Chinese Millet Prices Hold Steady as Weather Turns Seasonally Mild

Chinese FOB Beijing millet prices are flat this week, with both organic and conventional kernels unchanged and trading in a tight range against stable export demand. Benign early‑spring weather in North China keeps production risk low for now, limiting any weather‑driven risk premium. Millet remains a quiet corner of the coarse grains complex, with no major supply shocks or policy moves in China over the past few days. Coarse grain import needs are broadly stable according to recent USDA grain balance updates, and Black Sea logistics continue to function despite ongoing regional security risks, keeping export alternatives from Ukraine available.  

Prices

All prices converted from USD to EUR at ~1 USD = 0.92 EUR and rounded.

Chinese FOB kernel prices are broadly unchanged from last week in EUR terms, reflecting balanced nearby supply and demand. Ukrainian FCA/FOB millet values in Odesa are also stable in EUR, despite continued conflict and intermittent security incidents in the Black Sea that mainly target energy and military infrastructure rather than bulk grain vessels.  

Supply & Demand

On the demand side, China’s overall coarse grain balance remains comfortable, with no sudden shift in official import projections in the latest USDA grain market updates.   Domestic use of millet stays supported by stable feed and food demand but without signs of acute tightness.

From the supply side, Ukraine continues to move grains and oilseeds via Black Sea and overland corridors. While aggregate grain exports are below pre‑war peaks, logistics for minor cereals like millet appear sufficient, with agriculture still contributing close to 60% of Ukraine’s export revenues in 2024.   This keeps an alternative supply origin available to price‑sensitive buyers.

Fundamentals & Weather (CN)

Early spring conditions across key millet areas in North China (including around the North China Plain and Inner Mongolia fringes) are seasonally mild, with no major cold‑wave or drought alerts reported in the last few days. Weather services highlight a transition toward typical late‑March temperatures and adequate soil moisture for upcoming spring sowing of coarse grains.  

Given current stocks and the absence of disruptive weather, the market is not pricing in significant yield risk at this stage. Fundamental support therefore comes more from baseline demand and currency/energy costs than from production fears.

Trading Outlook

• Importers / Feed & food users: With CN FOB millet kernels flat and no short‑term weather threat, consider maintaining hand‑to‑mouth coverage for Q2 while using any brief EUR or freight dips to extend coverage modestly.
• Chinese exporters: Current EUR‑denominated values are competitive versus Ukrainian and Polish offers; locking in nearby sales on a flat market can secure margins before new‑crop discussions intensify.
• European buyers: Use stable Ukrainian FCA Odesa prices as a hedge against any potential freight or insurance spikes linked to Black Sea security events.

3‑Day Price Indication (Direction, CN Focus)

• China – FOB Beijing kernels (organic & conventional): Sideways in EUR over the next 3 days; narrow range trading expected with bids and offers close to current marks.
• Ukraine – FCA/FOB Odesa seeds: Sideways; geopolitical risk remains elevated but no fresh disruption to grain loadings is evident in the very short term.  
• Poland – FCA Kiełczygłow seeds: Sideways; no major region‑specific news to drive abrupt repricing in the coming days.