China Soybeans: Flat Futures, Softer FOBs as Demand Outlook Turns Cautious

Chinese soybean prices are entering a pause phase: Dalian futures have flattened while Beijing FOB cash levels eased slightly for conventional beans, with organics holding firm. A softer international complex and signals of weaker Chinese import demand for 2026/27 cap the upside, but still‑tight nearby supply and firm crush margins keep a floor under prices. China’s soybean market is now balancing high absolute price levels with a less bullish demand outlook. Dalian No.1 soybean futures for July 2026 closed flat at 4,713 CNY/ton on June 2, indicating a consolidation after earlier gains. Domestic spot prices remain underpinned by limited farmer selling and previously tight supply, even as sentiment has cooled since late May. At the same time, China’s agriculture ministry and independent analysts project lower soybean imports in 2026/27, mainly due to weaker meal use as the pig herd contracts. This combination argues for range‑bound prices in the short term rather than a sharp correction.

Prices & Spreads

On a FOB basis in China (Beijing), yellow non‑organic soybeans are assessed around EUR 0.70/kg, down from roughly EUR 0.72/kg a week earlier, while organic yellow beans are steady near EUR 0.80/kg. (All quoted internal values converted to EUR.) The small week‑on‑week decline in conventional beans mirrors the mild pullback seen in China’s domestic market since end‑May as speculative enthusiasm fades.

Dalian No.1 soybean futures for July 2026 finished the June 2 session unchanged at 4,713 CNY/ton, confirming a sideways pattern rather than a new uptrend. Internationally, CME soybean futures have softened over the last few sessions as initial USDA crop condition ratings, while slightly below expectations, still imply broadly adequate U.S. supply and triggered some long liquidation.

*Converted from 4,713 CNY/t using an indicative rate and 1 EUR ≈ 7.63 CNY.

Supply, Demand & Policy Drivers

China remains the anchor of global soybean demand, with 2025/26 imports forecast at about 103.3 Mmt on steady feed demand from large‑scale pig and poultry farms. However, China’s Ministry of Agriculture now expects imports to fall to roughly 95.5 Mmt in 2026/27 (‑7.6% y/y), driven primarily by weaker soybean meal consumption amid a shrinking pig herd and changes in feed rations.

This transition coincides with still‑tight near‑term crush margins for imported soybeans, which remain positive but compressed for June–September 2026 arrivals, encouraging crushers to be selective in forward coverage. S&P Global also highlights that while China’s soybean import demand has been robust over the past years, the broader protein complex is shifting as Beijing promotes more domestic livestock and diversifies protein sources, potentially tempering incremental soybean needs over time.

Fundamentals & External Markets

On the supply side, U.S. planting is nearly complete, with 87% of soybean area seeded as of June 1 and first crop ratings only modestly below market expectations. This has triggered a slide in Chicago soybean futures as risk premia tied to planting delays are unwound. Adequate early‑season conditions in the U.S. reduce the urgency for Chinese buyers to chase nearby cargoes at elevated premiums.

Within China, Mysteel reports that domestic soybean prices, after rallying strongly since late 2025 on tight supply, have entered a “phased pullback” since end‑May amid softer sentiment and a tug‑of‑war between bulls and bears. The same analysis notes that in the short term, prices will likely trend slightly weaker and be driven largely by trader selling pace and end‑user buying rather than structural shortages.

Weather Snapshot – China Focus

Current market attention in China is turning to spring‑planted soybean areas in the Northeast and Inner Mongolia, where soil moisture and early growing‑season rainfall will influence yield potential. Mysteel highlights these weather variables—planting progress, soil moisture and subsequent precipitation—as key determinants for the next leg in domestic price direction. While no acute weather stress has dominated recent headlines, the market is highly sensitive to any emerging dryness or flooding risks during June–July.

Globally, early U.S. crop ratings and reasonably favorable weather keep downside risk alive for international prices if benign conditions persist into mid‑summer. For China, this implies that import replacement values could soften further, adding gentle pressure on domestic FOB and inland cash values unless local weather issues counterbalance that trend.

3‑Day Outlook & Trading Takeaways

Given the flat Dalian close, mildly weaker global futures and more cautious demand outlook for 2026/27, price action over the next three sessions is likely to be range‑bound with a slight downside bias in China.

Trading Outlook (next 1–2 weeks)

• Importers / Feed mills (CN): Consider staggered coverage rather than aggressive forward buying; positive yet tightening crush margins and softer CME prices argue for patience unless local weather turns threatening.
• Domestic growers (CN): Use current still‑elevated organic and non‑GMO premiums to lock in a portion of 2026 output; the official outlook for reduced 2026/27 imports suggests longer‑term demand support but near‑term downside risk from global supply.
• Speculators: Short‑term strategies may favor selling rallies in Dalian futures while closely monitoring Northeast China weather and any surprise shifts in China’s import policy or U.S.–China trade signals.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (directional, CN focus)

• China FOB (Beijing, conventional soybeans): Slightly softer to sideways in EUR terms, tracking cautious domestic sentiment and easier global values.
• China FOB (Beijing, organic soybeans): Largely stable; niche demand and limited supply continue to support premiums.
• Dalian No.1 soybean futures: Likely to oscillate within a narrow band around current levels, with modest downside risk if U.S. crop conditions remain favorable.