China Soybean Prices Steady‑Firm as Import Flows Stay Strong

China-origin soybean prices are holding a steady‑to‑firm bias, supported by strong June import arrivals and broadly stable global benchmarks, while benign weather in key producing provinces keeps a lid on any immediate weather premium. Chinese soybean buyers enter late July with comfortable supply after June imports hit a record for the month, largely on heavy Brazilian shipments and the clearance of earlier port delays. Domestic crush demand remains solid, underpinned by a stable outlook for soybean imports and crush in the latest official China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, suggesting no near‑term policy brake on usage. Internationally, CBOT soybeans are underpinned by stronger export demand and a mildly tighter forward balance sheet, but without any acute weather threat. Overall, this leaves CN FOB prices in a narrow range, with limited downside near term unless global futures correct more sharply.

Prices

All prices converted approximately to EUR/mt using current FX levels.

Recent CBOT soybean futures have stayed supported as USDA nudged up export projections and global buyers—especially China—continued to book forward coverage, with front contracts recently trading above the equivalent of 400 EUR/mt at US Gulf on a flat price basis.

Supply & Demand

China’s June soybean imports hit a record for that month, driven by strong Brazilian origin flows and the clearance of previously delayed cargoes, which has replenished coastal stocks and kept crushers well supplied.

Despite the surge in arrivals, Beijing’s latest CASDE report left 2026/27 soybean import and crush forecasts unchanged, signaling confidence in underlying feed demand and no near‑term policy push to curb soybean use. This combination of abundant near‑term supply and steady projected demand explains why domestic FOB prices are broadly stable rather than spiking.

Globally, USDA’s July balance sheet revision modestly raised U.S. export expectations on the back of renewed buying interest from China and others, tightening the forward carry‑out and lending support to international prices. Strong Brazilian shipments continue to dominate China’s import mix, keeping landed costs competitive and limiting upside for domestic Chinese origin relative to imported beans, even as CBOT remains firm.

Weather & Crop Conditions (China Focus)

In Northeast China’s key soybean belt (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning), July has featured seasonally warm temperatures with adequate rainfall, with no widespread reports of extreme heat or prolonged dryness as of late July.

Climatological assessments indicate that, over recent decades, climatic suitability for soybeans has generally improved in parts of Northeast China, with fewer frost days and better heat accumulation, though some central and eastern zones of Heilongjiang and Jilin show slightly reduced suitability. For the immediate 1–2 week horizon, forecasts point to typical midsummer conditions with scattered showers, suggesting low near‑term weather risk for the domestic crop.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Import cushion: Record June arrivals and continued strong Brazil loadings give China a comfortable short‑term cushion, dampening any panic buying in physical CN FOB markets.
• Policy stability: Unchanged official import and crush forecasts support the view of steady structural demand from the livestock and oil sectors, anchoring domestic basis levels.
• External price pull: Firmer CBOT futures, tied to better export prospects and a slightly tighter global balance sheet, are preventing deeper CN price corrections despite ample arrivals.
• Weather risk low near term: No acute weather stress in China’s main soybean regions removes a major upside catalyst for domestic-origin beans in the very short run.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View

• For crushers in China: Use the current stable‑to‑firm market to extend coverage modestly into late Q3, especially for conventional yellow beans, while keeping flexibility to benefit if CBOT softens on improved U.S. weather.
• For farmers and elevators in China: With domestic prices supported by strong import and crush demand, consider incremental forward sales on rallies, but avoid over‑hedging given the potential for further external strength if U.S. weather deteriorates.
• For international sellers: CN origin remains at a premium to Ukrainian and some U.S. supplies; targeting Chinese demand with competitive Brazil- or U.S.-origin offers into coastal China remains attractive while import appetite stays firm.

3‑day directional outlook (in EUR terms, CN focus):

• China, FOB Beijing (yellow, conventional): Sideways to slightly firm; ample nearby supply but supported by firm global benchmarks.
• China, FOB Beijing (organic): Mild upward bias as niche demand and smaller volume keep the organic premium supported.
• International benchmarks (CBOT, FOB Gulf/Brazil): Slightly firm bias, with export demand and weather watching expected to keep dips shallow in the next few days.