Chinese Pine Nut FOB Dalian Edges Higher on Tight Nearby Supply

Chinese pine nut FOB prices in Dalian are inching higher but remain range‑bound, reflecting tight nearby supply and only moderate spot demand in export channels. Weather in key producing and logistics hubs is hot and humid but not yet disruptive, keeping the focus on constrained raw material availability rather than short‑term weather shocks. Export-grade kernels from Northeast China continue to trade at elevated levels as the global pine nut balance sheet stays tight after smaller Korean pine crops and limited Siberian-origin availability earlier in the year. International industry data point to a significantly lower 2025/26 global supply versus the previous season, with China’s beginning stocks down sharply and total regional supply reduced, underpinning today’s firm CN-origin offers. Near-term, the Dalian market appears biased mildly upward, with buyers competing for limited volumes ahead of new marketing campaigns in China and abroad.

Prices

The latest indications for Chinese pine nuts FOB Dalian (updated 8 August 2026) show a marginal but broad-based uptick versus early August. Converting from USD to EUR (≈0.91), benchmark offers are:

Both main grades have moved about EUR 0.05/kg higher week‑on‑week, but remain in the middle of their July–August trading range, signaling a gently firmer market rather than a breakout rally.

Supply & Demand

International industry figures compiled in early 2026 show a steep year‑on‑year contraction in pine nut supply for Asia’s main species (Pinus koraiensis, P. sibirica, etc.). For China specifically, 2025/26 total supply is estimated to fall to roughly 60,000 tonnes from about 131,500 tonnes in 2024/25, with ending stocks projected at only about 1,500 tonnes, versus 30,000 tonnes the year before. This confirms that today’s firm CN prices rest on a structurally tighter balance sheet.

Global supply outside Asia (Mediterranean stone pine) is not sufficient to offset this decline; world total pine nut supply in 2025/26 is projected at about 122,700 tonnes, down from 200,175 tonnes in 2024/25. With Chinese consumption of kernels remaining resilient and import flows of Siberian-origin material recovering only gradually, the domestic market is expected to stay tight through at least the first half of the 2026/27 marketing year.

Weather & Logistics (China)

In Dalian, a key export and processing hub for Northeast pine nuts, the 3‑day outlook (9–11 August 2026) is hot and very humid, with daytime highs around 36–39°C and warm nights above 27–28°C. Conditions are uncomfortable for outdoor work but do not currently indicate flooding, strong winds or other acute risks to logistics.

For upstream producing provinces in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, no major storm systems or extreme rainfall events have been flagged in the past few days by national weather and crop bulletins; the broader 2025/26 season for key tree crops and forests in the region has generally benefited from adequate moisture and heat, similar to the patterns that supported record corn yields in the Northeast grain belt last year. As a result, near‑term supply risks are more related to structural tightness and forest resource limits than to immediate weather shocks.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Low stocks, tighter Asia balance: The sharp drawdown in Chinese and broader Asian pine nut stocks between 2024/25 and 2025/26 underpins a high‑price environment, even as prices in Dalian move only gradually week‑to‑week.
• Limited substitution options: Mediterranean and other origins provide some relief but are themselves limited; global 2025/26 supply is projected well below the previous season, reinforcing China’s role as a price leader.
• Stable to firm demand: Domestic Chinese use in snack and bakery segments remains solid, and overseas buyers continue to view pine nuts as a high‑value niche, with little price elasticity in premium channels.
• Macro & FX: With CN‑origin offers typically denominated in USD, movements in EUR/USD will modulate import costs into the euro area; recent FX stability leaves the structural supply story as the dominant price driver.

Trading Outlook

• Short‑term (next 1–2 weeks): Expect a mildly firmer to sideways bias in EUR terms for FOB Dalian, as exporters test small price increases on tight nearby offers but buyers resist aggressive hikes.
• Importers (EU/MENA): Consider covering a portion of Q4–Q1 needs on current dips, as the underlying global stock situation argues against a meaningful correction unless demand weakens.
• Chinese sellers: Gradual, incremental price adjustments appear more realistic than large mark‑ups; securing raw material at origin and managing heat‑related logistics risks in August should be prioritized.

3‑Day Price Indication (FOB Dalian, EUR)

Based on current market conditions, weather and fundamentals, indicative directional outlook for 9–11 August 2026:

• Pine nuts 950, CN FOB Dalian: ≈14.30–14.40 EUR/kg, bias: steady to +0.05 EUR/kg.
• Pine nuts 1200, CN FOB Dalian: ≈13.80–13.90 EUR/kg, bias: steady to +0.05 EUR/kg.

Volatility is expected to remain low in the very near term, with more pronounced moves likely only once clearer signals emerge on the next marketing season’s harvest and export program.