Chinese Pine Nut FOB Dalian Prices Flat as Market Awaits New-Crop Signals

Chinese FOB pine nut prices in Dalian are holding in a narrow range, with no change over the past week and only marginal firming over the past month. Stable weather, orderly raw material flows and steady export demand are keeping the market directionless in the very short term. Spot trading remains largely hand-to-mouth, with buyers cautious about building big positions ahead of clearer indications on the 2026/27 harvest size in Northeast China and neighboring origins. Hot, humid conditions along the Liaoning coast have not yet disrupted logistics, while no major supply shocks have emerged from key producing regions such as Inner Mongolia or Heilongjiang in the last few days. Against this backdrop, pine nuts are trading sideways, with sentiment mildly supported by expectations of continued solid export interest into Europe and the Middle East.

Prices

FOB Dalian prices for Chinese pine nuts are stable, with 950-count material around EUR 14.5–14.9/kg and 1200-count around EUR 14.0–14.3/kg, based on current CN offers converted from USD-level export benchmarks near USD 15.2/kg for Chinese origin. Over the past three weeks, quoted levels in Dalian have effectively been flat, reflecting balanced spot supply and cautious demand.

The absence of fresh macro or freight shocks this week has kept bid–offer spreads tight and liquidity moderate rather than deep. Market participants report that larger-volume business is still possible at small discounts for prompt shipment, but sellers show little urgency to concede on price as long as pipeline stocks remain comfortable and export inquiries continue at a steady pace.

Supply & Demand

China remains the key global supplier of pine nuts, and recent unit-value data around USD 15.2/kg for exports underline its competitive role in world trade. Within Asia, China also absorbs a large share of regional raw material flows from neighboring origins such as Mongolia and Russia, anchoring regional prices despite local harvest variability.

In the last three days, there have been no reports of major weather or policy disruptions in Northeast China that would immediately affect pine nut availability. Provincial updates from Liaoning highlight generally smooth agricultural supply chains and active trade with Belt and Road partners, supporting ongoing export flows through ports such as Dalian. Demand-side, overseas buyers remain sensitive to price after earlier global tightness, but solid underlying consumption in Europe and the Middle East continues to underpin China’s export program.

Weather & Crop Outlook (CN)

For Dalian and surrounding coastal Liaoning, the next three days are forecast to be warm and humid, with highs around 28–30°C, a mix of sun and clouds, and intermittent light showers. These conditions are seasonally normal and do not currently pose a significant threat to harvesting or port operations.

Inland producing areas across Northeast China have not seen any widely reported extreme weather events over the last few days, and there are no fresh indications of a major downgrade to 2026 production potential from regional or international industry bodies. Earlier-season industry expectations still point to a comparatively better 2026 crop versus the previous tight year, which, if confirmed, would gradually ease upward pressure on prices later in the season.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Stock situation: Chinese pipeline stocks are reported as adequate but not burdensome, with processors signaling no immediate need to discount aggressively.
• Export flows: Recent data confirm China’s strong share in global pine nut exports and competitive unit values, helping maintain steady seaborne flows via Dalian.
• Macro & freight: There have been no major freight or currency shocks in the last few days that would materially shift EUR-based replacement costs, reinforcing the current sideways price pattern.
• Competing nuts: Slight firmness in some tree-nut and kernel markets in North China this week suggests limited downside for pine nuts as roasters and packers benchmark relative spreads.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Importers (EU / MENA): Consider covering near-term needs on dips toward the lower end of the current EUR 14–15/kg FOB range, but avoid heavy forward coverage until clearer signals on actual harvest size emerge later this month.
• Chinese exporters: Maintain offer discipline; with no immediate bearish catalyst and stable demand, minor price concessions should be reserved for larger, prompt-shipment parcels.
• Speculative / trading houses: The risk–reward for aggressive short positions looks limited while weather and logistics remain benign; focus instead on basis and spread opportunities between grades and shipment windows.

3-Day Directional View (FOB Dalian, Pine Nuts, CN)

• Price direction: Largely sideways, with a mild upward bias if export inquiries pick up into the weekend.
• 950-count: Expected to trade in a tight band around ≈ EUR 14.5–14.9/kg FOB.
• 1200-count: Expected to hold around ≈ EUR 14.0–14.3/kg FOB, with limited scope for discounts unless unexpected supply appears.