost substantial share, underlining a structural re‑orientation of China’s sourcing pattern towards South America.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather

On the supply side, Brazil is completing a record soybean harvest estimated near 178–179 million tonnes, ensuring abundant export availability for the coming months and limiting the upside for international benchmark prices. However, March saw an 18% year‑on‑year drop in Brazilian export pace due to logistics and phytosanitary bottlenecks, which contributed to China’s weaker‑than‑expected March arrivals and to the current, temporary tightening in nearby Chinese supply.

For China’s own soybean‑growing northeast (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning), early‑May forecasts point to seasonally cool to mild temperatures with scattered rainfall, broadly favourable for spring planting progress without major stress signals in the immediate term. (Inference based on current regional forecasts.) At the demand end, crush margins benefit from relatively stronger vegetable oil prices compared with meal, as recent market commentary highlights oil‑led firmness and softer meal, pointing to continued support from biodiesel and food oil demand.

📆 Market Outlook (Next Weeks)

• Short term (next 2–4 weeks): Chinese spot prices are likely to stay mildly firm to sideways as March’s import slowdown tightens nearby availability, even while large Brazilian supply looms in the background.
• Medium term (late Q2 2026): As delayed Brazilian cargoes clear customs and Argentina’s new‑crop beans reach the market, China’s import flow should recover, easing domestic tightness and capping further price rallies.
• Risks: Any renewed logistics disruptions in Brazil, escalation in China–U.S. trade frictions, or adverse planting weather in China’s northeast could temporarily lift prices beyond current fundamentals.

🧭 Trading Recommendations

• Importers / Crushers (China): Consider locking in a portion of Q3 needs on price dips, but avoid over‑coverage given sizeable South American supply and the prospect of smoother Brazilian exports later in the quarter.
• Producers (South America & U.S.): Use current firmness to secure sales on rallies, particularly where logistics capacity is assured, while keeping some exposure to upside linked to potential weather or freight disruptions.
• Speculators: Favour range‑trading strategies in soybeans with a modestly bullish bias in the very near term, while expressing stronger views via spreads (e.g. long oil/short meal) where fundamentals are clearer.

📍 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• China (Beijing FOB, conventional & organic): Mildly firm bias; prices likely to hold near EUR 0.74–0.75/kg (conventional) and EUR 0.82–0.83/kg (organic) with limited upside pending visible import recovery.
• CBOT soybeans: Slight upward to sideways tendency as recent short‑covering and oil strength offset comfortable global supply.
• Black Sea (FOB Odesa): Broadly steady around recent levels near EUR 0.33/kg, with regional geopolitics and freight the main sources of volatility rather than fundamentals.