Chinese Millet Market Steady as New Crop Arrives and Buyers Stay Cautious

New-crop millet is starting to arrive in parts of North China, but mills are buying cautiously and mostly living off inventories, leaving spot millet prices broadly stable with some pressure on paddy procurement costs. China’s millet market is entering the transition from old to new crop. In Chifeng, first new paddy millet has appeared only in small volumes, with a more visible increase expected from early September. Old-crop supplies in Shanxi and Hebei at farm level are nearly exhausted, while Inner Mongolia and Liaoning still hold enough stock to cover current consumption. Demand from processors in Hebei (e.g. Shijiazhuang) and production areas is limited to selective, hand-to-mouth purchases, and most mills prefer to process existing inventories. Against this background, industry participants broadly expect finished millet prices to remain stable into next week.

Prices

Market participants report that around 90% of traders and processors see mainstream finished millet prices as stable, with no significant upward momentum expected in the very short term. As new-crop arrivals increase, paddy acquisition costs are anticipated to edge lower, but this is not yet translating into clear price cuts for finished grain.

Export and reference offers in EUR indicate a broadly steady to slightly softer tone for Chinese origins, while Black Sea origins remain at a discount but are mostly unchanged over the past week.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, first new-crop paddy millet is reported in the Chifeng area, but only in scattered quantities. Volumes are expected to increase significantly from early September, which will gradually ease raw-material tightness. In contrast, farm-level old-crop stocks in Shanxi and Hebei are described as almost depleted, with remaining volumes mainly in traders’ hands.

Inner Mongolia and Liaoning still hold adequate old-crop supplies, sufficient to cover current processing demand and prevent any near-term shortage. This regional imbalance keeps internal logistics active but caps any strong price rally. As the harvest progresses, the overall national supply picture is likely to shift from balanced to slightly comfortable.

On the demand side, only a few mills in Hebei (such as around Shijiazhuang) and some processors in producing regions are testing the new crop, mostly on a “buy-as-needed” basis. The majority of plants rely on in-house stocks and show little interest in purchasing additional old grain. Cautious procurement and wait-and-see attitudes dominate, with no signs yet of a demand-driven price push.

Fundamentals & Costs

Procurement costs for paddy millet are expected to decline as new-crop availability improves and mills step back from aggressive buying. With processors focused on working through existing inventories, their bargaining power versus upstream suppliers is increasing, especially in regions where early harvest pressure emerges.

Despite the softening in raw-material costs, finished millet prices remain broadly stable, reflecting balanced fundamentals and the industry’s preference to protect margins rather than chase volume. Survey feedback suggests that, under current supply-demand conditions, mainstream millet prices are very likely to stay flat into next week, with only limited downside risk unless new-crop arrivals surge faster than anticipated.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Weather in major North China millet regions over the coming days is seasonally normal, with no major stress event flagged, so the harvest pace and quality outlook for early fields should remain broadly on track. Under these conditions, the main driver for the market in the very near term will be the scale and speed of new-crop selling rather than weather shocks.

• For mills and domestic buyers: Maintain cautious, hand-to-mouth purchases. With paddy costs expected to edge lower and supply improving, there is limited incentive to build large spot positions now.
• For traders: Basis and regional spreads may offer opportunities, especially between tight old-crop areas (Hebei/Shanxi) and better-supplied regions (Inner Mongolia/Liaoning). Focus on logistics and quality differentiation as new crop flows to market.
• For export buyers: Current CN FOB offers for hulled kernels in the EUR 0.83–0.91/kg range appear broadly in line with fundamentals. Consider scaling in on dips if you have Q4–Q1 coverage gaps, but avoid heavy forward cover until the main harvest price level is clearer.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)

• China (FOB North China ports, hulled kernels): EUR 0.83–0.91/kg, bias: stable to slightly softer as new-crop paddy arrivals slowly increase and mills remain cautious.
• Black Sea (FOB/FCA Odesa, millet seeds/kernels): EUR 0.25–0.61/kg, bias: broadly stable with only marginal moves expected without new external shocks.