Chinese Buying Lifts Almonds While Australian Pollination Risks Loom
Almond market supported by strong Chinese buying, a recovering India and firm EUR prices, while Australian pollination and weather risks could tighten supply.
Prices
Spot almond kernel prices in EUR remain firm to slightly higher on recent weeks. Converting the latest USD indications, US Nonpareil SSR 27/30 FOB Washington D.C. around 9.25 EUR/kg and Carmel SSR 18/20 FAS about 6.65 EUR/kg both show modest gains versus late July. Spanish material is also edging up, with Marcona 14/16 now near 8.15 EUR/kg FOB Madrid and Valencia 12/14 around 7.20 EUR/kg, reflecting steady Mediterranean demand and limited premium varieties.
*Approximate change vs. mid‑July listings, expressed in EUR.
These gradual price increases are consistent with solid export demand out of Australia and a broadly constructive sentiment across the nut complex. However, buyers remain cautious about overextending coverage before clearer signals emerge on the size and quality of the next Australian crop and on evolving trade dynamics, especially India’s sourcing balance between Australian and US origins.
Supply & Demand
Australian exports to China have surpassed last season’s record during the first four months of the current selling campaign, with cumulative shipments up 14% year on year. This underscores sustained Chinese appetite for Australian almonds and consolidates China’s role as a cornerstone outlet for Australian growers and processors, especially while US product continues to face higher tariffs into the Chinese market.
Indian demand is more uneven. June shipments from Australia to India were 38% higher than a year earlier, signalling a notable monthly rebound. Yet cumulative volumes still trail last season, implying that India must maintain above‑trend purchases in coming months to close the gap. The contrasting trajectories highlight China as the more reliable engine for Australian stock movement so far, while India is in a catch‑up phase that will help determine whether current export strength can be sustained into year‑end.
Old‑crop stock levels and inter‑origin competition are also shaping the balance. Recent Australian agriculture outlooks point to reduced domestic stocks after a strong export program in 2024/25 and firm average export prices, lending the market a supportive floor as long as Chinese demand remains robust and global in‑shell availability is constrained by earlier weather impacts on shell quality.
Pollination & Weather Outlook
Australia has entered its critical almond pollination period, with around 300,000 managed beehives being deployed to orchards. Almond trees are highly dependent on honeybee activity for effective pollination, making weather during flowering a key driver of yield outcomes. Cold, wet or windy conditions can restrict bee flights and reduce fruit set, whereas mild, dry and settled weather typically supports a stronger crop.
Current seasonal outlooks for major Australian almond regions (Sunraysia, Riverland, Riverina) point to relatively warm and drier‑than‑average conditions through late winter, which should generally favour bloom and bee activity if frost events are limited. At the same time, growers must actively manage water and frost risks, and the ongoing varroa mite challenges keep pollination logistics under scrutiny. Overall, the near‑term bias is towards decent pollination, but localised adverse weather could still shave production and tighten next season’s supply.
Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Chinese demand as primary support: Tariff‑free access for Australian almonds into China versus higher duties on US product continues to steer Chinese buying towards Australian origin, helping explain record‑pace shipments and underpinning export prices.
- India’s recovery from a slow start: Strong June imports from India suggest improving demand, but year‑to‑date sales remain below last season. India’s pace over the next few months will be pivotal for clearing remaining Australian old‑crop stocks.
- Stock and quality dynamics: Previous harvest weather issues in some Australian regions constrained the availability of premium in‑shell product preferred by Asian buyers, pushing more volume into kernel channels and supporting kernel price differentials.
- Pollination risk premium: With the new Australian crop at the pollination stage, any turn towards cold or stormy conditions could elevate a risk premium in forward prices, while confirmation of good fruit set later in spring would likely cap further upside.
Trading Outlook
- Importers / roasters: Consider covering a moderate share of Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs now, especially for premium Spanish Marcona and organic Nonpareil, to hedge against potential Australian pollination setbacks and ongoing strong Chinese pull.
- Growers & handlers (Australia, Spain, US): Use the current firm tone and active Chinese buying to advance sales on a scale‑up basis, particularly on standard grades, while keeping some volume unpriced until clearer post‑pollination yield estimates emerge.
- Industrial users: Explore partial origin diversification (mixing US, Australian and Spanish kernels) to optimise cost and quality in case India’s buying accelerates and tightens Australian availability.
3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)
- US kernels, FOB/FAS (Nonpareil, Carmel): Slightly firm to steady; strong Asia demand and limited immediate surplus point to mild upward bias.
- Spanish kernels, FOB (Marcona, Valencia, Guara): Steady to slightly higher, supported by Mediterranean demand and competition from Australian product.
- Australian export values (reference, CIF Asia in EUR terms): Firm, with upside risk if any early pollination concerns emerge or Indian demand accelerates further.